I apologize as I am a latecomer here, but after reading the last few pages of the thread I have a few observations:
1. What is our interest in these events? The Ukraine is not a NATO state nor have they asked for our protection, so our interest is not based on any security agreements. The Crimea is not of strategic interest to the United States we have no military interest there. Although the ghosts of the past are not far from our memory, the USSR is gone. The global workers revolution that Communism actively supported is no more. So at this point it would appear that our only interest in this Russian aggression is directed toward Putin himself and the ghosts of both Soviet expansionism and the failures of Europe to act against Hitler in 1938.
2. Since we have not been asked to the party, short of a declaration of war, military intervention in the Ukraine is off the table. That does not mean we don’t plan. For all we know the Ukrainians, realizing the ramifications of an open announcement of their intent to join NATO, are waiting until the situation calms down. However, military action cannot be the first option, for a multitude of reasons.
3. If we have determined that Putin is a threat that is not going away soon and are going to become interested in establishing a new Iron Curtain on the Polish border then we better figure out how to pay for it. The Soviet Union collapsed, in part, because it could no longer afford to support its military. We are very close to that. Without the political will to raise taxes to pay for it, our military will continue to shrink. We need to determine what it is we need and fund it. I have no problem moving two heavy brigades, a fighter wing or two, and a small naval presence, into Poland if they are willing to pay for housing them. I think we can redirect some of that military aid from Egypt to Poland, they could use the Tanks more than the Egyptians can. But others have to come to the table and we will have to make compromises elsewhere (dump the F22, keep the Warthog)
We have to realize that we can’t pay for and protect everything. If Putin is an real threat, as he appears to be, then we need to position ourselves to deal with him. Sanctions are definitely one part of this, but how does the “action-reaction-counteraction” play out. How will Putin spin the actions, what are his likely reactions, how will we deal with them? Perhaps we need to yield space for time and begin to prepare for the long haul. We cannot afford another military engagement now. After twelve years of war we have neither the money nor the public support. Putin knows this. He took advantage of it in Georgia and he did again now. At least this time this administration is taking some action, unlike Bush did. But we need to consider the likely reaction. If his political support starts to wane how will he react? What will he do to consolidate power? Do we really think he is just going to give in, or will he raise the stakes? This is not just the Crimea. We have to figure out how to contain Putin and how we are going to deal with him, not just now, but for the next 10-20 years.
If this is a game of Chess with the Russian Bear, then we have lost the first two opening gambits. Now we need to position ourselves to deal with our opponent. That may take many moves over many years to establish the conditions for checkmate. We are not there yet.
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