Quote Originally Posted by carl View Post
I don't think you've factored human emotion into the equation. A lot of people have died. That tends to get people's back up and then they aren't so amenable to neat and tidy considerations of what might upset the status quo.
This is true - and it's going to be a major problem for the Kiev government. All of the fighting, deaths, and destruction of property has occurred in the east; regions already dissatisfied with the central government. Will the population blame the Russians or the government in Kiev for their circumstances? How will Kiev treat the political opposition and the demobilization of the armed militants? How will Kiev regulate the operations of pro-government militias and their treatment of the population?