Airliner missing between Malaysia and Cambodia/Vietnam, terrorism possible

[TheCurmudgeon]

It would presumably be the only option so I would think that for whatever reason it wasn't a possibility be it the crew or hardware was no longer operational. Given that the plane will find 0 AGL on its own at some point, I couldn't imagine fighting to get that done until it just wasn't possible or I was dead instead of spending 7 hellish hours waiting to fall out of the sky.

At this point the most probable explination is electrical fire, assuming the timeline is correct. I can discount the strange altitude changes as radar error. But now you start looking at the "if a, then b" sequence. If fire, then you would expect a mayday. None receive, but explainable as crisis in the cockpit along with electrical issues. Yet still, the pilot/copilot had time to puch a new heading into the computer. If I was after the closest airport, then I would want to drop altitude. If I was not sure I could make it I would want to drop altitude and speed.

I don't know, I am not a commercial pilot familiar with proceedure, so I ask.

[Biggus]

I understand the reason for the heading, but why remain at the same altitude. Wouldn't you tell the computer that you were going to land, allowing not only the direction but the altitude of the plane to change automatically. From what I have read the 777 is capable of landing itself if programed. Would you not want to tell the plane that you were going to land, or would that take too much effort?

It'd entirely depend on how that initial couple of minutes played out. You can plug the waypoint in without saying 'I plan on landing here pretty soon' to the FMS. It's not incredibly hard to set a different alt for a given waypoint if you have the time to do it.

It would presumably be the only option so I would think that for whatever reason it wasn't a possibility be it the crew or hardware was no longer operational. Given that the plane will find 0 AGL on its own at some point, I couldn't imagine fighting to get that done until it just wasn't possible or I was dead instead of spending 7 hellish hours waiting to fall out of the sky.

That's more or less my impression, if I'm understanding you correctly. Do what you need to do to get the aircraft to remain airborne (mission accomplished to one degree or another), but die before positive results are evident.

At this point the most probable explination is electrical fire, assuming the timeline is correct. I can discount the strange altitude changes as radar error. But now you start looking at the "if a, then b" sequence. If fire, then you would expect a mayday. None receive, but explainable as crisis in the cockpit along with electrical issues. Yet still, the pilot/copilot had time to puch a new heading into the computer. If I was after the closest airport, then I would want to drop altitude. If I was not sure I could make it I would want to drop altitude and speed.

I don't know, I am not a commercial pilot familiar with proceedure, so I ask.

Communicating 'mayday' is a tertiary objective. You pull those radio circuit breakers (along with a heap of others) ASAP when you're fighting to survive. Getting off the flightpath was one of the first steps you'd take if you're pulling the transponder CB in making sure that your current emergency isn't suddenly made into a secondary issue when you smack into another airliner. You don't wait for the fire to get worse so you can tell everyone where to find your body, you do your best *right now* to ensure that your body remains alive and disable the radio.

In terms of time to plug in a waypoint for the nearest useful runway in the FMS, it's surprisingly quick to do. Only a matter of a few keystrokes. It would probably have been done whilst the other driver was pulling the breakers.

Regarding the altitude radar data, I don't really know what to make of it. I know radar isn't perfectly accurate at times, but I still scratch my head at the track being as wrong as it apparently was. I have heard that the subsequent descent was staggered which would make sense, but I am unsure that this was confirmed.

Dropping speed and alt aren't necessarily a good thing in an emergency. If I thought there was a risk that I'd be gliding soon and I wasn't spoiled for choice in terms of places to land, I probably wouldn't slow down and descend. If you lose motive power, altitude gives you a chance to maintain a glide. If you descend, you no longer have the altitude to trade for lateral speed, and your glide will soon become a stall from which you can't recover.

[AmericanPride]

How is it known what inputs were placed in the navigation computer? The electrical fire theory can't be ruled out from what I know of the situation, but it seems to not be consistent with the flight pattern and lack of surface debris. Also, if there was a electrical fire that disabled the cockpit and crew, what prevented it from spreading over the next 7 hours?

[anotherguy]

That's more or less my impression, if I'm understanding you correctly. Do what you need to do to get the aircraft to remain airborne (mission accomplished to one degree or another), but die before positive results are evident.

