Iraq: Out of the desert into Mosul (closed)

[SWJ Blog]

The Best Strategy to Handle ISIS: Good Old Containment

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[davidbfpo]

'Brown Moses' is cited in the Canadian story:

The air strikes against al-Nusra – one of the most effective anti-Assad forces – threaten to drive the group into an alliance with Islamic State, while marginalising the “moderate” Free Syrian Army. The two Islamist groups had previously been fighting each other. “They’re bombing for the Iraqi government without thinking about the consequences it’s going to have for the Syrian opposition....The only person who’s really happy so far is [Syrian President Bashar] Assad,” Mr. Higgins said.

Link:http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/...ticle20799177/

[davidbfpo]

A short comment, which is sub-titled 'Why bombing Syria could turn out to be a disasterous mistake' by Clints Watts:http://www.politico.com/magazine/sto...#ixzz3ESZPFEwU

A taster:

In other words, the United States could win some tactical victories by hitting both groups hard in Syria, but might be committing a massive strategic blunder by uniting a jihadi landscape it desperately sought to fracture over the past decade.

[OUTLAW 09]

It seems that the US bombing is in fact driving the more "moderate" Islamists into the IS cam further isolating the SFA.

Does anyone in the WH understand the ME or better yet does anyone understanding the Islamist movements?

Seems US has already lost the narrative on the ground in Syria in less than a week. ‘Moderate’ rebels condemning bombings + pro-JN rallies.

[OUTLAW 09]

This is one of the first breakouts I have seen on social media about the numbers of foreign fighters broken down by the country they come from.

Notice who leads in provided foreign fighters into Syria---Russia by far.

https://twitter.com/Ukrainian_State/...184769/photo/1

[davidbfpo]

This is one of the first breakouts I have seen on social media about the numbers of foreign fighters broken down by the country they come from.

Notice who leads in provided foreign fighters into Syria---Russia by far.

https://twitter.com/Ukrainian_State/...184769/photo/1

Outlaw09,

I'd say every fortnight a chart appears on SM. Most depend on the figures collected by ISW, ICSR and a few others. Recently I saw one that emphasised the numbers from Arab nations, I don't recall Russia figuring very high.

[OUTLAW 09]

Outlaw09,

I'd say every fortnight a chart appears on SM. Most depend on the figures collected by ISW, ICSR and a few others. Recently I saw one that emphasised the numbers from Arab nations, I don't recall Russia figuring very high.

David---would normally tend to agree but there have been slowly emerging reporting about the flow of Russian Islamists into the ME and then drifting back into Russia.

If one watches on a daily basis Interfax releases you will see an average of one report every other day on "suppressing terrorists" somewhere in the RF Islamic regions.

Then today there was a video/picture released via twitter indicating a fight breaking out between Moscow police and Muslims near local city buses.

Clashes between police and Moscow's muslims
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qjaguxKwkyo …

pic.twitter.com/JFYukK6UFt

Tensions are slowly rising between the Muslim portions of the RF and the security forces.

Secondly one of the best tacticians training IS before he was "allegedly" killed came from Russia as well as a large number of fighters together with him since the beginning in Syria.

[OUTLAW 09]

#Iraq New batch of russian MI-35s combat helicopters delivered to Iraqi Army (some sources say 10 Mi35s !)

http://mod.mil.iq/news/2014/9/27/254.html …

[OUTLAW 09]

It seems Russia is being agitated again by the US as they attempt to maintain Assad as an client state for their naval porting rights in the Med.

Noticed the Russians did not back up their threats against the US as a blatant act of aggression for bombing Syria without "asking Russia and Syria". After all their hype of the word "aggression" in the global media not even a whimper out of Russia..

Now with a no fly zone being talked about against the SAF in the north--not so sure Assad is "winning" with US support.

BREAKING: US informs #Syria it will strike #ISIS for 3 years – Syrian FM http://on.rt.com/m2cn0k
pic.twitter.com/ywj9rml6YV

[Dayuhan]

Interesting look at the threats and opportunities ISIS presents for the Kurds...

http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/20...29/fight-lives

Key paragraph:

Obama has spoken carefully in public, but it is plain that the Administration wants the Kurds to do two potentially incompatible things. The first is to serve as a crucial ally in the campaign to destroy ISIS, with all the military funding and equipment that such a role entails. The second is to resist seceding from the Iraqi state. Around Washington, the understanding is clear: if the long-sought country of Kurdistan becomes real, America’s twelve-year project of nation building in Iraq will be sundered. Kurdish leaders acknowledge that the emergence of ISIS and the implosion of Syria are changing the region in unpredictable ways. But the Kurds’ history with the state of Iraq is one of persistent enmity and bloodshed, and they see little benefit in joining up with their old antagonists. “Iraq exists only in the minds of people in the White House,” Masrour Barzani, the Kurdish intelligence chief and Masoud’s son, told me. “We need our own laws, our own rules, our own country, and we are going to get them.”

