Ukraine: military (Aug '14 to mid-June '15) closed

[OUTLAW 09]

8 Russian Paratroopers of the 76th Division from Pskov in Critical Condition at Luhansk Hospital

http://en.censor.net.ua/n299191

And the day ends in Europe with this report coming from CBS today:

Charlie KayeVerified account
‏@CharlieKayeCBS BREAKING. Pentagon: "Russia must remove its vehicles from the territory of Ukraine immediately."

Let's see if the US WH and Obama have anything to say by say 0900 European time Saturday and if Merkel in fact now goes to the Ukraine as her position in this game has been weakened as the Ukrainians currently are not so sure of the German overall position with regards to Russia.

[OUTLAW 09]

Appears critique of the Russian move has hit home as this was released this evening by RIA for the reasons they raced the aid to the separatists.

An interesting statement to say the least and designed to blunt any coming EU/NATO/US sanctions and political moves.

Notice they keep using the term international humanitarian norms but not defines just what those intl laws are---again goes back to they massive need to have everything "legal".

MOSCOW, August 22 (RIA Novosti) – Russia insists that its decision to speed up humanitarian cargo delivery to eastern Ukraine without waiting for Kiev’s formal approval was morally right and fully in line with the international norms, the Russian Foreign Ministry said Friday.

“We act fully in line with norms of the international humanitarian law,” Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said in a statement.

“We cannot and will not tolerate the plight of people living in protesting South-Eastern Ukraine,” the deputy foreign minister added.

“We are sure that we did the right thing. And we accuse Kiev and its backers of repeatedly putting their political interests, which are anti-Russian in essence, above the basic human values of kindness and compassion,” Ryabkov continued.

[OUTLAW 09]

This appears to be a new Russian reason for moving the aid convoy over the border without asking anyone.

Seems the Russian "story" is changing hourly.

From the Russian Ambassador to the UNSC:


The items which are perishable, says #Churkin - 'particularly the food for children'


#Churkin at #UNSC - 'some of the aid items are perishable so we told the #Ukraine authorities 'we cannot procrastinate any longer''

[OUTLAW 09]

This appears to be a new Russian reason for moving the aid convoy over the border without asking anyone.

Seems the Russian "story" is changing hourly.

From the Russian Ambassador to the UNSC:


The items which are perishable, says #Churkin - 'particularly the food for children'


#Churkin at #UNSC - 'some of the aid items are perishable so we told the #Ukraine authorities 'we cannot procrastinate any longer''

Another Russian FM excuse for the aid trucks crossing without ICR/Ukrainian approval:


Daniel Sandford ✔ @BBCDanielS

Tonight at Ten: A Lukashevich of @mfa_russia tells me "Kiev has desperately attempted to derail the very important humanitarian operation."

[AmericanPride]

If one reads the international definition of what constitutes a declaration of war and what constitutes what an invasion is defined as----Just what now is the US strategy outside of talking and threatening more sanctions?

The U.S. doesn't have a strategy outside of sanctions. The traditional tool - military coercion - is ill advised in this situation.

It seems the US is more interested in bombing the IS and not focusing on central Europe as are the Germans who want to ship anti tank weapons to the Kurds for use against ---what kind of IS armored vehicles do they currently have in their inventory vs say the Ukrainian Army that is seeing countless Russian APCs, T64, T72s and now T90s and they are killing UA personnel.

Because bombing IS doesn't invite further escalation from a nuclear armed state that is also capable of spoiling U.S. interests in other parts of the globe. Ukraine is not the exclusive or primary interest of the U.S.

Does this make sense to anyone?

Yes - the Obama administration is not interested in escalating the conflict between the U.S. and Russia to include acts of violence between the two states. Russian acts of war in Ukraine is one thing - inviting military action between the U.S. and Russia is another. This is something I've repeatedly mentioned in this thread and others regarding escalating the conflict.

There are still no viable proposals made to coercivelly reverse Russian gains in Ukraine. Do you have any? The Kiev offensive is probably pretty close to triggering further Russian escalation - we've already seen steady escalation despite sanctions and condemnations. So I'm confident that we are pretty close to a negotiated settlement, with the next round of talks to take place in the coming days between the Russian and Ukrainian heads of state.

[carl]

So I'm confident that we are pretty close to a negotiated settlement, with the next round of talks to take place in the coming days between the Russian and Ukrainian heads of state.

