Ukraine (closed; covers till August 2014)

[davidbfpo]

Written by three former US Ambassadors to the Ukraine:

First, the United States and European Union should greatly expand the list of individual Russians—inside and outside of government—targeted for visa and financial sanctions. Sanctions should apply to family members as well.


Second, the West should sanction key parts of the Russian economy, beginning with its financial sector. It should target at least several Russian financial institutions. The European Union, particularly Britain, must join in, with the aim of halting international credit to Russian entities. That would further stress the slowing Russian economy.


Third, the United States and European Union should block their energy companies from new investments to develop oil and gas fields in Russia. With Moscow dependent on oil and gas sales for seventy percent of its export earnings, such a measure would send shudders through the Russian energy sector.

Link:http://nationalinterest.org/commenta...want-war-10327

[TheCurmudgeon]

A little late, but if you can still get on this is pretty interesting:

http://csis.org/event/engage-or-cont...lly-considered

[OUTLAW 09]

Who would have thought that countries can even suffer from PTSD.

Interesting link and article:

http://www.newrepublic.com/article/1...tress-disorder

[Stan]

Outlaw,

Stan---notice how though Germany has gotten extremely quiet as they were always for diplomacy as they are basically and will always be anti war anything.

They are not happy with Obama's moves and there are some quiet questions emerging in the German newspapers questioning NATO's abilities.

The Germans have never done anything without calculating the end game and they have never jumped when the USG did. Not their style. But, they are entirely dependent on gas from Russia and we can't replace that. In their shoes, I would remain quiet too. Anti war ? How about freezing to death and not able to cook. Glad I dumped that BS Russian pipe in my apartment, bought a grill and installed an electric oven

Also goes for the concept of political warfare---not a single senior leader/thinker from DoD has ventured into this realm in the last weeks---they are far more interested in a "soft landing" for 3000 officers due to be cut in the next month and who have to be out then 60 days later than say figuring what Putin is up to.

Who said we an fight a two front war did not calculate the RIFing of officers in the middle of an issue.

We are supposed to reduce the Army to 420K and most are O3 and O4. So, you are about to be RIFed and you continue to worry about the Ukraine

Dude, it's a budget year with continuing resolutions out the ying yang.

You are about to dump your first ten years in the Army and you are wondering what Vova thinks

[Stan]

Here comes the not so subtle threat to both the Ukraine and NATO/US taken from Interfax today---interesting to see where Obama takes this while he is in Japan.

Thought Russia said those troops were not near the border?

16:48 RUSSIAN BATTALION TACTICAL COMBINED-ARMS GROUPS FROM SOUTHERN, WESTERN MILITARY DISTRICTS START DRILLS IN RESPONSE TO SITUATION IN SOUTHEAST UKRAINE - SHOIGU



16:48 SHOIGU: IN FRAMEWORK OF DRILLS AVIATION TO CARRY OUT FLIGHTS TO EXERCISE ACTIONS NEAR STATE BORDER

You know this already, but they overfly our borders every day with some vintage pile of sierra that barely breaks 350 kph.

Seems a mild response to a bunch of F-16s and friends flying in from all over creation

[Stan]

Beard thing is solved here

http://time.com/74405/exclusive-pro-...stern-ukraine/

Stan, it seems that it is easier to say than to be done in situation, where Kiev has lost monopoly of violence.

Kaur,
He looks like he means business even if he has an inferior weapon.

We made our EOD techs grow facial hair in the CAR to blend in.

Got to get with the local lingo if one wants to survive.

[OUTLAW 09]

You know this already, but they overfly our borders every day with some vintage pile of sierra that barely breaks 350 kph.

Seems a mild response to a bunch of F-16s and friends flying in from all over creation

Stan---it is all about the messaging just as is the BN from the 173rd.

[OUTLAW 09]

Kaur,
He looks like he means business even if he has an inferior weapon.

We made our EOD techs grow facial hair in the CAR to blend in.

Got to get with the local lingo if one wants to survive.

kaur---the article has some minor holes---how does a "so called" criminal on the run and evidently in the Crimea for a number of weeks not get arrested by the local police when they fell under Russian control especially when the Ministry of Interior is running the place or better normally Russians needed a passport to cross into the Ukraine which the Crimea was Ukrainian and normally when on the run as a criminal in Russia one normally does not have a passport as that requires checking in with the local police/Ministry of the Interior or if he had one then it would have been revoked---unless he was paying bribes to keep it.

Then this paragraph stands out:

As TIME reported last month, thousands of state-sponsored Russian Cossacks were then streaming into Crimea to aid the Russian troops with that invasion. For most of March, Mozhaev says, he was there along with some of the men from his Cossack battalion, the Wolves’ Hundred, helping in the siege of a Ukrainian military base near the city of Bakhchysarai and guarding a local TV tower.

NOTE: Was the Cossack BN paramilitary, a loose conglomeration of individuals or under Russian management?

In late March, after Russia annexed the Crimean Peninsula, “we were sitting around down there and wondering what to do next,” he says. “So we decided to go conquer some more historically Russian lands.” Eventually he wound up in Slavyansk, where Ponomaryov was glad to welcome him into his separatist militia.

