Ukraine (closed; covers till August 2014)

[Dayuhan]

Dayuhan---here is another example of information warfare as Russia is playing it.

Today Interfax reported that the FSB counted 15 rounds of rocket fire landing on the Russian side of the border but somehow this great Russian security service know as the FSB "knows absolutely nothing" about mercenaries, tanks, artillery, a Buk SAM11, and BM21s going over the Russian border?

Exactly how ridiculous is that especially when we are talking about the FSB or former KGB.

Yes, it is extremely ridiculous, and also very obviously ridiculous. It's a good example of the Russian ineptness at handling information... who reads Interfax material anyway, and how many people are really going to believe it? The threat of an information campaign is measured not by its extent, but by its quality and its impact, areas where the Russians go badly wrong. Shoveling hotter fresher BS on top of old stale BS does not convince people. Eventually it just ends up discrediting the source.

Putin did of course get a patriotic bounce in popularity after Crimea, but how long will that last? Isn't there a deep-rooted cynicism and distrust toward official information in Russia? How long will it be before that takes over and the crude propaganda campaign starts shooting itself in the foot?

Outside of Russia Putin has a few admirers on the conspiracy theory fringe, largely among those who imagine him as a challenger to some imaginary "New World Order" construct and those who admire his strutting homophobic machismo. That's a fringe of a fringe, though, and one without influence. Of course those who really loathe the US will side with Russia by reflex, but that would be the case no matter what information goes around.

I really don't see Russian information operations as much of a threat. Extensive, yes... but effective? Are they selling the product? To who?

Dayuhan---I have said since the beginning of the Crimea here at SWC a number of times that the entire issue of the colored revolts/Maidan is a serious threat to both Russia and Putin.

Yes, many people have been saying this since long before the Ukraine events.