Outlaw, there is no doubt that Russia needs high commodity prices to finance it's budget. From it's production costs, especially in the future and it's budget position Russia is in a dangerous spot in the oil market.
The big technical challenges force high investments with human capital, financial capital and technology for good reasons coming almost only from Western companies. So any disruption there will lower the future Russian output. Personally I think that an engineered negative (higher prices) supply shock is less likely because the many oil-rich countries have much higher budget expenditure due to (much) higher populations and higher standard of living. See a bit of the Saudi one.
Of course oil is just a part of the commodity picture. In the important natural gas market only lots of CAPEX will allow it to switch in the long run to other costumers.
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