Sitting around takes money and food so who was supporting the BN?

kaur---also go to the inforesist.org link and check their listing ---you will see another individual the SBU names standing next to your bearded guy--then check the individuals background from 2013 to 2014.

This was written in the article and it comes from the SBU side concerning Cossacks.

From the identified militants, a few notes can be made from the following gunmen who appear to be connected to the raids in Sloviansk and Kramatorsk . For one, not all are from Russia. While some may be local radicals, others appear to come from Belorechensk in Russia, or have connections to related neo-Cossack groups. This does not necessarily exonerate Russian state involvement, however. While it’s been known that military veterans and Russian ‘tourists’ have been actively involved for some time, the presence of Registered Cossacks of the Russian Federation connects Russia officially to the ongoing crisis. Registered Cossack organizations enjoy financial and organizational support from the authorities, including monthly salary as police auxiliaries. This, of course, isn’t the first controversial deployment of Cossack forces, who made a name for themselves on the world stage enforcing the law in Sochi.

[Stan]

Not unexpectedly the NATO AWACS fleet has been deployed, it works under the control of SACEUR. With at least one plane based in Rumania. As reported by NYT:http://www.nytimes.com/2014/04/24/wo...b-russia.html?

A fleet ? I read that "From a fleet" of 17 aircraft, NATO operates two flights per day, one over Romania and the other over Poland.

I note this article refers to last week's "buzzing" of a US destroyer in the Black Sea, by a Russian aircraft:

Really? I don't recall any mention of that at the time. One trusts that the military-to-military 'hotline' was used to prevent misunderstanding.

David,
it happens here and in Scandinavia with such frequency that it has become boring even for the newspapers. C'mon, these stone age flying bathtubs such as seen in Georgia with fuses missing from the bombs WTF ? Maybe Putin should invest in training ground crews

Part of the headline comes from Mr. Pabriks, the former Latvian defense minister, when he refers to five minesweepers coming to the Baltic ( two from Norway and one each from the Netherlands, Belgium and Estonia) as:

We do this every year and that's a good thing when one considers how much sierra the Germans and Russians left behind, anchored to the Baltic Sea.

Ironically years ago the presence of five of six minesweepers barely drew the attention of the press... until now. What was once a port visit (excuse for port call) has now become such a (ahem) statement. How's that ?

Do the Russians plan on putting more of their sierra into the Baltic Sea than is already stagnant and very much still there?

Why would I want minesweepers here and not in the Black Sea ?

[Stan]

Outlaw,

I'm a smiggin cynical and about to turn 60. What message are you sending to an egotistical Russian leader suffering from mid-life crisis with a million idiots with firearms a stone's throw from your border ?

It might be a battalion, but in stark comparison, like my equally cynical Estonian and Ukrainian friends think, it's hardly worth laughing over.

So, the message is for whom and what exactly does that person end up getting out of it if all the countries here think it's BS ?

Stan---it is all about the messaging just as is the BN from the 173rd.

[OUTLAW 09]

Nice to see somebody else picking up Gaidars comments in his great book and expending on them.

Personally I would not be worried too much about NG demand for various reasons already outlined in this thread long ago. Btw I also gave the Austrian Verbund a closer look after it's long fall, and it is quite stunning how uncompetitive gas is also in the electricity sector in Austria. In the long run I doubt that the Russians will get as much for their stuff as today.

Firn---noticed today that Putin in a press released admitted the sanctions were causing damages ie increased lending costs, or no loans or financing being available due to bank questions caused by the sanctions.

[OUTLAW 09]

Written by three former US Ambassadors to the Ukraine:


Link:http://nationalinterest.org/commenta...want-war-10327

David---the economic leverage is actually starting to bite in increased bank rates, no lending or loans being available from foreign banks due to the sanctions ---even Putin admitted today that the sanctions were causing some damage to the economy.

[OUTLAW 09]

You know this already, but they overfly our borders every day with some vintage pile of sierra that barely breaks 350 kph.

Seems a mild response to a bunch of F-16s and friends flying in from all over creation

Stan---what initially puzzled me was the term Combined Arms Group which in the scenarios we ran with them ---Russian BNs are tied into a Bde strength unit or Groups in Russian speak.

The initial release had the flavor of only BNs maneuvering.

This Interfax release confirms the missing piece the movements are at least Bde levels which takes on a different flavor.

20:15 Russian Army to set up aviation brigades - Shoigu

Go back and check the open source photos of their positions and you will see at least 2-3 aviation brigades ie attack, support and transport.

[kaur]

Outlaw.

Growing state support has fed the Cossacks’ newfound importance. Those who belong to one of Russia’s 11 federally registered Cossack organizations — including the Central Cossack Army, to which Zaplatin’s group is subordinated — are officially recognized as volunteer civil servants, whose status and activities are regulated to some degree by a federal law signed in 2005.

Last fall, Putin — who’s reportedly an honorary Cossack colonel — signed a strategy for the development of Russian Cossacks until 2020. It’s aimed at setting out economic and logistic terms for even closer cooperation between Cossacks and the government.