Should have read "couldn't imagine NOT fighting."

[slapout9]

Interesting interview of Retired USAF General Tom McInerney about how missing flight 370 is in Pakistan. Second time in a row he has made this statement.

http://dailycaller.com/2014/03/19/re...-in-pakistan/#!

[ganulv]

Interesting interview of Retired USAF General Tom McInerney about how missing flight 370 is in Pakistan. Second time in a row he has made this statement.

http://dailycaller.com/2014/03/19/re...-in-pakistan/#!

What a wingnut.

[jcustis]

Good grief. Someone needs to keep him from getting in front of a microphone.

[slapout9]

What a wingnut.

Maybe he is and then again maybe not. We did it to Korean Flt. 007 why not Malaysian Flt. 370?
http://foxnewsinsider.com/2014/03/19...countrys-calls

[anotherguy]

I think we have reached or are getting close to the point where any useful information that is going to be made public is already out there unless the plane reappears in one way or another. All the "experts" are coming out of the woodwork to get air time and column inches and the media isn't done with the story so now they are willing to run whatever someone who is tangentially qualified has to say on the issue.

That said, I would be willing to bet that there is a fair amount of information that will not be made public.

[davidbfpo]

Given the reported sighting over the Maldives, I wonder if their air traffic radar was working at that time of the morning. If anyone else comes forward to say "me too", after all there are tourists there. Seems a logical place to calculate potential flying time left and conduct a SAR search.

[TheCurmudgeon]

Well, she went somewhere. While the odds are with an electrical fire, we can not rule out that it was taken by unknown parties for a purpose yet to be disclosed.

[AmericanPride]

Well, she went somewhere. While the odds are with an electrical fire, we can not rule out that it was taken by unknown parties for a purpose yet to be disclosed.

I'm skeptical of the electrical fire theory primarily because of the maneuvers of the aircraft after it crossed the Malaysian Peninsula. In the 1.5 hours after the last radio contact, the aircraft turned West, crossed the Peninsula, and then turned northwest, where it disappeared from radar. Also, it appears that the band based on the last satellite signal is consistent with the location of the last transponder message east of the Peninsula, whereas the last radar contact had the aircraft heading northwest after having crossed the Peninsula. But I'm not a pilot or geo-spatial analyst, so my amateur reading of the images could very well be incorrect.

Is it possible that an electrical fire disabled a combination of systems that enabled the crew to fly (in the sense of remaining airborne) but not navigate or communicate? If the turn was due to computer programming and in search of a sanctuary airport, what happens to the aircraft when (1) the auto-pilot cannot physically direct the aircraft to the programmed location or (2) the auto-pilot misses the destination and/or runs out of waypoints?

[former_0302]

Update just came across Fox News at 2025 PDT that the Aussies have found two "objects" that they think may be from the plane... FWIW. No info about location other than "off the coast of Australia." You'd think they'd be pretty sure if they're going to release that statement though...

EDIT: Apparently it comes from the Australian PM.

[Biggus]

How is it known what inputs were placed in the navigation computer? The electrical fire theory can't be ruled out from what I know of the situation, but it seems to not be consistent with the flight pattern and lack of surface debris. Also, if there was a electrical fire that disabled the cockpit and crew, what prevented it from spreading over the next 7 hours?

AFAIK ACARS will normally upload information about the waypoint currently active, and the next one.

Perhaps pulling the breakers was enough to put it out, but only after the situation had killed the crew. That's the only way I can see it happening.

Given the reported sighting over the Maldives, I wonder if their air traffic radar was working at that time of the morning. If anyone else comes forward to say "me too", after all there are tourists there. Seems a logical place to calculate potential flying time left and conduct a SAR search.

The Maldives sighting was apparently false.

Is it possible that an electrical fire disabled a combination of systems that enabled the crew to fly (in the sense of remaining airborne) but not navigate or communicate? If the turn was due to computer programming and in search of a sanctuary airport, what happens to the aircraft when (1) the auto-pilot cannot physically direct the aircraft to the programmed location or (2) the auto-pilot misses the destination and/or runs out of waypoints?

