The sanctions against Iran have not altered Iran's foreign policy. Once you start breaking linkages with another state, you also remove leverage from influencing that state's policies.
Is that why Russia still occupies Crimea and supports the separatists in eastern Ukraine?The sanctions have been far more successful than many had anticipated and actually have worked quicker than many thought possible.
Right - as I've stated before, states are resilient and they tend to adapt to their changing circumstances.Russia plays a shell game ie Ponzi scheme in a number of their state owned businesses and have been living deeply on 90 day lines of credit and or financed major projects off of USD bond debts which will come due next year to the tune of 45B USD and now cut off from the international banking world damages their internal economy to an extent they themselves never calculated. Those companies hit by sanctions are now starting to ask for government assistance.
And, as argued in a recent Foreign Affairs contribution, the sanctions do not damage Russia's most important sectors nor diminishes the state's ability to finance its most important constituents.The food sanctions that Putin wanted to damage the west with will in fact damage his own economy as prices have raised 45% just in the last two days regardless of how his propaganda spins it---which is to protect their own manufacturing base for food.
And what will that do to gas prices in Ukraine, a country suffering from political crisis, economic fragility, and war?Watch what happens to Russia oil and gas earnings if the Ukraine via their own sanctions stops all transit of oil and gas to the west--right now the west is sitting on solid gas storage amounts and oil is easily replaced from other sources---but the loss of even three months of earnings will hurt especially if they take the transit stoppage up to say December.
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