Ukraine (closed; covers till August 2014)

[Firn]

Pretty early in this thread we discussed the huge problems Russia would face supplying the occupied Crimea, be it water, gas, oil, electricity and food. The headline Crimean Citizens to Get Russian Gas sounds promising, but for now the reality is:

Crimea is also facing a shortage of gasoline and diesel supplies resulting from its annexation, as the majority of its supplies were delivered overland from Ukraine. Russia has not yet been able to resolve the supply issue with the small oil terminal in the port city of Kerch, on the eastern side of the peninsula.

Pretty much what we said, capacity just doesn't grow magically and severing natural economic ties comes at high costs. BTW if Ukraine did indeed cut the water supply from the NCC at the entry it will take some weeks, I think, to be felt in Crimea. IIRC there is also another channel watering southwest Ukraine towards Odessa, possibly they might be able to divert also there.

The highly likely collapse in tourism, perhaps the most important source of private revenue has promted some Russian plans. If the pension and public wages will get the promised big rise the Crimean economy will be dominated by the state.

According to data from the Russian tourism watchdog, Rostourism, nearly 6 million tourists visited Crimea last year, of which 65 percent were Ukrainians and 25 percent, Russians. The 2014 season will be different, warned Irina Schegolkova, a spokesperson for Rostourism.

"This year, the Crimean government plans to welcome about 3 million people, the majority of them Russians," she said, adding that in previous years most Russians either drove to Crimea in their cars or traveled by rail. For Russians, that means a detour through potentially hostile territory, which most will be unwilling to risk, she added: "The only alternatives are developing direct flights to Crimea or ferry connections."

So after talking about a moderate reduction in tourism demand a month or so ago the have at least cut them to a more propable number, only 50%. Still too high in my books, but we will see.