Couple of observations from the TAOR:
1. Chavez and Colombia - he wouldn't dare and there is no way to get a foothold. The Colombians will go the other way just because he is Venezuelan. Colombia has made tremendous progress in the last 4 years - unfortunately, the reporting of it is being lost in the bigger global picture. The ROI is paying huge dividends, but there is an election on the horizon and all that could change with one stuffing of the ballot box. The next step in Colombia is to either re-elect Uribe or elect someone just like him, there are several candidates. I never thought I would say it, but Colombia is on the fast track to becoming the most stable democracy in the region.
2. Brazil will never fall into a Chavez or Ortega-led fold. Brazil isn't really a Latin country and they are looking for a seat at the Big Table, not regional coalitions.
3. Personally, I see Mexico in the same boat as Brazil. What happens in the US has a far larger impact on Mexico than anything in Central or South America.
4. South America does not follow Central America or the Carribean's lead. Case in point - Che's foco fiasco.

Much more concerning to me is Chavez' new love for ME shady characters and Venezuela's membership in OPEC. If Chavez gets desperate enough, I doubt he will hesitate to swing even further that way for help. And we've all seen what happens when you let the AQ virus in.

The tri-border area is also concerning, mostly due to a complete lack of any real state presence.

If Ortega does re-gain control, I think he will be mostly a nuisance, much like Chavez. And like Chavez, the risk of him looking to the ME for support could become real.

I would hope that even idiots like Ortega and Chavez could see what will happen to them if it comes to pass.