It depends entirely on how the FMS is programmed and whether the AP mode has been changed from following the FMS plan to a simple heading mode at some point. If it's just been an inserted waypoint in an active flight plan, then you'd expect the aircraft to carry on towards the subsequent waypoints following the inserted point. As to what happens when you run out of waypoints, I don't know. It's not something that I've fiddled much with.

The turn to the west is consistent with providing the crew with the best chance at a shot at landing at Langkawi or Penang, which would be safer than heading back to Kuala Lumpur, which has a few high ridgelines to clear.

Update just came across Fox News at 2025 PDT that the Aussies have found two "objects" that they think may be from the plane... FWIW. No info about location other than "off the coast of Australia." You'd think they'd be pretty sure if they're going to release that statement though...

EDIT: Apparently it comes from the Australian PM.

There's been a few P-3 sorties out there today, and as far as I know there's an RNZAF P-3 out there now. Apparently the weather isn't particularly favourable for a search, but if nothing else they'll be dropping sonobuoys and listening for ELT signals.

Hopefully this will be resolved soon. I won't hold my breath, though.

[AmericanPride]

The debris was apparently spotted by satellite and a Norwegian vessel is on scene now.

The turn to the west is consistent with providing the crew with the best chance at a shot at landing at Langkawi or Penang, which would be safer than heading back to Kuala Lumpur, which has a few high ridgelines to clear.

I understand that, hence my questions concerning navigation etc, since it is clear the aircraft either did not intend to land at either of those locations or that it was unable to do so due to technical failures or crew incapacitation. If the aircraft cannot physically be directed to the waypoints in the auto-pilot, does auto-pilot shut off or does it attempt to navigate the aircraft towards the waypoint and the aircraft ends up trying to fulfill that destination? I.e. if it had to turn 70 degrees but could only turn 30, would it turn 30 or would it shut off?

[Biggus]

If the aircraft cannot physically be directed to the waypoints in the auto-pilot, does auto-pilot shut off or does it attempt to navigate the aircraft towards the waypoint and the aircraft ends up trying to fulfill that destination? I.e. if it had to turn 70 degrees but could only turn 30, would it turn 30 or would it shut off?

(Preface: I've never tried to plug a set of WPs into any FMS that were going to require the sort of flightpath we're talking about here. With that said, here's what I believe having spent a little time on a few sims and way too much time looking at FMC/S documentation.)

The AP won't shut down at that point. If you're that close to the waypoint that you are going to require a very large direction change to reach it, then it would likely consider that waypoint as being overflown and activate the next one.

I've been doing a little bit of reading on the 777-200's FMS today. I've just learned that when out of waypoints, the AP will hold the last heading.

I've also heard a bit of speculation regarding the search area 1500nm off Perth. 40.7140° S, 85.6494° E roughly. When you change the 'S' to an 'N', you end up with a coordinate somewhere in Xinjiang province. Read into that what you will. Grasping at straws, or hijacking fumbled by a typo.

[AdamG]

Interesting take from the Malaysian press -

Malaysia's missing-plane crisis has exposed the shortcomings of a ruling regime already wrestling with a rapidly shrinking support base, fierce racial divisions and international criticism of its tough handling of political opponents.

The same government has ruled since Malaysia's birth in 1957, and political observers said its much-criticised response to the jet drama is symptomatic of years of institutional atrophy under an ethnic Malay elite known for cronyism.

Analysts said rancour over the still-unexplained disappearance of Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370 and its 239 people, two-thirds of whom were Chinese, could also complicate plans to draw closer to China – Malaysia's biggest trading partner and a growing source of tourist revenue.

http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/m...vernments-woes


Did we set up a betting board yet for "Most Likely/Most Dangerous"?

[davidbfpo]

I appreciate SAR missions can and often involve unexpected partners, but the arrival at Perth, Western Australia of two Chinese IL-76 planes must be an example:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...-happened.html

[carl]

P-8s and IL-76s, both jets. I would imagine, but don't know, that this kind of search would require flying at low altitude fairly slowly. The Australian and New Zealand P-3s can do that without a huge increase in fuel consumption but normally jets can't. It will be interesting to see how the jets do in comparison to the turboprops since we are going to jets for the maritime patrol role.

[jcustis]

It would seem the Chinese jets are there to provide stores for the task force it has sent to the region, or at least to support some other sort of package.