Ukraine (closed; covers till August 2014)

[Firn]

It has just dawned on the current Crimea leadership late yesterday in a few local comments that now all food etc must come via ships as the land routes are blocked and nothing has been organized---you will start to see shortages in about ten days since the Russian Army did not plan to support 2M people with the day to day basics.

If there will be no to little international trade directly with the seperatist territory the capacity of the Russian ports in the area could also be a bottleneck apart from the more obvious Crimean ones.

The gravity model of trade flow plus the very specific trade routes (no bridges to Russia), the (former) status as part of Ukraine and the general European flow of trade, explain why the stuff was moved as before of March 2014. The adjustment costs of almost completely cutting the current net of trade interactions and trying to weave them anew should be pretty impressive and mean no smooth ride for the economy...

This is just on top of the other, almost entirely negative shocks coming after it. I don't know how bad it will be but it seems pretty likely that it will be rather bad.