Ukraine (closed; covers till August 2014)

[JMA]

We'll see soon enough, but surely you notice that all the talk about how Putin is bound to seize all of eastern Ukraine and link up with Transnistria has completely evaporated.

Yes Putin had the US, Germany and the EU in a state of panic over what they thought Putin's next move would be.

His first step was Crimea, the second was the threat to what you mention.

No question he has won outright on Crimea. (His step one)

He is still sitting with Donetsk so maybe only a half step back... Which is understandable given US weakness and German gutlessness.

I guess he is judging his moment to repeat the two steps forward.

[Ulenspiegel]

The annexation of Crimea for one. This is now part of Russia and not part of a neighbouring state which was increasingly difficult to dominate.

They (re)occupied a region, that is supplied by Ukraine, with an economy much weaker than their own in order to secure a maritime base. This menas in my book they will have to pay.

Without occupation of eastern Ukraine Russia faces the interesting situation that parts of "her" industry are now located in a country that was turned from neutral/friendly to hostile by Russian operations. Great. BTW there are not only some production facilities for military hardware but also for oil/gas production and distribution in Ukraine. Of course they can rebuild this industry in Mother Russia, however, that will cost.

Occupation of eastern parts of Ukraine, again a region with weaker economy, may solve the industrial problem, but requires even more investments than the Krim.

Western Ukraine, a neutral or friendly buffer, is lost and a country with around ~30 million citizen (around 1/4 of the Russian population) will now spend recources to defend against Russian operations in future.

[OUTLAW 09]

Newly appointed Ukrainian Minister of Defence recently promised a Triumph in Sevastopol. I believe Putin can't wait for such a move to righteously crush invaders.

mirhond---since you claim to be a Russian expert------you do realize that all the current sanctions in place against he Russian economy and elite Russians have cause massive damage to your economy---right mirhond?

Read the fine print they remain in place until the Crimea is returned which means sometime in 2015/2016 the Russian economy will be destroyed as it cannot continue for that long under the sanctions as it is now struggling even with the limited sanctions in place.

Not all the kind words you have for Putin nor his own "kind" words will remove the sanctions until the Crimea is returned.

Next it appears the Ukraine will the legal case against Russian for the annexation of the Crimea which will then "allow" the Ukraine to literally seize ships, plane, goods, bank accounts anywhere in the world to repay the damages caused by the Russian annexation---which is in the billions of dollars.

Oh and by the way the Crimea economy is tanking and the cost of food is now 78% higher under Russia than under the Ukraine---wonder why?

So who is crushing who---mirhond?

[OUTLAW 09]

Given the fact you claim the Russian military are advanced and capable, I would have a real problem with this article. Some SF dude infiltrated and took his real documents with him

I'm certain you have a good explanation for this and, I, am dying to hear it.

Advanced and capable does not preclude stupidity---evidently the Russian SF does not believe in going in clean ---hey this is the old concept in Eastern Europe anyway---when one crosses an official border you might never know if you need your passport to cross back over---right--he was just being a little to pro-active and it got him killed.

[Firn]

They (re)occupied a region, that is supplied by Ukraine, with an economy much weaker than their own in order to secure a maritime base. This menas in my book they will have to pay.

Without occupation of eastern Ukraine Russia faces the interesting situation that parts of "her" industry are now located in a country that was turned from neutral/friendly to hostile by Russian operations. Great. BTW there are not only some production facilities for military hardware but also for oil/gas production and distribution in Ukraine. Of course they can rebuild this industry in Mother Russia, however, that will cost.

Occupation of eastern parts of Ukraine, again a region with weaker economy, may solve the industrial problem, but requires even more investments than the Krim.

Western Ukraine, a neutral or friendly buffer, is lost and a country with around ~30 million citizen (around 1/4 of the Russian population) will now spend recources to defend against Russian operations in future.

I agree. A key to understand the current crisis is that the personal goals of Putin and Russia aren't necessarily the same, to put it midly. This is true even if there is no doubt that for now, after massive propaganda campaigns, the Kremlin leader has a very strong popular backing.

