Ukraine: military (Aug '14 to mid-June '15) closed

[OUTLAW 09]

Outlaw, for what it is worth Mirhond is providing a fascinating insight into a (the?) info campaign that Moscow would want us to believe. If I were you I would stop spending so much effort breaking down and attacking in detail everything said gentleman(s) states as it is pretty clear that his responses are going to continue regardless, and the general readership here can be trusted to make up an informed judgement overall.

One question I have which I have struggled to find an answer for is how large Russia's SF and SOF community is - I'm assuming that their SF have been involved, which seems to be safe judgement. Would Ukraine represent complete commitment and culmination for them, or would they be retaining some economies of scale and have some scope to expand their efforts at UW if opportunities became available, either in Ukraine or elsewhere in the FSU?

Although with each response he reveals more and more of the how they argue and the newest emphasis messaging---thus the constant pushing. Meaning if one pushes back does he respond or move on or if responds what is the response and the change of direction to avoid the push back--since the shoot down he is struggling actually to regain his footing as has their entire info war efforts.

It took a massive amount of push back to just get him to admit he was in Russia as he sidestepped that all the time.

The Russians have greatly expanded their SF abilities and have even complimented SOCOM by creating their own SOCOM and it falls to a degree under the GRU which also has recon/sabotage groups.

I linked the last day or so to a number of videos and photos depicting their SF/GRU equipment and their secure satcom radios taken from inside the Ukraine.

There was an interesting article today in Foreign Policy about the Russian UW efforts. If you look at their new military doctrine "New Generation Warfare" and their eight step approach to supporting political warfare they have reached step six with the introduction of actual Russian troops into the Ukraine.who some commenters here said would not be done.

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/article...aine_arms_nato

First six steps of their new UW doctrine---it is this doctrine that NATO announced today they will view as a trigger for Article 5 for NATO members.

The phases of new-generation war can be schematized as (Tchekinov & Bogdanov,
2013, pp. 15-22):
First Phase: non-military asymmetric warfare (encompassing information, moral, psychological,
ideological, diplomatic, and economic measures as part of a plan to establish a favorable
political, economic, and military setup).
Second Phase: special operations to mislead political and military leaders by coordinated
measures carried out by diplomatic channels, media, and top government and military agencies
by leaking false data, orders, directives, and instructions.
Third Phase: intimidation, deceiving, and bribing government and military officers, with the
objective of making them abandon their service duties.
Fourth Phase: destabilizing propaganda to increase discontent among the population,
boosted by the arrival of Russian bands of militants, escalating subversion.
Fifth Phase: establishment of no-fly zones over the country to be attacked, imposition of
blockades, and extensive use of private military companies in close cooperation with armed
opposition units.
Sixth Phase: commencement of military action, immediately preceded by large-scale reconnaissance
and subversive missions. All types, forms, methods, and forces, including special
operations forces, space, radio, radio engineering, electronic, diplomatic, and secret service
intelligence, and industrial espionage.

[kaur]

XX committee has translated last SBU tape.

The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) has released a new signals intelligence (SIGINT) intercept on its YouTube page (link here; see a follow-up report in the Kyiv daily Ukrayinska Pravda here) that it says demonstrates that Russian-backed separatists in the Donetsk area are targeting civilians. As Andriy Lysenko, spokesman for the Ukrainian National Security Council, explained today, the conversation provides evidence that the “terrorists” tried to lay blame for a shelling incident at Stepove on 15 August on Ukrainian forces, with the help of the Russian media.

The SBU intercept is a conversation between “Vovk” (Wolf), the deputy chief of state security for the “Donetsk People’s Republic” and “Korsa,” a female forward artillery observer for a unit of “Grad” 122mm multiple rocket launchers, the weapons that caused civilian casualties at Stepove.

http://20committee.com/2014/08/18/ru...ing-civilians/

[OUTLAW 09]

XX committee has translated last SBU tape.



http://20committee.com/2014/08/18/ru...ing-civilians/

kaur---great link---there have been countless false flag attacks against both the UA and civilians over the last two months and it seems often that even the western media tends to ignore it even when bloggers catch the open source evidence and geo tag it.

[OUTLAW 09]

XX committee has translated last SBU tape.



http://20committee.com/2014/08/18/ru...ing-civilians/

kaur--here is what puzzles me---the lack of a response by the entire west--actually JMA has been right all along.