In exchange, the Cossacks provide legions of ready-made public service professionals with years of experience. True to the Cossack tradition, many of those who belong to a registered society in Russia have served — or currently serve — in the armed forces or in one of the so-called “security structures,” such as the Interior Ministry.

Nenarokov, who also works as a combat instructor at the Federal Security Service’s FSB Border Guard Academy, estimates that about 40 percent of the military’s officer corps is made up of Cossacks.

“The role of the Cossacks in the near future will be that of a national guard, like the Italian Carabinieri,” he says. “It’ll be more like a national militia, rather than a police force per se.”

http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/n...ossacks-return

[Stan]

Gents,
This Telegraph article seems to have a different spin on your intel.

Ever served a tour in Africa ? Until the dictator dies, nobody wins. When he does finally expire, you still don't win and WE will pay for all this BS via humanitarian aid til the cows come home... Paradoxically.

I love the conversations and predictions. Are they real indicators when dealing with someone who is not affected and could care less ?

Seriously

[OUTLAW 09]

Outlaw,

I'm a smiggin cynical and about to turn 60. What message are you sending to an egotistical Russian leader suffering from mid-life crisis with a million idiots with firearms a stone's throw from your border ?

It might be a battalion, but in stark comparison, like my equally cynical Estonian and Ukrainian friends think, it's hardly worth laughing over.

So, the message is for whom and what exactly does that person end up getting out of it if all the countries here think it's BS ?

Stan---use to be called the trip wire effect.

[Stan]

Jeez already !

I'd gladly read your links, but you put out not one instance of effort and lead me into some blind adventure.

Send me a link that works, or, I will no longer respond.

10th ... no wonder

20:15 Russian Army to set up aviation brigades - Shoigu

Go back and check the open source photos of their positions and you will see at least 2-3 aviation brigades ie attack, support and transport.

[OUTLAW 09]

Jeez already !

I'd gladly read your links, but you put out not one instance of effort and lead me into some blind adventure.

Send me a link that works, or, I will no longer respond.

10th ... no wonder

Stan---Interfax runs in a rolling principle as the releases go out so there is no specific link outside of a general one---will go back and dig out the open source briefing from breedlove.

http://www.interfax.com/news.asp

[OUTLAW 09]

Outlaw.

Growing state support has fed the Cossacks’ newfound importance. Those who belong to one of Russia’s 11 federally registered Cossack organizations — including the Central Cossack Army, to which Zaplatin’s group is subordinated — are officially recognized as volunteer civil servants, whose status and activities are regulated to some degree by a federal law signed in 2005.

Last fall, Putin — who’s reportedly an honorary Cossack colonel — signed a strategy for the development of Russian Cossacks until 2020. It’s aimed at setting out economic and logistic terms for even closer cooperation between Cossacks and the government.

In exchange, the Cossacks provide legions of ready-made public service professionals with years of experience. True to the Cossack tradition, many of those who belong to a registered society in Russia have served — or currently serve — in the armed forces or in one of the so-called “security structures,” such as the Interior Ministry.

Nenarokov, who also works as a combat instructor at the Federal Security Service’s FSB Border Guard Academy, estimates that about 40 percent of the military’s officer corps is made up of Cossacks.

“The role of the Cossacks in the near future will be that of a national guard, like the Italian Carabinieri,” he says. “It’ll be more like a national militia, rather than a police force per se.”

http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/n...ossacks-return

kaur---you just called the Time reporting into question---and this bearded Cossack was what "on the run as a common criminal"---what a poor cover story for being in the Crimea just in "time" to welcome Russian troops- and then "just sitting around" he decides to cross into the Ukraine with no Russian passport since he was on the run?

He had a passport and was not on the run---but still one must give him credit for even having a cover story for the Time reporter---that is the problem these days not many reporters even understand the background of the events they are reporting on and simply take for granted everything they see or hear as being gospel.

You found a really interesting article based on this paragraph referencing the Orthodox Church relationship to the Cossacks.

I have maintained here part of the problem in understanding Russia is that we must understand the four pillars that constitute their decision makers in a foreign policy strategy 1) security services, 2) military, 3) oligarchs and 4) Russian mafia/gangs and layered over all of them the Orthodox Church driving a form of religious nationalism or better formulated and what Putin is--- an ethnic nationalist.

“They don’t understand that we will fight to the end,” he says. “We don’t stop half-way.”

Not the words one would expect from a Russian Orthodox priest. But then, Nenarokov isn’t a typical clergyman.

A slight, whiskered man of middle age, Nenarokov also serves as a chaplain in the Moscow City Cossack Society, where he runs seminars on hand-to-hand combat training, one of the many activities aimed at helping revive the culture of Cossacks — the centuries-old defenders of Russia’s frontiers and, historically, the tsar’s most dedicated and seasoned enforcers of Orthodoxy, autocracy, and empire.

[Stan]

Stan---use to be called the trip wire effect.

My question, your response above which few will ever get, is the same...

Outlaw,

So, the message is for whom and what exactly does that person end up getting out of it if all the countries here think it's BS ?

So, RB, explain the trip wire effect as it relates to this thread.... Please