Airliner missing between Malaysia and Cambodia/Vietnam, terrorism possible

[Biggus]

I appreciate SAR missions can and often involve unexpected partners, but the arrival at Perth, Western Australia of two Chinese IL-76 planes must be an example:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...-happened.html

There's a rumour that the Chinese jets landed at Perth instead of RAAF Pearce, despite some fairly serious protests by the ATC. This may be a very interesting cooperative SAR effort.

P-8s and IL-76s, both jets. I would imagine, but don't know, that this kind of search would require flying at low altitude fairly slowly. The Australian and New Zealand P-3s can do that without a huge increase in fuel consumption but normally jets can't. It will be interesting to see how the jets do in comparison to the turboprops since we are going to jets for the maritime patrol role.

As a lifelong Orion (and Neptune) fan, I have a hard time believing what I'm about to say: I think this is probably one area where the Poseidon may have an advantage. It will have shorter transit times to the area of operations, it is able to be refuelled in-flight, and it's capable of carrying a relief crew. It's not the world's worst choice for this particular case. It might be butt-ugly, graceless and devoid of character, unsuited to low-level work just above the waves, but it does have a few upsides.

What good the Chinese are going to do remains to be seen. I understand they lost a Y-8 in the sort of weather conditions to be expected out over the search area some time ago. I am cautiously optimistic that everyone will work from the same sheet of music.

[jcustis]

Biggus,

As you are about to shift into your winter, when does that transition typically hit? Is there any appreciable effect on the open water out in the current search area (i.e. is there a race against Mother Nature's clock as well?)?

[carl]

A thought occurred to me. The airplane appears to have been flown into one of the most remote parts of the world's oceans. If it was intentional and not because of an accident, whoever headed it out there must have known how out of the way it was. Why would they have done that?

[Biggus]

Biggus,

As you are about to shift into your winter, when does that transition typically hit? Is there any appreciable effect on the open water out in the current search area (i.e. is there a race against Mother Nature's clock as well?)?

Tough call, I haven't spent enough time on the west coast to really say. I know that it's rough in the search area at the best of times, but I couldn't give you an accurate answer.

A thought occurred to me. The airplane appears to have been flown into one of the most remote parts of the world's oceans. If it was intentional and not because of an accident, whoever headed it out there must have known how out of the way it was. Why would they have done that?

Well, suicide whilst preserving a life insurance policy would probably be a good explanation if it was intentional and malicious.

[davidbfpo]

An explanation from Inmarsat how they concluded the flight ended in the Indian Ocean off Australia:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technolog...own-MH370.html

I note this passage negates the data passed back to Rolls Royce:

..one of Inmarsat’s satellites continued to pick up a series of automated hourly 'pings' from a terminal on the plane, which would normally be used to synchronise timing information.

[davidbfpo]

Apparently Rolls-Royce engines are all equipped with a box that transmits automatically, probably each hour, a variety of data: engine data, position data, instructions and a unnamed function. Airlines are aware the box is fitted and it would be visible in any strip-down, but the box remains R-R property. Malaysian Airlines did not pay R-R for this data to be transmitted, collected and analysed. Some nations insist - legally - that this data be collected.

[slapout9]

A thought occurred to me. The airplane appears to have been flown into one of the most remote parts of the world's oceans. If it was intentional and not because of an accident, whoever headed it out there must have known how out of the way it was. Why would they have done that?

In one case it would be to destroy evidence. This could be true for a pure criminal activity as well as some type of terrorist plan that went wrong. Or to just make a mess, similar to a mass murder type situation where the whole point is to cause pain, which is why being logical is not going to get you very far when it comes to a motive.

[Dayuhan]

Sober assessment of the challenges of finding the airplane:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...ssal-task.html

We can speculate all we want on the question of why anyone would deliberately fly the plane into an empty ocean. There remains a strong possibility that it was not done deliberately, that a bungled hijack, fire, or other failure left the crew and passengers dead or incapacitated and the plane ran on its own until the fuel ran out. To me that looks like the "Occam's Razor" explanation, but of course we won't know until the plane is recovered.

This incident could result in the introduction of automated systems that would send alerts or activate independent tracking systems if a pilot s incapacitated. Heavy equipment manufacturers are already introducing systems that monitor operators for signs of fatigue, seems entirely possible to adapt those for aircraft.

I've seen it mentioned that data recorders only record data for the last 60 minutes of flight, and may have erased the relevant sections. Does anyone know why that's the case? Given the state of compact data storage these days it's hard to believe that they can't include enough capacity to record data for an entire flight.

[Biggus]

Apparently Rolls-Royce engines are all equipped with a box that transmits automatically, probably each hour, a variety of data: engine data, position data, instructions and a unnamed function. Airlines are aware the box is fitted and it would be visible in any strip-down, but the box remains R-R property. Malaysian Airlines did not pay R-R for this data to be transmitted, collected and analysed. Some nations insist - legally - that this data be collected.

This link may provide some useful information on the topic.

The system you are speaking of is tied in with ACARS and primarily (and likely only) uses ACARS to report on systems health via a number of different mediums (VHF, HF and SATCOM). There are airline-specific procedures that might or might not force the ACARS system to report by SATCOM only. My understanding is that MAS is not subscribed to the SATCOM reporting feature, but is subscribed to one of the VHF/HF ground based services. I am trying to get my head around why MAS might try to force ACARS into a transmission mode that it isn't subscribed to, and I haven't yet arrived at a satisfactory answer.