PewGlobal has some interesting new polls:

More than seven-in-ten Ukrainians also express disappointment with Putin. Broad majorities of Ukrainians in the west (89%) and the east (66%) express no confidence in Russia’s president, while just 5% of residents of Crimea say the same. About half of Russian-only speakers (51%) in the east lack confidence in Putin’s foreign policy compared with 43% who say they trust him.

Ukrainians’ attitudes toward Russia also have changed significantly over time. Six-in-ten in Ukraine rate Russia unfavorably today, compared with just 11% in 2011, the last time the question was asked. Within Ukraine, there are deep divides by region and language. More than eight-in-ten in the country’s west (83%) give Russia low marks, compared with 45% in the east and only 4% in Crimea. Within the east, Russian-only speakers (28%) are less negative toward Russia than their neighbors (58%).2

It strongly supports the comment of many that almost all of Ukraine will be lost for quite some time for Russia as friend and partner. The aspect of the minority of the minority of Russian-only speakers which trust Putin is of course interesting.

But another survey, published by Ukraine's Razumkov Center last week, makes unhappy reading for the Russian President. The Razumkov pollsters said 54 percent of Ukrainian people want their country to join Nato, with just 32 percent against.

P.S: Good to see oversampling in the East and Crimea, given their smaller size. Russian-only speakers tend of course to be over-rappresented as they are considerable more urban then bilinguals.

Country: Ukraine
Sample design: Multi-stage cluster sample stratified by Ukraine’s six regions plus ten of the largest cities – Kyiv (Kiev), Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Odessa, Donetsk, Zaporizhia, Lviv, Kryvyi Rih, Lugansk, and Mikolayev – as well as three cities on the Crimean peninsula – Simferopol, Sevastopol, and Kerch
Mode: Face-to-face adults 18 plus
Languages: Russian, Ukrainian
Fieldwork dates: April 5 – April 23, 2014
Sample size: 1,659
Margin of error: +/-3.3 percentage points
Representative: Adult population (Survey includes oversamples of Crimea and of the South, East and Southeast regions. The data were weighted to reflect the actual regional distribution in Ukraine.)

[Stan]

Advanced and capable does not preclude stupidity---evidently the Russian SF does not believe in going in clean....

Hmmm, other than a spare mag of ammo, an exfil generally does not include dog tags and passport.

Explain this “old Eastern European Concept” as if it was still in play. I think today’s Russians are not the generation you speak of.

[Firn]

More abductions, torture seen in separatist-held eastern Ukraine is an article based on multiple sources which shouldn't surprise nobody which informed himself from time to time.

While definitive statistics on abductions are hard to come by, the Ukrainian Interior Ministry has reported some 500 cases since the onslaught of the conflict in April. The Amnesty report says that the UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission for Ukraine recorded 222 abduction cases in that time.

Human rights observers say the kidnappings by the rebels are meant to intimidate the local population. But hostages are also being kept and used as human shields, locked away in rooms of rebel-occupied buildings to keep Ukrainian forces from striking them by air and bombarding them with heavy artillery, observers say. Others are held for ransom.

On June 24, the UN Assistant Secretary-General for Human Rights Ivan Simonovic warned that the situation in eastern Ukraine is “rapidly deteriorating.” Three weeks on, Amnesty International says the situation is only worsening.

"The bulk of the abductions are being perpetrated by armed separatists, with the victims often subjected to stomach-turning beatings and torture," Amnesty's Deputy Europe and Central Asia Director Denis Krivosheev said, adding that there is also "evidence of a smaller number of abuses by pro-Kyiv forces."

Human right abuses get committed in practially every conflict and in this case it is pretty selfevident why payed thugs organized in an ad-hoc fashion with criminal interests intertwined with a political campaign mostly based on terrorism and hatred are responsible for most crimes and the most vicious at that.

Helluva job Putin, at making Russia an increasingly despised enemy in Ukraine instead of a 'slavic brother' and pushing your neighbours into the arms of the EU and US. The most cynical CIA plot could not have done a better job at that, congratulations.

[Dayuhan]

No question he has won outright on Crimea. (His step one)

That will seem a pretty hollow win if the rest of the Ukraine ends up under a pro-western government.

He is still sitting with Donetsk so maybe only a half step back... Which is understandable given US weakness and German gutlessness.