Come back to this statement in 7 days time and 14 days time and lets see how you did. Then in one months time after that.

Can you do that?

[AmericanPride]

Come back to this statement in 7 days time and 14 days time and lets see how you did. Then in one months time after that.

Can you do that?

Sure - conflicts aren't resolved in one sitting. That the Ukrainian and Russian governments are coming together to initiate talks is a good indicator that both sides prefer a negotiated settlement than continuing with Clausewitz's reciprocal actions until one or the other is destroyed. At some point, they will come to terms, whatever they determine those terms to be.

An announcement that weapons are coming would cause Vlad to have a kiniption and threaten all sorts of things.

Probably. The problem is that the Russians are in a position where they can continue escalating the conflict with minimal internal costs.

But he ain't gonna start WWIII over some anti-tank missiles.

No - but he could probably double the amount of Russian soliders operating in Ukraine.

And with money and weapons to the Ukrainians the potential Russki body count goes way up. That is one thing Vlad hasn't had to deal with yet, lots of actual Russki soldiers getting killed.

Interesting you should say that and then also claim that Russian state control of the media distorts the public's perceptions of the actual costs to the state. So how do you reconcile those two points?

But if their contract professional soldiers start dying, things change.

Things change for who?

[OUTLAW 09]

The U.S. doesn't have a strategy outside of sanctions. The traditional tool - military coercion - is ill advised in this situation.



Because bombing IS doesn't invite further escalation from a nuclear armed state that is also capable of spoiling U.S. interests in other parts of the globe. Ukraine is not the exclusive or primary interest of the U.S.



Yes - the Obama administration is not interested in escalating the conflict between the U.S. and Russia to include acts of violence between the two states. Russian acts of war in Ukraine is one thing - inviting military action between the U.S. and Russia is another. This is something I've repeatedly mentioned in this thread and others regarding escalating the conflict.

There are still no viable proposals made to coercivelly reverse Russian gains in Ukraine. Do you have any? The Kiev offensive is probably pretty close to triggering further Russian escalation - we've already seen steady escalation despite sanctions and condemnations. So I'm confident that we are pretty close to a negotiated settlement, with the next round of talks to take place in the coming days between the Russian and Ukrainian heads of state.

So AP let's see your arguments that go like this;

1. Russia is a nuclear power and therefore "owns" central and eastern Europe to do as they will because we the US have no what business interests to the tune of billions which also drives the US economy and we the US have never claimed that we are not somehow leading the western world nor are member of the Altantic Council/NATO and oh by the way we signed a memorandum protecting the sovereignty of the Ukraine that now when we are called out on we what simply say it is not our problem

2. IS is not a threat to the US ---a threat to the existing borders of four countries in the ME yes they are but it is not up to the US to settle that particular area and if you would follow the IS thread you would fully understand I have been along with two others have often stated we fully never understood Iraq nor QJBR/AQI/ISIL/IS and what bombing trucks in the desert is more important than what...?

3. was it not you yourself that argued yes if we just appease and negotiate and understand the Russia desires to reinstate the Soviet Union this whole thing will simply disappear---you never have seemed to fully understand the ethnic nationalist imperialism that Putin and the elites around him have called into being---some would call it a new form of state fasicism

5. some commenters here state often populations have the right to define their own rule of law and good governance but when a population stands up and states their desire and a neighboring country feels "threatened" by that and decides I will unleash my newest military doctrine to curb their stated ROL/GG that is what something to "appease"

Come on AP "understand" the world you claim to be "seeing".

Also still awaiting your stated "negotiating solutions"---and my response was what---"negotiate what".

And AP what was just pulled by Russia yesterday---again my response negotiate what? there have been five different sets of arguments coming out of Moscow by 21:00 last night on why they pulled their aid stunt.

Again go back and Google the terms invasion and what defines a declaration of war.

Go back a reread the Russian New Generation Warfare and then tell me what Phase of that eight phase doctrine Russia is in currently.

Go back and reread the term political warfare and then try to explain to me you are not seeing that in the current Russian actions.

[AmericanPride]

So AP let's see your arguments that go like this;

Let's measures the accuracy of your characterizations.

