Actually, as the head of state of one of the belligerents in the conflict, he's one of the principal actors. The other major player in Kiev politics at this moment is unabashedly pro-West (and pro-war) Prime Minister Yatsenyuk who opposes the terms of Poroshenko's proposal. So how that plays out will have significant consequences both for Ukraine's political stability as well as its security. Your obsession with Russia's political-military strategy is bordering on shrill.
Ukraine was 'picked' because following the collapse of the Yanukoyvch government and the triump of the Maiden Revolution, Russia had few non-military options to rapidly and decisively restore its leverage in the country. That the conflict has now escalated from Ukraine's internal politics to broader East-West relations is an indicator of a failure in conflict management in Washington, Moscow, and the European capitals.
There is
no evidence that the sanctions have or will reverse Russia's political gains in Ukraine. Sanctions have not liberated the Donbas or defeated the pro-Russian paramilitaries operating in the region. The historical data suggests that sanctions rarely have the effect of changing a state's foreign policy. The problem with sanctions is that over time their utility diminishes as states adapt to the new circumstances.
Negotiations have achieved the cessation of Ukraine's bloody hemorrhaging of territory and treasure which would have continued otherwise. Is your alternative to a negotiated settlement perpetual conflict between Ukraine and Russia?
Yep - and I have stated from the start that the West and Ukraine were severely unprepared for Russia's campaign. When it's recognized that one is in a losing position and can't catch up without significant losses, it's better to make a quick end of it and cut your losses. Every loss in pursuit of defeat is a waste.
And how will that be managed with a negotiation between Ukraine and Russia to determine the terms?
Looks like you read Alexander Motyl's Foreign Affairs article. But it's interesting now that after your many months of your crusade to demonize Russia, you are willing to write off eastern Ukraine and Crimea and hand it over to them in the name of "realpolitik". Had the pro-West faction in Ukraine's government negotiated an end to Ukraine's internal turmoil in say November, March, or April, Ukraine would not be in this position in the first place.
So, Ukraine losing a war, a third of its territory, thousands of lives, and millions of dollars is a "win win"? Now
that's an "alternate state of reality".
Yep - there were opportunities in November, March, and April to resolve this conflict before Russia committed itself fully to this outcome.
Yes - the positive that was "basically achieved" was averting total disaster for Ukraine.
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