Given the fact you claim the Russian military are advanced and capable, I would have a real problem with this article. Some SF dude infiltrated and took his real documents with himOriginally Posted by OUTLAW 09
I'm certain you have a good explanation for this and, I, am dying to hear it.
If you want to blend in, take the bus
Dayuhan
Some thoughts.Nobody here knows what Putin "really wants". We only know what he does: any effort to deduce motivation or desire is speculative.
The three strategic objectives he has pursued in Ukraine since the February revolution overthrew his Ukrainian satrap, Viktor Yanukovich, are not likely to change. First, to punish, humiliate, destabilize, if possible, dismember and, ultimately, derail a Europe-bound Ukraine. Second, to prevent the West from imposing meaningful sanctions. And finally, to continue to solidify his domestic political base by rallying around the flag.http://www.aei.org/article/foreign-a...cal-pause/#mblThus, Putin is looking at three tactical options. The first, undoubtedly preferred, would be to reverse the battle by pouring “volunteers,” guns, ammo and military hardware across the border, all the while denying Russia’s involvement and calling for “peace” and “direct negotiations” between the thugs and the legitimate government of Ukraine, as well as a unilateral cease-fire by Kiev, which must stop “killing the innocent civilians.”
Another Putin choice is to call for an “international peace conference” where, in exchange for a cessation of hostilities, “guaranteed” by Russia, Germany, France and the U.S., Kiev would be forced to accept “federalization” of Ukraine. The country’s east-south would become essentially a Russian protectorate, tied to Moscow economically, politically, ideologically and culturally, and exercising, on the Kremlin’s command, a veto power over Ukraine’s further moves to the West.
The third option could be called a “Libya version.” Moscow could use Western “interference” in Libya as a “precedent” to move regular troops and aircraft into Ukraine and to fully occupy the region, declaring that Ukraine is now in the “throes of a fratricidal civil war.”
News from Donetsk. Vice premier of DNR in security question is now former head of Transnistria KGB (1992-2012). In 2012 he left to Russia.
http://translate.google.be/translate...24%26bih%3D425
Advanced and capable does not preclude stupidity---evidently the Russian SF does not believe in going in clean ---hey this is the old concept in Eastern Europe anyway---when one crosses an official border you might never know if you need your passport to cross back over---right--he was just being a little to pro-active and it got him killed.Given the fact you claim the Russian military are advanced and capable, I would have a real problem with this article. Some SF dude infiltrated and took his real documents with him
I'm certain you have a good explanation for this and, I, am dying to hear it.
Hmmm, other than a spare mag of ammo, an exfil generally does not include dog tags and passport.
Explain this “old Eastern European Concept” as if it was still in play. I think today’s Russians are not the generation you speak of.
If you want to blend in, take the bus
More abductions, torture seen in separatist-held eastern Ukraine is an article based on multiple sources which shouldn't surprise nobody which informed himself from time to time.
Human right abuses get committed in practially every conflict and in this case it is pretty selfevident why payed thugs organized in an ad-hoc fashion with criminal interests intertwined with a political campaign mostly based on terrorism and hatred are responsible for most crimes and the most vicious at that.While definitive statistics on abductions are hard to come by, the Ukrainian Interior Ministry has reported some 500 cases since the onslaught of the conflict in April. The Amnesty report says that the UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission for Ukraine recorded 222 abduction cases in that time.
Human rights observers say the kidnappings by the rebels are meant to intimidate the local population. But hostages are also being kept and used as human shields, locked away in rooms of rebel-occupied buildings to keep Ukrainian forces from striking them by air and bombarding them with heavy artillery, observers say. Others are held for ransom.
On June 24, the UN Assistant Secretary-General for Human Rights Ivan Simonovic warned that the situation in eastern Ukraine is “rapidly deteriorating.” Three weeks on, Amnesty International says the situation is only worsening.
"The bulk of the abductions are being perpetrated by armed separatists, with the victims often subjected to stomach-turning beatings and torture," Amnesty's Deputy Europe and Central Asia Director Denis Krivosheev said, adding that there is also "evidence of a smaller number of abuses by pro-Kyiv forces."
Helluva job Putin, at making Russia an increasingly despised enemy in Ukraine instead of a 'slavic brother' and pushing your neighbours into the arms of the EU and US. The most cynical CIA plot could not have done a better job at that, congratulations.
Last edited by Firn; 07-11-2014 at 07:42 PM.
... "We need officers capable of following systematically the path of logical argument to its conclusion, with disciplined intellect, strong in character and nerve to execute what the intellect dictates"
General Ludwig Beck (1880-1944);
Speech at the Kriegsakademie, 1935
[QUOTE=Firn;158462]During the "Gas wars" Russian public opinion was on the Ukrainian side - now it is not, so yes, Putin did a good job at consolidating support for all his actions. Besides, Ukraine drifts Westward for all 20 years of independence, bloody mess in the East just make this move faster.Helluva job Putin, at making Russia an increasingly despised enemy in Ukraine instead of a 'slavic brother' and pushing your neighbours into the arms of the EU and US. The most cynical CIA plot could not have done a better job at that, congratulations.
