So what happens next?
The most immediate priority for the United States and its allies is to make sense of the rapid changes al Qaeda is undergoing and then make the necessary policy adjustments.
While there are many different dimensions to the course corrections the United States needs to consider, the most important questions are these:
1. Do we believe jihadist warfighting organizations present a national security threat on a similar order to terrorist groups?
[JMM: Jihadist organizations are jihadist organizations - tactics do shift]
2. What policy tools do we need to deal with such organizations?
[JMM: Realistic decisions in each case about our engagement in the "Management of Savagery" would help - see below and above]
3. If such organizations are a national security threat by their nature, does it matter whether a group calls itself al Qaeda or not?
[JMM: No; names can be changed to protect the guilty - The critical question is whether the organization (jihadist or otherwise) is a TVNSA whose violence is directed against the US]
4. How do we address our concerns about these groups without embroiling ourselves in a series of counterproductive wars all over the globe?
[JMM: See "Management of Savagery" below]
5. What can we do to mitigate the risk that future terrorist organizations might emerge as successors to these fighting groups?
[JMM: Probably nothing realistic without attempting to be the World's policeman - Anna Simons footnote below]
As the points raised herein suggest, these are not simple questions -- but the United States must venture answers. The fundamental nature of al Qaeda has shifted, perhaps temporarily, perhaps permanently. But U.S. policies -- most notably the Authorization for the Use of Military Force (AUMF) that empowers the so-called war on terrorism -- remain fixated on the brand name and organization that carried out the 9/11 attacks.
Although these policies allow for broad powers -- perhaps overly broad -- they are geared toward fighting a terrorist mission that has become secondary to our adversaries.
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