I believe we will see some changes in the operation of ACARS as a result of this event. I sincerely hope that whatever changes are made don't contribute to the risk of future losses. Every time I hear a talking head demanding that transponders become a system that cannot be turned off from the cockpit, I feel somewhat nauseous.

I've seen it mentioned that data recorders only record data for the last 60 minutes of flight, and may have erased the relevant sections. Does anyone know why that's the case? Given the state of compact data storage these days it's hard to believe that they can't include enough capacity to record data for an entire flight.

Part of the issue is that while data storage is incredibly cheap generally in comparison to a decade ago, FDR and CVR systems need to be able to withstand fairly massive impact (I believe the spec is in the range of 15+G) amongst other things. Airlines are not known for spending a cent more than they need to these days, unfortunately. I do not doubt that larger data storage equipment that can withstand the demands of FDR and CVR specs exist, but without some sort of legal requirement to upgrade, I doubt that we will see much change. This isn't the first time where such an improvement would be beneficial, and it probably won't be the last.

[flagg]

Sober assessment of the challenges of finding the airplane:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...ssal-task.html

We can speculate all we want on the question of why anyone would deliberately fly the plane into an empty ocean. There remains a strong possibility that it was not done deliberately, that a bungled hijack, fire, or other failure left the crew and passengers dead or incapacitated and the plane ran on its own until the fuel ran out. To me that looks like the "Occam's Razor" explanation, but of course we won't know until the plane is recovered.

This incident could result in the introduction of automated systems that would send alerts or activate independent tracking systems if a pilot s incapacitated. Heavy equipment manufacturers are already introducing systems that monitor operators for signs of fatigue, seems entirely possible to adapt those for aircraft.

I've seen it mentioned that data recorders only record data for the last 60 minutes of flight, and may have erased the relevant sections. Does anyone know why that's the case? Given the state of compact data storage these days it's hard to believe that they can't include enough capacity to record data for an entire flight.

Where's Malcolm Gladwell and his Wisdom of Crowds when we need him?

I remember in his book he used the example of the USS Scorpion and the use of bayesian Search Theory/Wisdom of Crowds(specialist).

[surika]

Flight MH370 took off from Kuala Lumpur at 12:41 a.m. Saturday en route to Beijing. Somewhere between Malaysia and Vietnam, the plane carrying 227 passengers and 12 crew members lost contact with ground controllers.

http://www.ctvnews.ca/world/mystery-...#ixzz2vg6fEyRg

Still no trace of the aircraft repoprted, search in its 3rd day.

I don't know where, but today I read that they somehow catched a signal that, judging from the canal it was on, must be said black box.. or at least they're pretty sure about it

[davidbfpo]

The interpretation of data is not always a smooth path, nor scientific. A WSJ article 'Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 Search Zone Poised for Another Shift: Uncertainties About Speed, Altitude Affect Calculations for Target Area':http://online.wsj.com/news/article_e...MDAwODEwNDgyWj

[Firn]

Sadly Occam's Razor points, like in the case of MH370 and others before, towards another deliberate crash. The BBC asks Who, What, Why: How are cockpit doors locked? The embedded video makes it quite easy to understand...

After 9/11, changes were made to the security of cockpits in an effort to make hijackings more difficult. According to the US Federal Aviation Authority, doors should typically be tough enough to withstand a grenade blast. They are usually left locked throughout the flight.

The high level of security against an outside threat makes it impossible to enter if somebody inside the cockpit desires so. The risk of a deliberate crash, among other factors is likely greatly reduced by strict enforcement of the rule of two. In this case it seems that the co-pilot was alone for a many minutes with the door locked during which time the autopilot was manipulated into crashing.

Wrapping it up there have been a considerable numbers of cases in the last twenty years in which the pilots are at least suspected to have crashed their plane deliberately. Terrorism has led to a extremely costly and very intrusive response around the world and especially in the USA. It surprises* me that at least in Europe the institutional reaction to suspected 'massacres-by-pilots' which might have gone a long way towards reducing that low threat much further while spending not even a fraction of the anti-terrorism costs was not stronger and smarter.

*There obviously some explanations coming into one's mind, but I wonder what others think.

[Firn]

I find that quote remarkable:

According to cockpit voice recordings reported by the International Business Times, the co-pilot left to use the bathroom, and when he returned, he found the door shut. Inside, the pilot had switched the plane’s altitude reading from 38,000 feet to ground level, IBT reports. Recordings show someone pounded on the door to the cockpit as the plane plummeted. Investigators later concluded the plane had crashed because of “intentional actions by the pilot.”

Why? Because it is from an article written one year ago, following the tragedy of MH370 and talking about the Mozambique Airlines E-190 crash of 2013.

[davidbfpo]

A cautionary comment from Mental Health Cop, a British police inspector who has specialised in mental health:https://mentalhealthcop.wordpress.co...ure-or-degree/

Here is one passage:

By now, it may be easy to forget that when papers went to press on Thursday night, we still knew comparatively little about the pilot of the doomed flight. We certainly did not know that he appears to have ripped up sick notes that were relevant to the day of the crash or what kind of condition they related to – we still don’t, as the German police have not confirmed it. Whilst we did have suggestion that he had experience of depression and ‘burnout’ – whatever that means – we don’t know the nature or degree of this, do we?