Last edited by mirhond; 07-12-2014 at 10:17 AM.
Haeresis est maxima opera maleficarum non credere.
The NG problem, i.e. the theft of NG by Ukraine or better Ukranian and Russian oligarchs is solved around 2018, when enough additional pipeline capacity, that does not touch Ukraine and Poland, is available for Russia.
Therefore, the support of the Russians in respect to the gas war is not relevant argument, has no substance.
The shift of power from Ukraine to Russia would have happened anyway around 2018. The Ukrainian business model was expected to die.
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/article..._putin_donetskAll Is Not Well in Novorossiya
From Moscow to Donetsk, Russia's resurgent revanchists are turning against each other. Are Ukraine's pro-Russian firebrands too hot for Russia?
Ukraine Determined to Avoid the “Frozen-Conflict” Paradigm
http://www.jamestown.org/single/?tx_...b#.U8ECLmIaySM
Russia’s Actions in Ukraine: Parallels with Other “Hot Spots” of the Former Soviet Union
http://www.jamestown.org/single/?tx_...b#.U8ECeGIaySM
Firstly, It's still 2014, as far as I know, secondly, neglecting popular support is not a relevant course of action for polititian like Putin.
Haeresis est maxima opera maleficarum non credere.
Stan---what is and has not died is the eastern European is the belief that one must have a passport in order to cross borders or if need be prove that one is a Russian citizen thus it is not so strange that Russian irregular fighters carry passports---if in fact he was Russian SF which I do not believe he was---he definitely would have gone in clean but then the Ukrainian SBU has picked up GRU types carrying Russian passports.
So they are simply in the hectic of trying to get more irregular fighters into the Ukraine just sloppy.
A really deeply telling article if correct as it is the first Russian admission that Russia is supplying new advanced weapons in large numbers into the Donestk region sine 3 Jul.
The question is why? Or is Putin all in now for an open UW fight?
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/article..._putin_donetsk
@JMA
Ukraine starting drifting away was IMHO the loss for Russia. It indicates that Russia was unable to rule in her backyard by means of more or less soft power. This basic problem is not solved! Quite contrary.
An occupation of a region that was Russian and only was attached to Ukraine in 1954 due to administrative reasons, is therefore not that impressive, they have now less and pay more.
Re perceived weakness of US and Germany: To see that further Russian occupations are stalled or delayed by "weak" western response is interesting and may only indicate that your understanding of weakness in fawlty: Is it really weak when economic warm-up exercises of the blue team lead to problems for the red team? Here Putin may have already come to different conclusions than you. :-)
Obviously, we have simply different understanding of good strategy. Russian military operations, while elegant to a certain extend, do not solve the basic problems Russia has, but actually increase them, that is in my book not a win and I can live with such "lessons taught".
Personally I am quite happy with a low profile strategy that gives both sides enough time to assess the situation and adjust their future actions, like the rounds in a game of poker, each player has the opportunity to quit with an acceptable loss of face. That is much better than stupid knee-jerk operations which are only PR stunts and may lead to unintended consequences.
Last edited by Ulenspiegel; 07-13-2014 at 09:48 AM.
Understandable move to grab Crimea now when the US is weak and Germany won't do anything rather than wait. Now was the time. Putin got it right.
Yes, Ukraine for historical reasons is not a natural ally of Russia. Putin I suppose recognised this and took care of the Crimea issue.It indicates that Russia was unable to rule in her backyard by means of more or less soft power. This basic problem is not solved! Quite contrary.
Yes, if I were looking for an excuse for my country's gutlessness I would make that argument as well.An occupation of a region that was Russian and only was attached to Ukraine in 1954 due to administrative reasons, is therefore not that impressive, they have now less and pay more.
"Weak"? Well maybe in the case of Germany it was a case of not being prepared to pay the cost of punishing Russia.Re perceived weakness of US and Germany: To see that further Russian occupations are stalled or delayed by "weak" western response is interesting and may only indicate that your understanding of weakness in fawlty: Is it really weak when economic warm-up exercises of the blue team lead to problems for the red team? Here Putin may have already come to different conclusions than you. :-)
So we turn to Churchill to understand the German position:
But then again I can't read Putin's mind as you seem to believe you can. So tell me what he is thinking now and what made him change.An appeaser is one who feeds a crocodile, hoping it will eat him last. -
Winston Churchill
There are different levels of strategy, some provide short term results but long term catastrophic failure - like germany in WW1 and WW2 - and other result in long term gains not initially obvious. Take your pick.Obviously, we have simply different understanding of good strategy. Russian military operations, while elegant to a certain extend, do not solve the basic problems Russia has, but actually increase them, that is in my book not a win and I can live with such "lessons taught".
