Ukraine (closed; covers till August 2014)

[Firn]

Back to Mr Kerry's ultimatum, where the real sanctioning party is not the US (it doesn't have that much trade with Russia), but the EU which does - and which also will be the party taking the negative effects of the sanctions.

So, does Mr Kerry have all of his EU ducks lined up in a row for Monday, or is he wishful thinking and in effect bluffing ?

Regards

Mike

There are two important points:

1) I'm pretty sure that the EU will step up the sanctions, especially after the words and actions of Merkel and her FM. Germany is the big country which will suffer the most from an sanctions battle, but from what I have gathered they know that Russia will suffer far more then they and the EU as a whole. The actions of Putin have been overall a couple of steps too far to just go ahead with the daily business. Of course we have to see.

2) For all the harder talk out of the US (republicans) the financial support from the USA to Ukraine has been far inferior to the EU. Yes I know that there should come 3? bn from the IMF, and I believe that the EU has a greater vested interest but the 1 bn is just a fraction of the EU up to 15 bn $. As Mike rightly pointed out the EU will bear the brunt of a sanction war so a more equally shared monetary burden would be rather welcome. Stabilizing and supporting Urkaine politically, financially and economically should have priority. The US gov can cheaply loan and lend money, and hopefully I won't have to write-off much.

More direct military support by armaments and more should not be ruled out but for now much help for Urkaine and tougher sanctions for Russia seems to be the right approach.


P.S: Personally I think that the pictures of the British documents showing that the wanted to keep the City as protected as possible should have resulted in an diplomatic cost.