Stepping back a bit back, how long will this war go on?
i) Putin has already annexed a part of Ukraine and seems to want another slice of it - at least that is what Ukraine and other powers have to take earnestly into account.
ii) Putin got overall the initiative by breaking the political gameplay in Europe after suffering a crushing blow by the Maidan movement. Against his political and military aggression Ukraine and the West moved rather slowly and confused. However there has been some (economic) pushback and even the mild means are harming Russia.
iii) Overall Putin's aggressive political goals forced him to involve more and more the regular armed forces which are likely not as motivated or well trained as some of the formations employed earlier.
iv) The Russian economy is suffering already considerable damage, far more then EU one. It is difficult to see any big positive development unless this war stops. The balance sheet remains strong but the economy as a whole is heading downwards.
v) The Russian aggression seems to be at least partly motivated by internal politics and enabled Putin to step up the oppression at home considerably, supported by a vicious propaganda campaign against his opponents.
So what would stop his war?
I will post more on the Ukrainian and on the Western side of the conflict, but so far the guy who lost Ukraine for Russia has only chosen escalation and violence to take at least parts from it.
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