Well nobody knows for sure where the oil price will go in the short run, so many factors, so much unknown. What is certain that Putin's Russia has in the last years steadily increased it's spending and needed with it's reliance on energy prices thus an ever higher floor.

NG prices play a smaller part. We already discussed that many big utilities in Europe have dialed down their demand for gas because it's often no longer competitive against coal with the problems on the emission market.

All in all so far Russias import bans seem to work as Econ 101 suggested they would.