How is that understandable? If he sees himself faced by weakness and gutlessness, wouldn't the logical move be to take what he wants and establish a fait accomplii, as he did with Crimea? What does he gain by waiting? Not as if things have been going his way in the meantime.

[mirhond]

[QUOTE=Firn;158462]

Helluva job Putin, at making Russia an increasingly despised enemy in Ukraine instead of a 'slavic brother' and pushing your neighbours into the arms of the EU and US. The most cynical CIA plot could not have done a better job at that, congratulations.

During the "Gas wars" Russian public opinion was on the Ukrainian side - now it is not, so yes, Putin did a good job at consolidating support for all his actions. Besides, Ukraine drifts Westward for all 20 years of independence, bloody mess in the East just make this move faster.

[Ulenspiegel]

During the "Gas wars" Russian public opinion was on the Ukrainian side - now it is not, so yes, Putin did a good job at consolidating support for all his actions. Besides, Ukraine drifts Westward for all 20 years of independence, bloody mess in the East just make this move faster.

The NG problem, i.e. the theft of NG by Ukraine or better Ukranian and Russian oligarchs is solved around 2018, when enough additional pipeline capacity, that does not touch Ukraine and Poland, is available for Russia.

Therefore, the support of the Russians in respect to the gas war is not relevant argument, has no substance.

The shift of power from Ukraine to Russia would have happened anyway around 2018. The Ukrainian business model was expected to die.

[kaur]

All Is Not Well in Novorossiya
From Moscow to Donetsk, Russia's resurgent revanchists are turning against each other. Are Ukraine's pro-Russian firebrands too hot for Russia?

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/article..._putin_donetsk

Ukraine Determined to Avoid the “Frozen-Conflict” Paradigm

http://www.jamestown.org/single/?tx_...b#.U8ECLmIaySM

Russia’s Actions in Ukraine: Parallels with Other “Hot Spots” of the Former Soviet Union

http://www.jamestown.org/single/?tx_...b#.U8ECeGIaySM

[Ulenspiegel]

Yes Putin had the US, Germany and the EU in a state of panic over what they thought Putin's next move would be.

His first step was Crimea, the second was the threat to what you mention.

No question he has won outright on Crimea. (His step one)

He is still sitting with Donetsk so maybe only a half step back... Which is understandable given US weakness and German gutlessness.

I guess he is judging his moment to repeat the two steps forward.

To your surprise maybe, good strategy is developed and executed in cold blood with brain, guts, especially, testicles are no substitute. :-)

You have not delivered one coherent argument yet why the current strategic setup is a loss for the west. Hint, a good strategy emphasise own strengths and exploits at best at the same time the weaknesses of your opponent, that actually happens. The PR could be better, however, sunstance is more than ok.

Minor point, you obviously do not understand that the country which could put the Russians really between a rock and a hard place is not Germany, but the UK.

[mirhond]

The NG problem, i.e. the theft of NG by Ukraine or better Ukranian and Russian oligarchs is solved around 2018, when enough additional pipeline capacity, that does not touch Ukraine and Poland, is available for Russia.

Therefore, the support of the Russians in respect to the gas war is not relevant argument, has no substance.

The shift of power from Ukraine to Russia would have happened anyway around 2018. The Ukrainian business model was expected to die.

Firstly, It's still 2014, as far as I know, secondly, neglecting popular support is not a relevant course of action for polititian like Putin.

[kaur]

Unbelivable how Russian tank factory's blogger explains sitation to his readers. Workers of this factory went once to Moscow to protect Putin from orange revolution. Brigadier of one of the depatments became representative of huge Ural admisistrative region. There is no doubt, that somebody is covering his ass.