[OUTLAW 09]

Merging of various Shia militant groupings:

There's now a greater merger&mutualisation of resources am/ Iraqi groups. #Katiba_Hezbollah, #Imam_Ali
pic.twitter.com/4h89BWnin2

#Iraq #Sarya_al_Khorasani 107mm #IRAM factory near Baghdad - most Iraqi groups name it #Ashtar
NOTE: definitely improved versions of what they fired at US troops.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2o6NPgTyhgA …

Reports emerging of another [big] FSA-YPG agreement being signed to combat ISIS across all Kurdish regions of northern #Syria.

[JWing]

My latest article covering the fall of Camp Saqlawiya in Anbar. Was the biggest military disaster since fall of Tikrit back in June. Leadership of Iraqi forces didn't seem to care that base was surrounded and under siege for five days. Showed that insurgents still able to mass forces and take military target despite increasing western airpower. Also shows that IS still holds initiative in parts of the country. Here's a link.

[JWing]

Forgot to mention that I was interviewed for the Middle East Week Podcast about the political and security situation in Iraq. Here's a link.

[JWing]

Dayuhan

When Mosul fell the Kurds were actually celebrating. They were able to seize Kirkuk and other disputed areas. They were talking about a referendum for independence, about how IS was a better neighbor than Baghdad, etc. The press was full of reports about how Kurdistan was going to benefit from the IS surge and how it was going to be considered the stable part of Iraq and this would all help with its oil industry and move towards independence. That was all BS to me. IS turned their attention north and east when the drive to Baghdad was blocked and took Jalawla in Diyala and Sinjar in Ninewa and threatened the Kurdish capital of Irbil. The peshmerga ended up abandoning both areas with little to no fight. Most of the oil companies pulled out their staff as well.

Kurdistan is going to get independence one day but it's not going to be anytime soon. It depends upon Baghdad for around 90% of its money, and its oil industry hasn't seen the growth in exports that it was hoping for. Until those two issues are resolved it will remain part of Iraq despite the announcements every couple months about it leaving and all the press reports about how great its petroleum industry is doing.

[OUTLAW 09]

http://www.thedailybeast.com/article...source=twitter

seems like we almost bombed our own allies

[OUTLAW 09]

And we get no help from the Iraqi AF.

NBC reports Iraqi air force mistakingly dropped food, water and ammunition to #ISIS militants. Great intelligence

[JWing]

My latest security report for the month of September. Attacks have been going down since August as summer offensive has turned into stalemate in many provinces. Casualties remained extremely high however due to IS massacres in northern Iraq and the fall of Camp Saqlawiya in Anbar where 300 soldiers were killed. Here's a link.

[CrowBat]

http://www.thedailybeast.com/article...source=twitter

seems like we almost bombed our own allies

We're discussing this 'campaign' (total of 66 USAF/USN and 23 strikes by all of the RJAF, RSAF, UARAF, RBAF and QEAF in one week!) in the 'air power...' thread, and it's nothing but a tragicomedy.

Perhaps I should send my wife to help CENTCOM with targeting?

She definitely knows more about Syria and all the factions involved in fighting there...

And we get no help from the Iraqi AF.

NBC reports Iraqi air force mistakingly dropped food, water and ammunition to #ISIS militants. Great intelligence

They flew 2.160 combat sorties the last month: if USAF can make as grotesque mistakes as described on the link above, then Iraqis can do some too.

[OUTLAW 09]

Has anyone seen the SAA use the UR-77 Meteorit before---when and who supplied it?

https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=810536442324623

[davidbfpo]

Civil wars are never clear cut, in Europe Bosnia is a good example and Syria today is exceptionally confusing - on both "sides". Linked here is an analysis of the jigsaw of groups fighting each other and then changing tack:http://www.joshualandis.com/blog/pro...jr-al-hurriya/