Sunni Political Participation in Iraq

[jcustis]

The turn to the tribes is understandable and has offered immediate gains. It is also Faustian in nature. The tribes are not interested in the long term status of an Iraqi nation. They are interested in the long term status of the tribes.

Perhaps the best balance would be to take a chapter from Saddam's playbook, eh?

Keep the dominance of the tribes intact, and allow them to maintain the same (or at least similar) free reign they did under Saddam. If I remember correctly, he maintained their allegiance through economic concessions, pseudo-autonomy in certain realms, and turned a blind eye to the occasional smuggling ventures. Now, we couldn't possibly be that laid back about it, but unless the central government is able to give those economic guarantees after the coalition has backed away, there aren't going to be enough carrots for the coaxing. This is just another nut we have to crack, and I wonder how much the PRTs are working on this issue.

I see what you're saying Tom, and in those Tatooine-like places of Rutbah, Qaim, and Husaybah, the folks there have always lived on the fringe and done pretty much their own thing. It came at the price of a culture of graft and corruption, mind you, but I agree that the sense of an "Iraqi Nation" was probably never all that strong.

And I see what you're saying goesh. Saudi Arabia's intentions, should full-blown civil war kick off, have been beaten to death by the bloglist. What if there are back channel discussions going on right now, where other states (to include the Kingdom) are providing assurance that if Al Anbar solidifies itself as a recalcitrant break-away province, the Sunnis there will be taken care of through infusions of hard cash? The model has worked before with Hamas

[tequila]

Sunnis give al-Maliki one week to rein in Shiite militias.

...


But Sunni politicians said Tuesday that they're serious about pulling out of parliament over what they say is Maliki's reluctance to share power. Maliki is a Shiite.


Meanwhile, rumors are swirling that loyalists of anti-American cleric Muqtada al-Sadr also are considering breaking away from the Shiites' United Iraqi Alliance in the legislature, a move that would rob that ruling political bloc of its slim majority.


Sadr followers denied that, but they said the cleric has asked them to reach out to rival Sunni groups.


The threat to the Maliki government comes as sectarian violence appears to be on the rise. On five of the last seven days, the number of unidentified bodies found on Baghdad's streets has surpassed 25, a significant increase over previous weeks.


U.S. officials have cited the decline of bodies as evidence that the surge of U.S. troops into Baghdad was succeeding in calming violence. U.S. officials have said easing violence would help Maliki's government reach a political solution to the tensions.


But a weaker Maliki government would make that outcome less likely.

The threat to Maliki's government from the Sunnis - who could find themselves shut out of the government should Maliki call their bluff - surfaced in a meeting between the prime minister and Vice President Tariq al-Hashemi on Monday night.


Hashemi later told CNN that unless crucial changes are made to the constitution in the next week and Maliki clamps down on Shiite militia violence against Sunnis, he'll leave the vice presidency and yank 44 Sunni politicians from the 275-member parliament.


"I will tell my constituency frankly that I have made the mistake of my life when I put my endorsement to that national accord," Hashemi said, referring to the agreement that led to Maliki's ascension to the prime minister's post.


Hashemi said that particularly important to his faction are constitutional guarantees that bar partitioning of the country into federal states that would split territory among Sunni, Shiite and Kurdish areas - a move widely seen to put Sunnis at a disadvantage. Although Sunnis flourished under the Baathist regime of Saddam Hussein, today they hold sway only in areas of the country where the promise of oil reserves is poorest.

Hashemi is also calling on Maliki to disarm Shiite militias, which are seen as responsible for sectarian killings and displacement of Sunnis.



Without the Sunni vice president active in the government, the hope of bridging the increasingly violent split between majority Shiites and minority Sunnis becomes dimmer. And pressure is only increasing on the prime minister to broaden his government to all sects ...

[UCrawford]

It's not going to happen, at least not in any permanent kind of sense. Al-Maliki depends on the militias to support his coalition. His security forces are thoroughly infiltrated by the militias. If he goes against them the best he can hope for is that he'll just get pushed out of office...but it's just as likely he'd end up dead.

Plus, all of this assumes that he even wants to rein the militias in. And why should he as long as he's got the U.S. military there to protect him from the consequences of Sunni retaliation?