http://docs.house.gov/meetings/FA/FA...T-20130718.pdf

The Future of Anti-Western Jihadism

I have been doing academic research on al-Qaida since before 9/11, and never has the future of the jihadi movement seemed more unpredictable to my eyes than now. Still, for this testimony I have decided to look ahead and speculate about the long-term future of al-Qaida.
First, it is my assessment that we are past the peak of organized jihadi terrorism in the West. Al-Qaida Core is weak and most affiliates are not systematically targeting the US homeland.
My second and more pessimistic point is that the jihadi movement writ large is thriving and will be with us for another decade at least.
My third point, which is more of a guess, is that I expect a “second wave” of serious plots in the West some 4-6 years down the line.