Quote Originally Posted by JWing View Post
David

IS appears to be following almost the exact same plan that Zarqawi had of surrounding Baghdad in the belts and then launching direct attacks upon the capital with street fights, etc. They have been very successful in doing this so far especially in the west and south. This is only going to work so far however as Baghdad is overwhelmingly Shiite after the sectarian cleansing that happened after the last civil war. IS is probably already building up its networks in Sunni neighborhoods, but when they start making more direct assaults I expect a repeat of that last civil war which is Shiites cleansing the capital. That's already happening in parts of Babil, Salahaddin and Diyala right now. It's only going to get worse.
If the Shia purge the remaining Sunnis in Baghdad it seems that would serve as a recruiting tool for the IS (even beyond Iraq)? Also, aren't we ultimately talking about a potential hybrid assault on Baghdad? Zarqawi had to rely on terrorist tactics that promoted civil conflict amongst militias that were principally armed with small arms, but IS now has tanks, artillery, etc., so do you anticipate a different kind of fight, and do you think the Iraqi army has the stomach to hold Baghdad?