Ukraine (closed; covers till August 2014)

[OUTLAW 09]

How does a "criminal rouge state" act? What behaviors or characteristics define a "criminal rouge state"?

That is one definition of superpower - but that's a definition that has a perception of power as absolute. But since it's more important to measure relative power, the status of superpower should be reserved for the state or states that occupy a preeminent position relative to the other states. According to a quantitative study I started, there are in fact four super-powers today (in order): U.S., China, Russia, and Japan. The political, military, and economic capabilities have these states are statisically significant from other states. Russia's strength relies on, as you have noted, their military power, and it still does today.

The dismantling of the USSR of course severely damaged Russia's economic power, and here is the problem: Russia's economic power has in fact improved significantly between 1991 and 2014. But that's not the metric used by Russia's elite; the reference point is in fact the perception of the height of the USSR's power (early to mid 1980s). And the insecurity created by this dissonance between the ascribed and desired status of Russia in large part defines the framework of the state's foreign policy.



And that's an interesting evolution in Putin's policy: remember, he virtually inherited the presidency from the liberal faction when Yeltsin handed him the keys to power and for a time, he continued Yeltsin's approach with the West. Putin pushed for closer relationships with the West and championed Russia's inclusion into the World Trade Organization. In the opening phases of the War on Terrorism, he also offered to join the campaign since Russia has its own internal problems with Islamist terrorism. But what happened between 2001 and 2014? Bulgaria, Estonia, Lativa, Lithuania, Romania, Slovakia, and Slovenia all joined NATO. The Bush administration pushed for missile defense in Europe and abandoned its arms control agreement with Moscow. That was the start of the breach, and it was promptly widened further by other factors like the Iraq War, the war in Georgia, and so on.

Of course Putin is "anti-West". The U.S. is the preeminient power in the world tody. In the context of Russia's internal politics, with the aching for a restoration of Russia's power, defining oneself in opposition to the U.S. is sure to be political gold. The U.S. and Russia share responsibility in the collapse of bilateral relations; it's been a cycle of escalation for many years now. The question is how this development in the dyadic relationship will impact the international system and subsequently, international security. At what point was Russian intervention in Ukraine inevitable and what chain of events got us to that point?

The only example of complete Russian capitulation to the demands of a foreign power was World War I - and that was the Provisional Government after the failure of a military campaign in the midst of a domestic revolution. The U.S. may "win" Ukraine, and it may strengthen its political credibility among its European allies, but I doubt that will dissuade or deter Russia from pursuing actions contrary to U.S. interests. Sanctions and deploying U.S. troops to eastern Europe will serve as a signal that the U.S.-Russia conflict is now institutionalized, and it will facilitate further confrontation in the future when Russia responds in kind (and they will).

AP--would actually argue that the Soviet Union of the 70/80s was not an economic power--was there in 72 for over six weeks camping throughout the SU--if that was economic power then those in the Smokey Mountains were living in luxury.

The reason the SU collapsed as well as the GDR was in fact due to the failure of their economic systems---actually failures created by the Communist Party and the Soviet style of economical measurements of economic success--metric tons, feet of rolled steel, number of ships built and tons of grain produced etc.

The producing elements lied to the next higher and they lied to the highest and that misled the ruling elite to think they were succeeding beyond their wildest dreams. A total Ponzi scheme that started falling apart in the early 80s and even the citizens of the GDR and the SU knew it in the streets--the ruling elite did not though.

Do not forget for a moment that it was Putin as a KGB COL that recruited GDR citizens to potentially take over the GDR in a coup because he and other KGB officers in Dresden felt that Honecker was going weak. Notice the continence of thoughts and actions 38 years later?

Putin's anti west has been around for a really long time not just now.

Right now Russia is in fact a rouge country regardless of how one wants to define rouge.

Putin has his own doctrine now the Putin Doctrine which defines Russian territory to include any territory where Russians reside regardless if in another country---Russians as defined by ethnicity, culture, and language.

Based on that definition Mexico could claim to want to "represent " all "Spanish speakers" in San Antonia, TX based on Putin's definition, smuggle in irregulars and arms--- they would be in fact just be following Putin's led.

So with roughly 300 hotspots around the globe especially in Africa when language/ethnicity are now in play and border poorly drawn- the Putin Doctrine will raise it's head all over again and others will point to him and say he did it so can we.

I disagree--right now Putin needs the Euros/USDs as much as the west needs energy---the problem is this adventure of his will in fact damage an already struggling economy, modernization will be pushed aside, privatization which means really more oligarchs will be delayed if not pushed aside, and new technologies badly needed will not come in. So while the rest of the world develops Russia is going backwards after 1994 and even further backwards now with the sanctions.

On top of this to rebuild the abilities that the Russians have been getting cheap military equipment from the Ukrainians will cost a massive amount and years to replicate as well as a number of other technologies the Ukrainians have been providing at cheap rates much as they did under the SU days.

In some aspects the drive to rebuild the empire that Putin foresees is really the rebuilding of the economic imperialism of the SU where the satellites provided cheap products to the mothership.

You see the inability of Russia/Putin to answer the west sanctions outside of a threat to raise the gas prices and stop fruit and vegetables. Yes they can import the fruit and vegetables from China or other countries but not as cheap as they have been getting it from the EU, raise the gas prices and the EU cartel hammer comes down and the prices for EU goods going into Russia will be higher. And Putin runs the risk that the really hard sanctions on gas come into being driving even further his economy backwards.