Ukraine (closed; covers till August 2014)

[JMA]

Luttwak has it just about perfectly right:

The paradoxical logic of strategy contradicts the logic of everyday life, it goes against all normal definitions of intelligence we have. It only makes sense if you understand the dialectic. If you want peace, prepare for war. If you actively want war, disarm yourself, and then you’ll get war. Virile and martial elites understand that kind of thinking instinctively.

And for the yanks by the yanks...

"To be prepared for war is one of the most effectual means of preserving peace."
- George Washington

"I never advocated war except as a means of peace."
- Ulysses S. Grant

"Peace, above all things, is to be desired; but blood must sometimes be spilled to obtain it on equable and lasting terms."
- Andrew Jackson

Mark, There's a million more such as

Not that I agree with that one, rather this one considering where we are with the Ukraine and American admin...

[davidbfpo]

From FP email:

The Pentagon's top commander in Europe just called out the Russians. Gen. Philip Breedlove took to the blogosphere yesterday and called Russia's use of armed, masked men to assert control over Ukraine in recent weeks. In a post titled "Who Are the Men Behind the Masks?" he asserted the following: "It's hard to fathom that groups of armed men in masks suddenly sprang forward from the population in eastern Ukraine and systematically began to occupy government facilities. It's hard to fathom because it's simply not true. What is happening in eastern Ukraine is a military operation that is well planned and organized and we assess that it is being carried out at the direction of Russia."
On what did Breedlove base his conclusion? Several things. Among them: The "activists in eastern Ukraine "exhibit tell-tale military training and equipment and work together in a way that is consistent with troops who are part of a long-standing unit, not spontaneously stood up from a local militia." They also handle their weapons with great care, coordinate the use of tear gas and stun grenades, under the control of specific commanders on the ground, launch coordinated operations, and carry weapons and equipment that is primarily issued by the Russian army. "Any one of the points above taken alone would not be enough to come to a conclusion on this issue, but taken in the aggregate, the story is clear," Breedlove wrote

Taken from NATO website:http://aco.nato.int/saceur2013/blog/...the-masks.aspx

It also has four links - about to view them. One article (the 4th link) refers to a Ukrainian website that looks interesting:http://ukraineinvestigation.com/arme...-in-slovyansk/

[JMA]

David, Breedlove is too honest and outspoken for the good of his career... the current WH is not big on honesty.

Interesting comment:

In my blog last month I spoke about the importance of identifying the Russian troops in Crimea. Today, the Russian president has finally admitted that Russian troops were there after denying it repeatedly early on. Also today he claimed that the idea of Russian forces in eastern Ukraine was "rubbish.” I would ask that you keep this in mind as you consider your answer to the question "Who are the men behind the masks in eastern Ukraine, today?”

the question is, how long can an honest man keep his job in today's America.

From FP email:

Taken from NATO website:http://aco.nato.int/saceur2013/blog/...the-masks.aspx

It also has four video links - about to view them. certainly better than the wife's TV "soaps".

[Stan]

Actually, he got his info from Estonia in 2007 and just last week from McCain's visit.

Odd, how many times does one need to repeat the same thing before someone else actually gets it.

We told the Ukrainians and Americans to slam the borders shut and find the Kremlin's money.

Too easy

[Stan]

And for the yanks by the yanks...

You are preaching to the choir Mark.

23 years of active duty, and only in Sierra.

The Ukraine however is not Sub-Sahara and the jungle rules of our days may not apply, nor, for that matter, the BS that a bunch of dead presidents drummed up at the white house.

We should be handling Putin like an African dictator, but, we can't manage to handle our creations in Africa either.

[JMA]

You are preaching to the choir Mark.

23 years of active duty, and only in Sierra.

The Ukraine however is not Sub-Sahara and the jungle rules of our days may not apply, nor, for that matter, the BS that a bunch of dead presidents drummed up at the white house.

We should be handling Putin like an African dictator, but, we can't manage to handle our creations in Africa either.

This is what is hilarious about the Crimea/Ukraine situation... everybody is saying what should not be done, but none saying what should be done, other than to just let Putin do what he wants. A watershed moment in history.

[JMA]

And to think the current US policy was aimed at maintaining peace:

Is Ukraine about to go nuclear again?

The actions of Russia and Ukraine over the next few weeks have the potential to alter the global nuclear weapons dynamic in a profound and extremely dangerous way.

One probable and immediate consequence of a Ukrainian choice to "go nuclear" would be that Belarus, a Ukrainian neighbor and close Kremlin ally, would also choose to return to its pre-treaty nuclear weapons status through the development of indigenous weapons or, even more likely, invite the placement of Russian nuclear weapons within its borders.

Japan would be well advised ....

[Stan]

And to think the current US policy was aimed at maintaining peace:

Is Ukraine about to go nuclear again?

Japan would be well advised ....

Mark,
To even remotely use the term "treaty" in this part of the world is a joke.

The former east block is but a transit point for fissile materials from Russia.

