Iraq: Out of the desert into Mosul (closed)

[OUTLAW 09]

AFAIK, it's not 'the intelligence'. At least 'not any more', and that 'since long'.

Contrary to what happened in the Ukraine (where there seems to have been a lack of expertise, which resulted in nobody correctly predicting Russian reaction to the Maidan Revolution, see bellow), intel is doing its job in regards of Iraq (and Syria). And quite decently too. Just, and precisely like the military, intel has political masters. And that's where the problem seems to be - which is what I get to hear from a number of (unofficial) contacts in the DC, which in turn are confirmed by what can be read in articles like Saving Syria Is No ‘Fantasy’



Obviously, one can have all means of intelligence on hand, all the necessary info, best advice - and still insist on making wrong decisions. Perhaps being a 'Nobel Peace-Price laureate' makes one 'knows better'...?

Who knows.


That situation was different, and here one gets to hear an entirely different set of comments - usually in following direction: Funding cuts, lack of opportunity leave US without expertise on international hot spots. Specifically:



Another 'influential' problem can be found few levels below that one, within circles of various advisers. These are not only lacking the expertise in regards of Russians, but excel at ideas that are 'better' than Startrek and similar, science-fiction productions. For example, one of 'closed doors' discussions in the DC I was able to follow the last few months was characterised by specific (usually rather 'vocal') talking-heads providing ideas like, 'arm Israelis with B-52s, so they can bomb Russia in return for its invasion of the Ukraine' or 'ask Beijing to send troops' (whether to Syria or Ukraine, pick your choice).

Overall, I have absolutely no concern about the WH applying 'maskirovka' upon the ISIS. Nor about the functionality of the US intel. It's simply so that crucial advisers and 'the man' in the WH are better at playing golf than at running US foreign politics.

Crowbat---here is where we disagree.

1. US in 2003 did not know about the underground Salafist fight against Saddam ongoing since the mid 90s---how did the CIA/DIA/NSA miss that one after Desert Storm?---especially if we were providing assistance to Iraq up to 1988.

2. did the US IC have a full understanding of the various Sunni groups even after 2010---no not really even now they fully do not understand them nor the tribes current positions in relationship to IS---one just needed to see up through 2009 the utterly countless intel reports on what they thought the strengths were for each group and AQI

3. even now the US leadership and that includes the IC seems to not fully understand just how the IS became so successful---that does not lend itself to believing as you do they in fact know a lot via intelligence---this by the way contradicts statements made recently by the JCoS about IS

4. we do not even know the intentions of the current Shia milita leaders and the individual Shia militias and the interconnections--even less on the Iranian involvement via Quds and the SU25s

So the idea that the US IC knows everything is a tad off---do you not think?

And I go back and again ask --just what is the US strategy for both Iraq/and Syria?--there is none for the Ukraine.

And I go back and state again--billions literally billions was spent on new intel equipment/software/drones, ISR sensors/aircraft and thousands of intel defense contractors and what we know nothing in the Ukraine?---come on where--- then where is the failure?

But then if we do know then why the silence?---- because that silence is totally deafening here in Europe.

Check the blogging space --they know more now than does Obama on the current battlefield status in the Ukraine--ask the simple question--how is it possible that social media using 30000000% less in costs ----out reports and reports quicker than the IC can do? But again notice the silence from the IC on the Ukraine---deafening.