Firn,

Thanks for the graphs. I don't the West is the target of the purpose of the Russian sanctions. The target remains Moscow's domestic audience to demonstrate the country's resolve in facing down the U.S. The people will be called to sacrifice for their patriotic duty.

As to the effectiveness of U.S. sanctions, I came across Economic Sanctions Reconsidered by Hufbauer, Schoot, and Elliot. In their analysis of sanctions, they cite Leyton-Brown in stating that "compellant purposes of sanctions are the most difficult to achieve..." based upon the ineffectiveness of sanctions to change the foreign policies of Cuba, Iraq, and North Korea. And they assessed that the overall effectiveness of sanctions (regardless of purpose; i.e. coercion, signalling, etc) is about 34% (as of 2007). The success rate for coercive sactions is 30%.