We are not maintaining much more that the status quo and dearly expensive.

Case in point. If the reporting Tom and I did on Viktor Bout in the early 90s only recently put him away, two decades later, what would we hope to achieve now with Putin?

[wm]

Mark,
To even remotely use the term "treaty" in this part of the world is a joke.

The former east block is but a transit point for fissile materials from Russia.

We are not maintaining much more that the status quo and dearly expensive.

Case in point. If the reporting Tom and I did on Viktor Bout in the early 90s only recently put him away, two decades later, what would we hope to achieve now with Putin?

As a follow-on to Stan's second point, how likely is it that Russia will provide fissile material to the Ukrainians?
You can have all the technological know how you want, but you aren't building a nuke without the right kind of fission or fusion precursor matter.

This pie chart is rather instructive


And as far as known locations with enrichment facilities, Wikipedia gives us this:

The following countries are known to operate enrichment facilities: Argentina, Brazil, China, France, Germany, India, Iran, Japan, the Netherlands, North Korea, Pakistan, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States.[19] Belgium, Iran, Italy, and Spain hold an investment interest in the French Eurodif enrichment plant, with Iran's holding entitling it to 10% of the enriched uranium output. Countries that had enrichment programs in the past include Libya and South Africa, although Libya's facility was never operational.[20] Australia has developed a laser enrichment process known as SILEX, which it intends to pursue through financial investment in a U.S. commercial venture by General Electric.[21] It has also been claimed that Israel has a uranium enrichment program housed at the Negev Nuclear Research Center site near Dimona

and this link identifies know breeder reactor sites.

[davidbfpo]

On Twitter from Roberty Mackey (NYT):

Video obtained by (BBC reporter) @antelava of masked man handing out threatening flyers to Ukrainian Jews outside Donetsk synagogue just broadcast on BBC

Link and you have to scroll down:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-27081271

[Stan]

This is what is hilarious about the Crimea/Ukraine situation... everybody is saying what should not be done, but none saying what should be done, other than to just let Putin do what he wants. A watershed moment in history.

Mark,
Correct me if I'm wrong herein, but other than not seeing what was already pre-planned in Moscow, and, Crimea practically OK with the invasion, what more should we as a collective society have done ?

When McCain was told to send in 50,000 troops and provide a 5 million dollar guarantee immediately he nearly fell over. The sad reality is, 50,000 troops and logistics for a month will more than likely cost the American public 50 million.

Whilst McCain died from laughing, he was right.
Who is going to fund this boondoggle when it seems that half of the Ukraine is getting by with MREs and running at the first sight of a military skirmish.

In Africa it took decades to be fed up.

How long will it take the Ukrainian people to become fed up and revolt. Does not appear that enough of them are fed up.

Regards, Stan

[JMA]

Stan, I missed the background to your reference to McCain. Can you direct me please?

Mark,
Correct me if I'm wrong herein, but other than not seeing what was already pre-planned in Moscow, and, Crimea practically OK with the invasion, what more should we as a collective society have done ?

When McCain was told to send in 50,000 troops and provide a 5 million dollar guarantee immediately he nearly fell over. The sad reality is, 50,000 troops and logistics for a month will more than likely cost the American public 50 million.

Whilst McCain died from laughing, he was right.
Who is going to fund this boondoggle when it seems that half of the Ukraine is getting by with MREs and running at the first sight of a military skirmish.

In Africa it took decades to be fed up.

How long will it take the Ukrainian people to become fed up and revolt. Does not appear that enough of them are fed up.

Regards, Stan

[Stan]

Stan, I missed the background to your reference to McCain. Can you direct me please?

Mark,
Sorry about that.

This one in English and the routine stuff from the American Embassy.

Still trying to find out what Latvia, Lithuania, and Moldova proposed or complained about. Thus far only local language stuff available.

[wm]

This is what is hilarious about the Crimea/Ukraine situation... everybody is saying what should not be done, but none saying what should be done, other than to just let Putin do what he wants. A watershed moment in history.

I am, not quite sure that folks are saying just left Putin do what he wants.

I would include Putin among those dinosaurs I mentioned here. One way to get rid of creatures with such voracious appetites is to take away their food source. Putin's food seems to consist of money and power. The West's economic sanctions directed against individuals in Russia is part of that food source removal process--reducing Putin's access to money; some of his income is also being spoiled by such things as raising Gazprom's rates and sending aid to the Crimea. A well-placed campaign of discrediting the man's public utterances (such as Breedlove's press release quoted by Davidbfpo) is the start of one way of undercutting his public support, AKA power base. Turning back Russian visitors to the Ukraine is another way of pointing out the limitations to his power.

However, dinosaurs take a while to starve and could still cause damage before they succumb. Some other things, like putting a BMD frigate in the Black Sea, are a valuable tool to limit the collateral damage the dinosaur can cause as it thrashes around in its death throes.

[JMA]

I am, not quite sure that folks are saying just left Putin do what he wants.

Then you need to have a second look at what is and was happening.