I don't see identity politics as population centric insurgency or COIN. It is irregular warfare so it almost goes without saying the combatants will have an identity to rally around. Street gangs also have an identity, as do prison gangs etc., so. Identity is a factor but the decisive element is warfare. Being able to mobilize your base is important whether you're a state or irregular actor, but then you have to employ it, which brings us back to warfare.

It all matters so I'm not discounting your points, but I don't agree they have run out of steam yet, and I definitely don't agree they don't need weapons to defeat their adversaries. The army didn't collapse because the people rose up, there was much more to it than this. Saddam demonstrated tanks and armies are very effective at suppressing popular uprisings. Maliki lost control of his military.