JMA---IMO I view the US troop draw down as a not to subtle signal to Russia that the US was in fact no longer interested in the European area. If you look at the European NATO countries they have all gone to volunteers and reduced their size and military spending as "peace and stability had broken out" and although they did support in some ways in Iraq and AFG they were on a glide path of military reductions overall. Couple that with the US pulling out and couple that with a complete Russian military rebuild with new weapons and a professional army you have in effect the creation of a regional superpower that has nuclear weapons and that can indeed threaten all of Europe as the so called "unipolar" US was not in a position nor did it really want to play any longer the strong man in Europe so we are where we now are.
When the largest standing Army in Europe is now the Turkish Army then we are in real trouble.
If you notice there is nothing on the military card being played outside of proposed and or actual planned exercises-and talk--only the movement of aircraft which was responded by the Russian AF stepping up their activities---so really not much in the way of military card---all even including Germany have shut out a military response out of fear of triggering something that is uncontrolled breaking out.
This is historically the second time that the US has signaled to Russia ie the Soviet Union that US interests/intentions did not expand to specific areas.
If I recall ---not sure which major Allied Conference---believe it was Yalta then the US signaled that Korean was not in 'it's sphere of influence"---to which a startled Stalin asked twice for clarification.
Some say this in fact triggered the NK invasion as Stalin felt we were not interested in the outcome of Korea.
By taking troops, depots, material out of Europe we indirectly/inadvertently signaled basically the same thing.
Straight diplomacy alone ---and I am going out on a limb here has not achieved anything on any specific world political problem since 1999---if one looks hard it has been in combination with military force and or a tight set of economic sanctions.
So I am hard pressed to understand why this WH thought diplomacy was all one needed for soft power.
Bookmarks