Assessing Al-Qaeda (merged thread)

[Bill Moore]

http://www.longwarjournal.org/archiv...ranc-print.php

As Sahab, al Qaeda's official media outlet, released a lengthy video promoting the creation of al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent today. The video, which was published on various Internet video sites, including YouTube, features Ayman al Zawahiri as well as Asim Umar, the new emir of al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent, and Usama Mahmoud, the group's spokesman. The video was translated by the SITE Intelligence group.

"A new branch of al-Qaeda was established and is Qaedat al-Jihad in the Indian Subcontinent, seeking to raise the flag of jihad, return the Islamic rule, and empowering the Shariah of Allah across the Indian subcontinent," Zawahiri says in the opening of the video, according to the translation by SITE.

Business should be good for this franchise since it is focused on of the most densely populated areas in the world with a wide spectrum of social and political issues, and questionable security forces.

Pakistan, India, and Bangladesh will need to cooperate at unprecedented levels to cut out this cancer before it metastasizes.

[Bill Moore]

I think the AQ's evolving strategy, to include the associated two-arm strategy is showing a level of strategic maturity not seen before. I know there are many who think AQ can't establish a presence in India, but I think that is wishful thinking. India has more people living in abject poverty than all of Africa, and much of its large Muslim population lives in poverty and has a history of being discriminated against. Islamic terrorist events happen in India periodically already, so it is probable AQ will enjoy some success, how much depends on a lot of factors.

http://www.isn.ethz.ch/Digital-Libra...ail/?id=184986

Al Qaeda's "Resurgence" Focuses on Indian Subcontinent

AQ's new magazine is released, and it principally focuses on South Asia.

The reasons for the delay in its release are not publicly known. At 117 pages, the magazine covers a variety of jihadist topics. But the content of the magazine is heavily focused on recent events, especially al Qaeda's activities in the Indian Subcontinent.

It was produced by As Sahab, al Qaeda's propaganda arm. However, "(Subcontinent)", has been appended to As Sahab's name, suggesting that the media wing has rebranded at least part of its operation to focus on the region.

Al Qaeda emir Ayman al Zawahiri and other senior jihadists announced the creation of al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS), al Qaeda's newest regional branch, in early September. Much of "Resurgence" is devoted to AQIS propaganda.

It also addresses economic targeting, and demonstrates knowledge of the impact of insurance costs on commercial shipping if the perception of the threat rises.

there is an "energy umbilical cord which [sic] sustains western economies" and "stretches across hundreds of miles of pipelines and sea lanes." This "represents the Achilles heel not just of the energy market, but also of western economies dependent on oil from the Muslim world."

Khalid argues that a strategy of "sustained disruption in this supply system would not only increase insurance costs for international shipping, but also affect the price of oil globally, making the theft of our petroleum resources an expensive venture for the West." Khalid then delves into an in-depth assessment of various "choke points," explaining the relative virtues of striking them.

Khalid believes that the time is coming for a sustained campaign of "economic warfare

They have been doing their homework, and for those that study strategy they'll see some familiar themes from the Cold War, but updated for current conditions. I suspect we'll start seeing something along the lines of "unrestricted warfare" from non-state groups who will operate not only in the human domain, but the cyber, maritime, and with UAVs in the air domains.

http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2014/...ref=world&_r=0

Officials Fear Al Qaeda Grooming Indian Militants for Big Attacks

But Indian security agencies said evidence they had gathered pointed to growing ties between al Qaeda and IM, a home-grown movement hitherto known for low-level attacks on local targets using relatively crude weapons like pressure cooker bombs.

Weeks after al Qaeda announced the formation of a South Asia wing to strike across the subcontinent, agencies said they had discovered IM members were training with al Qaeda and other groups in Pakistan and Afghanistan for major attacks.

[davidbfpo]

Bill,

In response and citing only one section:

I know there are many who think AQ can't establish a presence in India, but I think that is wishful thinking. India has more people living in abject poverty than all of Africa, and much of its large Muslim population lives in poverty and has a history of being discriminated against. Islamic terrorist events happen in India periodically already, so it is probable AQ will enjoy some success, how much depends on a lot of factors.

It is interesting that AQ has to date been unable to have a presence in India, even though the jihadist cause has some adherents and can launch effective attacks (I exclude Mumbai as being an external operation).

From a global perspective it is important that the jihadist cause fails in India. Elsewhere there are posts, if not threads, debating whether AQ plus gains most where there are poor Muslims discriminated against.

[davidbfpo]

There is a new (forthcoming?) book that may assist readers: 'The Evolution of the Global Terrorist Threat: From 9/11 to Osama bin Laden's Death', which is part of the Columbia Studies in Terrorism and Irregular Warfare. The editors are Bruce Hoffman (from Georgetown Uni) and (Spainiard) Fernando Reinares:http://www.amazon.com/The-Evolution-...283155&s=books

No reader reviews yet, although comments by SME like Peter Bergen.

There is a very short review here. I note Hoffman now says the 7/7 attacks were not an independently launched attack; Fernando has in the past upset officials by saying the Madrid railway station bombings were directed by AQ.

Link:http://www.publishersweekly.com/978-...-0-231-16898-4

[Bob's World]

India often describes itself as the "World's largest democracy"; but I have heard others state that condition of governance from the other perspective, as "The World's largest oppressed minority."

If that is true, and if that minority is Sunni, then AQ will have a market to leverage.

[Bill Moore]

I suspect there are thousands of Muslims in India and Bangladesh willing to support AQ. They already support other terrorist/insurgent/separatist movements in this region. AQ needs to win over just a slice of this spectrum to he effective in creating a crisis of confidence. Furthermore their attack on the Pakistani naval vessel may have failed, but it was sophisticated and bold. AQ linked elements failed the first time they attacked the WTC. We only fool ourselves when we dismiss these threats.

[davidbfpo]

Bruce Reidel writes again - taking a global, strategic look - in a 'War of Ideas' commentary and concludes:

The defeat of Islamic extremism requires both hard and soft power responses. Drones need be matched with deeds that expose the false precepts of Al Qaeda's narrative. Today the hard power part of our war effort is stretched across Africa and Asia. And the soft-power part of the strategy? That appears, at best, to be feeble, at worst to have atrophied altogether.

Link:http://www.thedailybeast.com/article...-no-idea.html?