Ukraine: military (Aug '14 to mid-June '15) closed

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Ukraine and pro-Russia rebels sign ceasefire deal

According to the BBC:

The Ukrainian government and pro-Russian rebels have signed a truce deal to end almost five months of fighting.

The two sides, meeting in Belarusian capital Minsk, agreed to stop firing at 15:00 GMT. However, the rebels said the truce had not changed their policy of advocating separation from Ukraine.

Now nobody knows of course how long this ceasefire will last and the political positions are obviously wide apart with the aggressor not even officially involved and only getting 'informed'.

President Petro Poroshenko said the ceasefire was based on a 12-point peace plan that included the release of "hostages", which he said would probably happen on Saturday.

"It is very important that this ceasefire lasts long, and during this ceasefire we continue the political dialogue to bring peace and stability," he said.

One can only speculate what motivated Putin and Poroshenko to reach that ceasefire. Some possible explanations:

The Kremlin's possible views:

1) Putin might want avoid the new turn of heavier sanctions which might hurt heavily and already weak Russian economy

2) Putin could fear a negative public fallout of further casualities in an invasion not supported by the Russian population. There have been already to many to hide.

3) Putin might be convinced that the Ukrainian forces took enough of a beating in the recent fightings to make a new offensive unlikely.


Kyiv's possible views:

1) Right now with so many Russian regulars inside there is no hope of military victory for the time being.

2) The ceasefire gives the Ukrainian forces to regroup and replenish with some Western help after the heavy casualities suffered in the last days.

3) It also means lower loss of life for Ukrainian citiziens, although it is likely that the speratists will continue to kidnapp, torture and murder

4) The heavily suffering economy might get more easily supported without fighting a war.

5) The political elections could give the Poroshenko and his allies a large majority in the legislative branch.

6) The Western sanctions and the weak Russian economy might suffer relatively more in the next months.


The conflicting Western view:

1) Overall of the ceasefire might raise some hope that a 'political solution' if hard to see what it might, could possibly be achieved. Most should be highly sceptical.

2) Some might be happy if no new sanctions 'have to be' put in place: Hungary, Slovakia, Czech Republic and Cyprus are very likely among them with Austria, Finland as well as Italy and France being possibly not far behind. Some European economies have suffered some damage and would like to avoid further problems.

3) Others might be disappointed not have pushed the new sanctions through and could see Putin's offering as a smokescreen and cheap diversion.


We will see...