Quote Originally Posted by Firn View Post
So far the political logic of sanctions against Russia seems to be:

a) Showing that all those words were not hollow
b) Impose rising costs for Russia to make it less likely that Putin 'escalates' further
c) Possibly also trying to make an international point with a + b
I think it's important to note the absence of reversing Russia's gains in Ukraine from your list. I don't think the ineffectiveness of sanctions in regards to reverse gains is lost on the Obama administration and I'm inclined to believe that the sanctions are an attempt at posturing vis-a-vis Russia for a better bargaining positioning down the road and to signal to U.S. allies (particularly Poland and the Baltic states) that the U.S. is committed to European security.

At some point, the escalation cycle will exhaust itself and both Washington and Moscow will be left staring at one another wondering what to do next. The only game-changer would be the prospect of the extermination of the separatists, which I think is highly likely to trigger further Russian escalation. Note that the Georgian conflict ended with a formal cease fire but many of the political and territorial issues remain unsolved and frozen for the time being. I suspect a similar situation to emerge in Ukraine - the exact boundaries of which are at this point unclear but at least include Russia keeping Crimea.