David,

Few points on Nigeria.

1. Important to understand Nigeria's politics & history to make sense of the dysfunction of the Nigerian state.

2. Nigeria has a long history of military rule, politicians don't want a well-equipped military - they plot coups.

3. When Obasanjo became president, he removed all "military officers who occupied political positions" - in addition he didn't fund the military well enough for 8 years.

4. Nigerian politicians prefer to keep the military weak, than risk overthrow - Shagari spent heavily on the military, he was overthrown.

5. The military has a large number of Northerners (officers & other ranks). Southern politicians are very weary of a powerful military - and by extension, a more powerful North. The military has been the major leverage the North has over the South.

6. All this led to the appalling state of the Nigerian Military.

7. Will this Chibok issue affect President Jonathan's chances of re-election? Depends on who he's contesting against. Regional tensions are rising, very different narratives on "who is benefiting from Boko Haram". Southerners insist "Northern politicians are benefiting". Northerners insist "Jonathan is benefiting from Boko Haram".

8. Nigeria is a very divided nation - & we might get to a 2007/08 style crisis (like in Kenya). The state is on the verge of failure, with the North fearful that loss of the oil-rich South will make them as poor as Mali.

9. Boko Haram might just succeed in destroying Nigeria, there is too much history of inter-ethnic/religious crisis & bloodshed for a united, nationalistic movement to arise to 'salvage Nigeria'.

10. I wish these girls be found & found alive & returned to their parents.