In the face of verifiable open source information which you know both NATO and the US "sees" every day with the AWCSs and the E3s not a single voice from any EU nor US political leader has been raised that in fact there is a major armed conflict going on inside the Ukraine being fought with both Russian soldiers and irregulars and Russian heavy weapons.


After the downing of MH17 and now the shelling of civilians by Russian supplied BM21s with a verifiable voice intercept with the firing unit what was the response from the west---zip, nichts, nothing, nada.

And you cannot tell me the West did not see that happen via the AWCSs---if we can see the movement of Taliban in rugged mountains via GMTI we can certainly see a BM21 moving on level ground.

So it begs the question ---why no response by the west---was it not the west that argued if he goes in and it is verified then the sanctions will get harder---when a threat is issued and nothing follows it up then the western bluff was called.

That does not bode in the long term good for the Baltics even if Breedlove issued new NATO Article 5 guidelines---if NATO is not willing to move now then they will now move against an irregular "local force" in the future.

Putin has gone all in and is supplying arms, troops and heavy weapons.

There has been even open source comments and photos showing the burials of Russian airborne troops back in Russia who died during a "training accident"---what more does the west need?

https://twitter.com/lennutrajektoor/...23474419695616

It is almost like the US political leadership cannot address more than one international relations problem at a time--yes we bomb and hellfire the IS and get back onto the GWOT treadmill---but when US interests and especially the interests of the EU and NATO are far more deeply challenged then what is the US response---well let's see maybe we can negotiate or better Putin will come to his senses, or maybe if we ignore it will simply disappear like a bad dream.

That is the problem with soft power when one's bluff is called as Putin has just done the last week---what then do you have as a "soft power response"---not much would be the answer.

Soft power if backed up by a brutal sanctions regime if a certain line is crossed carries far more weight than say hard military power does but the US seems reluctant to use it and the EU most certainly will not use it.

[OUTLAW 09]

Seems that others in fact see the Russian troop and weapons movements as a Russian invasion.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/nathan...ushpmg00000014

Some here often pointed out the west did not know what the Russian demands were or that NATO had somehow violated an agreement that never existed outside of a personal one on one- one time event in the early 90s

Seems to me Putin has never come off his own declared doctrine of I can defend/invade countries if my fellow ethnic Russians are somehow discriminated against and his new political warfare using the strategy of UW.

Seems to me that even in the face of sanctions which are hurting his economy massively right now he still has not come off of those two stated demands---so how was again were negotiations to stop him?

And again I will point out---absolutely no responses from the west on the invasion efforts by Putin and his irregular/regular forces.

It is almost like everyone is watching the "aid convoy" and not noticing at night the massive movement of troops and heavy equipment across the same border area.

[kaur]

Outlaw, it seems that West is moving in it's own tempo. Western institutions just can't react to every new episode of warfare. EU has moved from mild indiviual persons and 10th rate firms to 3. phase sanctions. NATO is making new defence plans. Who could think about those in March? Russia has been much more quicker in OODA loop due to hesitation and threat perception in Western camp and structural logic of West's institutions. The longer Russia's hand is visible in Ukraine, the more hesitation and threat perception are fading in the West.

[Firn]

I was pretty sceptical about false flag artillery strikes attacking civilians by (Pro)Russians for Russian TV some weeks ago but more and more different sources are supporting those claims. The Ukrainian artillery has certainly killed civilians with artillery but with the Russian propaganda in overdrive it has a big demand for a constant feed of ever more gruesome stories and pictures. In addition artillery attacks on Russian territory might have to be fabricated as the Ukrainians have been weary to retaliate there.

[OUTLAW 09]

A convoy of military equipment from Russia has gone through the village of Mykolaivka-Stanichno in the Luhansk region, according to Informator, Espreso.TV reports.

“A caravan” with tanks, MLRS “Grad”, artillery and even field kitchens stretched for 1.5 kilometres. The convoy of technical equipment drove through the villages Pioneerske and Mykolaivka in the direction of Luhansk.

Subsequently, the convoy was spotted in the vicinity of the Epicenter hypermarket in the eastern neighbourhood. According to eyewitnesses, the military men talked with locals reluctantly, but nevertheless admitted that they are from Russia. The Russian green men” passed drove through Budennoho vul. [street] towards the city center.

Note: Through the border areas controlled by terrorists of the [so-called] Luhansk Peoples’ Republic (LNR) and the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) into Ukraine regularly pass convoys of Russian military equipment. The convoys are made up of soldiers of the Armed Forces of Russia.