Sorry for Google translate, hope you'll get the point

Moreover, please look at the situation with unrecognized East Ukrainian republics (the actual area) with the other hand. Let's compare what is happening in Ukraine, with what happened in Russia in 1994-2000,. I'm talking about Chechnya!
93god 1991 - Russia's political crisis, the Emergency Committee, Parliament shot - why not Maidan? Only more global scale. The analogy is appropriate in any case.
####October 27, 1991 Dudayev was elected (!) President of the Chechen Republic. Parliamentary elections were held simultaneously Chechen Republic. His first decree of November 1, 1991 Dudayev declared independence Chechen Republic of Ichkeria from the RSFSR, which was not recognized by any Russian authorities, nor any foreign countries. Is not it - the situation with both 1x1 Novorussia? The Congress of People's Deputies formally pleaded not this election, as they have been in violation of applicable laws. Again 1x1 as now in Ukraine. Kiev legally (!) Elected government does not recognize the referendum Donbass, and probably rightly so. Some have questioned the legitimacy of elections Poroshenko under the pretext that the south-east in the election did not participate. And Chechnya took part in the election of Yeltsin in 1996 and Putin's 2000th? No! All exactly the same as it is now in the Ukraine! But somehow we, Russians, and patriots in particular, almost unanimously supported Putin in his call "Drown in the toilet" Chechen separatist terrorists and Poroshenko exactly the same as we call a fascist and compare with Hitler. With a frightened, exactly? Poroshenko - legally elected president of an independent state, and he is obliged to take all necessary measures to preserve the integrity of their country. Let us remember how Putin "Pinocchio" Komsomolsk burned. Why him for it no one calls a war criminal and no one threatens him with a new Nuremberg unlike Poroshenko? Or what's the difference between Raduev and light, well, if, of course, abandon our Great Russian nationalist prejudices? In practice it turns out that no! Do not try anyone of anything and nothing to convince approve. Just ask think to include brains, and remove the ears propaganda noodles, which we now actively hang on both conflicting parties.

http://gurkhan.blogspot.be/2014/07/blog-post_12.html

Plan B seems to be frozen conflict scenario. Russia feels very comfortable in those sitations.

[JMA]

They (re)occupied a region, that is supplied by Ukraine, with an economy much weaker than their own in order to secure a maritime base. This menas in my book they will have to pay.

Are you saying you don't understand the importance to Russia of the access to the Black Sea afforded by bases in Crimea? I would suggest they are prepared to pay... and with the annexation it will make it that much more difficult for Russia to hand Crimea back.

It seems that the patheticly weak response from the US and Germany to the annexation will serve to embolden Russia (as did the pathetic response from the West to the Russian aggression in Georgia in 2008). When will Russia make its next move? Not a matter of if, rather one of when.

When Ukraine promised to take Crimea back the Russians threatened to use nukes. That got the urine flowing on the White House floor again and the Germans no doubt making promises of no more sanctions.

Game, set and match to Russia.

Without occupation of eastern Ukraine Russia faces the interesting situation that parts of "her" industry are now located in a country that was turned from neutral/friendly to hostile by Russian operations. Great. BTW there are not only some production facilities for military hardware but also for oil/gas production and distribution in Ukraine. Of course they can rebuild this industry in Mother Russia, however, that will cost.

Occupation of eastern parts of Ukraine, again a region with weaker economy, may solve the industrial problem, but requires even more investments than the Krim.

I am no suggesting that Putin is the master strategist. Maybe his critics are correct that he is taking a short term view. It is not like he has any opposition... Obama and Frau Merkel's Germany are a joke. He has two years left of Obama... he can operate with much freedom, even a challenge to NATO (he would probably get away with).

Western Ukraine, a neutral or friendly buffer, is lost and a country with around ~30 million citizen (around 1/4 of the Russian population) will now spend recources to defend against Russian operations in future.

Ukraine was drifting away from Russia anyway (for good historical reasons) and Putin would have seen that. Putin would be smart enough to realise that there is no military threat from Ukraine and Europe (although he may play to the Russian audience in this regard).

[JMA]

Firstly, It's still 2014, as far as I know, secondly, neglecting popular support is not a relevant course of action for polititian like Putin.

You are correct... Ulenspiegel is obvoiusly not on the top of his game today.

[JMA]

To your surprise maybe, good strategy is developed and executed in cold blood with brain, guts, especially, testicles are no substitute. :-)

You have not delivered one coherent argument yet why the current strategic setup is a loss for the west. Hint, a good strategy emphasise own strengths and exploits at best at the same time the weaknesses of your opponent, that actually happens. The PR could be better, however, sunstance is more than ok.

Minor point, you obviously do not understand that the country which could put the Russians really between a rock and a hard place is not Germany, but the UK.

