Oil shocks to date have, for the west at least, been less a matter of lack of supply than of very high prices: the oil has always been there, it's just been expensive. If supply does get really tight, the largest impact will be in oil-importing developing countries, who will find themselves priced out of the consumption picture, likely with serious unrest as a consequence.
To me the key to making a transition away from fossil fuels happen is maintaining a high price for fossil fuels. It sounds self-destructive and it would certainly be unpopular, but as a question of energy policy I think the US should be committed to keeping oil prices in the $100/bbl range. Of course that also means subsidizing a number of unpleasant regimes, but those regimes are less dangerous than the potential consequences of cheap oil.
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