Ukraine (closed; covers till August 2014)

[AmericanPride]

At a minimum I would have expected a carrier group and a Marine MEU to be moved somewhere close, either the Baltic or the Eastern Med.

The EU, Great Britain, and the U.S. pride ourselves on the belief that our military activities are always founded in some legal principle. So unless we are directly threatened, we probably cannot militarily affect things on the ground.

Polish troops could easily cross the border. If they were attacked by the Russians it would constitute and attack on NATO. That would seem to have a chilling affect on Putin, but his psychology may read it as a threat and cause him to escalate. It just seems like, while the Ukrainians are taking the threat seriously, no one else is.

It could be that we only get the news from one side, but I am a little confused by how the NATO military side of events is playing out .

I don't think the US, Germany, and UK (1) expect further military conflict in Ukraine, or (2) desire to give any justification for conflict or escalation. There's plenty of money at stake for Western Europe, but Berlin, London, and Paris enjoy the advantage of not having direct borders with Moscow. Their security is not threatened so why escalate it? Germany and France been the firmest opponents to Ukrainian (and Georgian) membership in NATO for this very reason. Sanctions provide some minimal political leverage in the negotiations while also displaying resolve in the face of aggression without actually committing to a path of armed conflict.

Despite all the bluster, I think the Obama administration recognizes the futility of military force in this scenario. Neither the Black Sea or Baltic are ideal operating areas for US naval forces and the proximity to Russia significantly increases vulnerability to counter-attack. This would not signal to Moscow the same message it would send to the capital of a smaller power. Since the Russians already know that the US will not attack, such a gesture would be politically unhelpful and be quickly condemned and dismissed by Moscow as "escalation". Russia would respond in kind with maneuvers of its own, and call Washington's bluff since the Obama administration is not prepared to fight the Russians over Crimea. What then?