Stan,

I wouldn't say the Russians have won already. They won the opening round with the seizure of Crimea (who's talking about that anymore?) but we've also seen their limits. When the people of Donetsk held their own referendum similar to Crimea's about joining Russia, Moscow said no thanks (this also calls into question the theory that Russian intelligence services have been directing the opposition from day one). I don't think they have as nearly as much control as they would like, evidenced by the collapse of the Russian supported cease-fire because of continued insurgent provocations. That said, Russia is still in a stronger position than the US (and certainly Ukraine), and now it's just a waiting game. I think there's a couple of outcomes:

- Kiev eliminates insurgent threat. What does this do for Russian perception of its international standing and obligations to Russian speaking peoples?

- Kiev forms an actual unity government that's inclusive of political players from the Russian community.

- Washington and Moscow agree to partition in Ukraine.

- Kiev offensive loses steam and Ukraine becomes de-facto partitioned, and that's eventually institutionalized through cease-fires, self-governance, etc.