I would suggest to you that the annexation of Crimea by Russia is a big win for Russia. The western loss is that they - in this case - the US and Germany to be impotent and unable to restrain Russian territorial aggression.

Who are you trying to lecture?

Russia has made a move - even when not militarily in great shape which says more about the US and Germany than Russia - and the West have proved to be impotent. Russia has exploited the weakness in potential opponents with their current limited strength. That is not too difficult to understand is it?

The UK? Really? I suppose you are able to explain that?

[Firn]

A more recent map, the Ukrainian cyrillic script shouldn't pose much of a problem.



As I have written before the Lysychansk hub with a normal population around 350.000 seems to get increasingly isolated by the Ukrainian forces. Liberating such a densly populated area would greatly reduce the amount of citiziens living in what is to a good degree a reign of terror and crime.

Difficult to know from my perspective, but to me it seems that securing the borders does have a higher priority for the Ukrainians then taking the fight at once to Luhansk and Donetsk. At least most of the casualities come from border areas and some military progess too. There seem to be good reasons for such a focus:

1) The 'Grad' strike which created many military casualties underlines how important it is to stop at least heavy weapons like tanks and additional artillery supply coming from Russia. At least they are harder to smuggle then Manpads and ATGM once the border area gets secured.

2) Russian 'volunteers' will also have a bit harder time to get in and might fear that they won't get home that easily. Even if the 'frontline' seems to be rather porpous the risk to get killed or captured will be increased. Ideally this means that a good deal try to leave foreign land and go home as quickly as possible.

3) The civilians have more time to leave the cities and bring themselves in safety which means a lower risk of civilian casualities by combat and seperatist atrocities.

There has been certainly made considerable progess and for now the three largest broder crossings seem to be under Ukrainian control. Still it would surprise me if there still wouldn't be a constant influx of Russian war material into Ukraine, be it over the flat open countryside or the Seversky Donets.

Lots of fog of war of course and many unkowns. We will see.

[BrentWilliams]

A more recent map, the Ukrainian cyrillic script shouldn't pose much of a problem.



As I have written before the Lysychansk hub with a normal population around 350.000 seems to get increasingly isolated by the Ukrainian forces. Liberating such a densly populated area would greatly reduce the amount of citiziens living in what is to a good degree a reign of terror and crime.

Difficult to know from my perspective, but to me it seems that securing the borders does have a higher priority for the Ukrainians then taking the fight at once to Luhansk and Donetsk. At least most of the casualities come from border areas and some military progess too. There seem to be good reasons for such a focus:

1) The 'Grad' strike which created many military casualties underlines how important it is to stop at least heavy weapons like tanks and additional artillery supply coming from Russia. At least they are harder to smuggle then Manpads and ATGM once the border area gets secured.

2) Russian 'volunteers' will also have a bit harder time to get in and might fear that they won't get home that easily. Even if the 'frontline' seems to be rather porpous the risk to get killed or captured will be increased. Ideally this means that a good deal try to leave foreign land and go home as quickly as possible.

3) The civilians have more time to leave the cities and bring themselves in safety which means a lower risk of civilian casualities by combat and seperatist atrocities.

There has been certainly made considerable progess and for now the three largest broder crossings seem to be under Ukrainian control. Still it would surprise me if there still wouldn't be a constant influx of Russian war material into Ukraine, be it over the flat open countryside or the Seversky Donets.

Lots of fog of war of course and many unkowns. We will see.

The conflict seems to be fueled by a Russian UW campaign. Boarder to stop Russian support should be the primary military aim.

[OUTLAW 09]

Hmmm, other than a spare mag of ammo, an exfil generally does not include dog tags and passport.

Explain this “old Eastern European Concept” as if it was still in play. I think today’s Russians are not the generation you speak of.

Stan---what is and has not died is the eastern European is the belief that one must have a passport in order to cross borders or if need be prove that one is a Russian citizen thus it is not so strange that Russian irregular fighters carry passports---if in fact he was Russian SF which I do not believe he was---he definitely would have gone in clean but then the Ukrainian SBU has picked up GRU types carrying Russian passports.

So they are simply in the hectic of trying to get more irregular fighters into the Ukraine just sloppy.