As a German I assume you have learned from the errors of your past... but don't lecture me, lecture Putin.Personally I am quite happy with a low profile strategy that gives both sides enough time to assess the situation and adjust their future actions, like the rounds in a game of poker, each player has the opportunity to quit with an acceptable loss of face. That is much better than stupid knee-jerk operations which are only PR stunts and may lead to unintended consequences.
Last edited by JMA; 07-13-2014 at 12:26 PM.
Ulenspiegel---a simple basic question that I do not see often answered concerning the Crimea and the current Russian view towards the Crimea.
Correct me if I am wrong but who in fact "gave" the Crimea "away" and was it not done under a "communist" leader in a "communist legal fashion" in the beginning of say 1954 which if I recall the Soviet Union was still wading through "Stalinism" was it not?
So are we saying that a "communist" country led by not so softie "Communist Party fine tuned in the Stalin days " using "communist" legal terms somehow got it "wrong"?
So now it is up to the Ukraine and the West to do what "take a time out and stand in the corner" and allow another former "communist ie KGB COL" a chance for a "redo" of history say "60" years later?
Does that makes sense to you?
I have not noticed a single German political leader nor a single German newspaper actually challenge the above statement---meaning-- are we the West to give Russia a chance to redo history all because someone in the former Soviet Union who was a "valid leader" "made a stupid 1954 mistake" in the "eyes" of the current 2014 Russian leader?
Is that not what the current Putin argument really is all about if one really reads his statements---a chance to correct in his eyes "a stupid Communist mistake from 1954". So are you in fact stating that the "stupid West who said nothing in 1954" should in fact stand to the side and allow another "stupid mistake in 2014 to be made again"?
Heck using that argument Germany could stand up in 2014 and say "excuse me because that stupid Hitler made a mistake in 1939 we want the western portion of Poland back and the western portion of the Czech Republic back because we did not have a chance to correct that stupid Hitler
back in 1939"---so now we Germany also want our own "redo" of history because we Germany did not have a chance to call Hitler stupid back then and stop him.
You do realize that is exactly what Putin is saying about the Crimea and you do realize the West is allowing a complete "redo" of history just because a single person feels his nose is disjointed by a former Communist leader who he never knew because he was not born in those times although he himself was a Communist so one might think he would have empathy for that historical time period of the Soviet Communist Party?
But again I have never heard and or seen written anywhere that Putin ever revoked his Communist Party membership and the Party still survives so maybe he is a "hidden member still"---or has anyone writing here seen such a revocation notice?
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 07-13-2014 at 04:01 PM.
Russian expert mirhond---noticed you failed to respond to this article which in fact states that yes Russia is providing advanced weapons to the "Russian freedom fighters" in the Donetsk.
I thought as a Russian expert you had often stated the Russian "freedom fighters" were getting the weapons from corrupt Ukrainian SGTs---that was what you did say ---right mirhond---seems you forgot what you had previously stated about 1000 entries ago---it is hard to get up with ones own comments is it not mirhond?
so if you read the article it appears that;
1. weapons are getting to Russian freedom fighters through corrupt Russian "civilians" but is that a hidden term for the Russian military?---but wait they are not on the border nor "selling weapons" --right mirhond?
2. that the Russian left hand does not know what the Russian right hand is doing
3. or simply Putin is lying to the world
so Russian expert mirhond which of the three items is it or maybe it is all three--so Russian expert mirhond pick one if you can which I know you will not respond to because the article clearly shows Putin is either lying or not in control of the Russian government.
And I know comrade would not admit to that would you?
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 07-13-2014 at 03:29 PM.
Great Read.
http://online.wsj.com/articles/russi...tsk-1405296159
Russian's 'Imperial Dream' Faces Last Stand in Donetsk
Muscovite Heading Separatist Movement in Ukraine Seeks Return of Empire
....
The prominence of Mr. Borodai and other Russian citizens at the helm of the insurgency makes any negotiated peace with Kiev harder to attain and poses an image problem for Moscow, which has argued that separatism in east Ukraine is a grass-roots movement.
"I have no idea what this person from Moscow is doing here," said a local separatist official, who, like several other senior homegrown activists, found himself sidelined with Mr. Borodai's arrival. "It was a raider's takeover."
Andrei Purgin, a Donetsk man who has been agitating for separatism for more than a decade and now serves as a deputy to Mr. Borodai, says "revolutionaries don't necessarily make good administrators, so we had to rely on specialists from outside, on parachutists so to speak."
...
ok comrade Russian expert mirhond---can you explain just why actual Russian citizens who are not Ukrainian citizens are doing in Donetsk?
As a Russian expert mirhond you never seem to answer any direct questions concerning Russian owned weapons ie T64 tanks and Russian BM 21s being also in the Donetsk---after you attempted to "convince" us they came from Ukrainian corrupt SGTs.
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