1. Russia is a nuclear power

Yes, I have stated this fact a number of times. In contrast, you seem to ignore this fact when advocating for continued escalation in confronting Russia or in building an achiveable policy capable of fulfilling U.S. interests.

and therefore "owns" central and eastern Europe

Incorrect. I have not stated that Russia "owns" eastern Europe. I have, however, stated that Russia, as a state, has material interests that it pursues with rational policy, and that these interests should be taken into account when the U.S. develops policy towards Russia.

because we the US have no what business interests to the tune of billions which also drives the US economy

Incorrect. I have stated that Ukraine's territorial integrity is not the exclusive nor most important U.S. interest in the world.

and we the US have never claimed that we are not somehow leading the western world nor are member of the Altantic Council/NATO

Incorrect. I have stated that Ukraine is not a NATO member and by implication, the U.S. has no security obligations towards Ukraine.

and oh by the way we signed a memorandum protecting the sovereignty of the Ukraine that now when we are called out on we what simply say it is not our problem

What material obligations does that memorandum impose upon the U.S. in this situation?

2. IS is not a threat to the US

That would be contrary to the opinion of many leading analysts in government and scholarship.

---a threat to the existing borders of four countries in the ME yes they are but it is not up to the US to settle that particular area

Settling that region's problems is one thing. Securing U.S. interests is another. And yes - the U.S. has to actively protect its interests in the region.

was it not you yourself that argued yes if we just appease and negotiate

Incorrect. I never said 'appease'. I said negotiate. It's fully possible to negotiate without 'appeasment'.

and understand the Russia desires to reinstate the Soviet Union this whole thing will simply disappear

Incorrect. I have said repeatedly that it is important to understand the material interests of the Russian state, and what policies they are pursuing to achieve them. Dismissing them out of hand is an error of the first order.

---you never have seemed to fully understand the ethnic nationalist imperialism that Putin and the elites around him have called into being---some would call it a new form of state fasicism

Incorrect. I have in fact pointed out that all of Russia's conflicts since 1991 have involved problems of ethnic nationalism (and normalizing borders and state building). I have also pointed out that Russia historically was and largely remains an imperial state that does not fully conform to the principles of Westphalian nation-statehood.

Also still awaiting your stated "negotiating solutions"---and my response was what---"negotiate what".

This has already been addressed more than once. Repeatedly asking the same question does not constitute an argument - it's actually a failure to undersand the argument.

Again go back and Google the terms invasion and what defines a declaration of war.

How many wars end with negotiated settlments and how many end with the annihilation of one of the belligerents?

You seem fixated on the idea that I am not aware that Russia has been pursuing acts of aggression of Ukraine. I've acknowledged this many pages ago. It's time to move the argument forward. You have left many questions unanswered about the preferable U.S. outcome, what policy options are available to achieve it, and how to compel Russia to terminate the conlfict.

[OUTLAW 09]

8 Russian Paratroopers of the 76th Division from Pskov in Critical Condition at Luhansk Hospital

http://en.censor.net.ua/n299191

And the day ends in Europe with this report coming from CBS today:

Charlie KayeVerified account
‏@CharlieKayeCBS BREAKING. Pentagon: "Russia must remove its vehicles from the territory of Ukraine immediately."

Let's see if the US WH and Obama have anything to say by say 0900 European time Saturday and if Merkel in fact now goes to the Ukraine as her position in this game has been weakened as the Ukrainians currently are not so sure of the German overall position with regards to Russia.

Reference the Russian airborne WIAs:


Jerry @jerrym10000 · 6h

N Stanko, HromadskeTV: 8 #Russian paratroopers from Pskov in difficult condition in #Lugansk hospital +30 transported to hospital in #Rostov

[OUTLAW 09]

Rear Admiral Ihor Kabanenko: Three powerful groups of Russian troops have been identified

Posted on August 22, 2014 by chervonaruta


By Rear Admiral Ihor Kabanenko, Deputy Minister of Defense of Ukraine
08.22.2014
Translated and edited by Voices of Ukraine

Three powerful groups of Russian troops have been identified, who are in full combat readiness at our borders and in the Crimea: “North,” “Center” and “South.” The movement of troops demonstrates their preparation for something. This “something” may soon be:
1.The continuation of the “back and forth” near our borders with the aim of provocative and intimidating methods while at the same time of expanding the zones of instability with the use of Russian special forces (commandos).
2.Invasion under the guise of “peacekeeping operations” with the goal of mastering Dnipropetrovsk (main), Odessa and Kyiv occupations of the respective territories of Ukraine.

All this will be accompanied by an information-psychological operation aimed at our military and population.