Ukraine: military (Aug '14 to mid-June '15) closed

[OUTLAW 09]

Now even NATO is sensing a big push by Russian troops and their mercenaries--probably tied to the 14 Oct RADA vote on ditching the Ukrainian non aligned status.

Conflict Reporter @Conflict_Report
#BRK @NATO Dep. Sec. Gen. A. Vershbow: "There may be a serious deterioration of the situation [in eastern #Ukraine] in the coming days." ...

The crisis in the Middle East has overshadowed, at least for now, the situation in Ukraine, There is a fragile ceasefire is in place but the violence still continues on a lower level. Could the Ukraine crisis turn into a frozen conflict?

I think that's a serious danger right now, and I think that is what Russia is trying to do in eastern Ukraine. From our perspective at NATO, and I think this goes even beyond NATO to the EU, we are all insisting that Russia live up to every aspect of the Minsk agreement and not allow it to be implemented selectively. The ceasefire was supposed to freeze the conflict in place of positions since September 19. But of course the separatists with continuous Russian military support that is flowing across the uncontrolled international border have been escalating their attacks on the Donetsk airport.

That is unacceptable. We need to see full implementation which includes Ukrainians getting the ability to control their own international border. Russia needs to make clear to the separatists that it does not support the elections that they are purporting to hold on November 9, which would have no legitimacy and are inconsistent with the Minsk protocol. It's a very fluid situation. The ceasefire is not holding in some areas and there could be a serious deterioration in the coming days.

[OUTLAW 09]

Interesting development from Putin--

1. is it a smokescreen in order to get his stock market and Rubel under control
2. is it a smokescreen because he is running out of money from oil sales
3. is it a smokescreen because he wants his French carrier
4. is it a smokescreen because actually his new UW military strategy failed because of moves by the Ukrainians to counter it militarily

OR is it exactly as this blog indicate--only temporary in order to gain time because he can move back in any time he wants to?

BUT notice not a single word was wasted on bringing out the Russian troops still inside the Ukraine.

Of course, one should never underestimate Putin's strategic thinking. May actually pullback troops (temporarily) to buy 'goodwill' & time.

No one should be getting excited or feeling optimistic about the news that Putin ordered troops home from "exercises in Rostov region."

BUT THEN is still going on--so really is it simply a smokescreen after all?

Please don't forget that Russia is still attacking Donetsk airport on a daily basis.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-1...e-not-met.html …
pic.twitter.com/PzUpF1q6x6

Sadly, barely a mention in the media that Putin is now moving Nuclear weaponry into Crimea.

[OUTLAW 09]

ss again if one judges Russian actions by their own words--Putin orders troops back to their bases but basically ignores these inside the Ukraine.

AND then yesterday Russian places roadblocks in the way of the very OSCE they pushed to monitor the "ceasefire".

Russia May Block Use of Drones To Monitor Ceasefire

17:47 (GMT)

Literally every day since the ceasefire was negotiated over one month ago it has been broken by Russian-backed separatists. The whole world is watching, and doing little to nothing, as the international airport in Donetsk, which has always been under the Ukrainian government's control, is attacked every day by Russian-backed militants. The Interpreter has documented many instances of separatist attacks killing civilians. The surrounded Ukrainian troops have desperately fired back. This week, evidence suggests that both Ukrainian and separatist rockets killed civilians in part of Donetsk.

Ukrainian President Poroshenko also warned that without a significant ramp-up of OSCE monitors, there was no way that the ceasefire could be properly monitored by the international community. According to Poroshenko, there are currently 270 OSCE monitors, only 90 of which are in eastern Ukraine, and there would have to be at least 1,500 to properly ensure all sides were complying with the ceasefire agreement. Meanwhile U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs Victoria Nuland said that the ceasefire was being broken, and as long as that was the case the monitoring mission could not even occur, a statement that lives in the kind of diplomatic paradox which we have come to expect by watching this crisis unfold.

Germany and France have pledged to use drones to help monitor the ceasefire, but even those plans face substantial resistance from Russia. The Wall Street Journal reports:

German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier said on Friday that his government had submitted a proposal a day earlier that would allow for two drones to be in the air at all times to observe the truce between Ukrainian forces and pro-Russia rebels.

But it was unclear whether the plan was viable, Mr. Steinmeier said, since both Berlin and Paris also want to send armed personnel to provide security for the teams operating the drones—a deployment that could prompt objections from Moscow and faces a possible legislative hurdle in Kiev. (More: Russian Rock Stars Run Afoul of Kremlin Over Ukraine)

“I don’t want to hide the fact that political and legal questions must still be resolved,” Mr. Steinmeier said.

This is the situation in which Ukraine has been stuck for the last month and a half. With conflicts raging in the Middle East, with ebola outbreaks in West Africa and, on occasion, elsewhere, and with American mid-term election season in full swing, the harsh reality of Ukraine is simply not catching the attention of Western people, Western media, or, as a result, Western leaders.

[OUTLAW 09]

Appears that the Russian announcement to pull back troops to their home bases was actually a "smokescreen".

Here is the more honest reason.

Putin orders 17,600 troops "on training" in Rostov region nr Ukraine border to pullback, return to base. Why? October conscription rotation!

What is more interesting are the "contract Russian troops" since their "contracts expire mid November " and winter is coming.

There are some that are saying Putin is lulling the western media and leadership as the units are being swapped out have been scheduled for "winter training"--wonder where?

October is conscription cohort demob and replenish time. Expect 17.000 fresh troops back in Rostov for winter training

[OUTLAW 09]

For those here are SWJ that have "doubted" that Russian troops were in the Ukraine before say late July.

Brave Ukrainian detects and follows a Russian invasion army T-64 in #Luhansk city in June 14.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rw5Sni6FtkY …

pic.twitter.com/m3W77jty21

[OUTLAW 09]

It seems the only one holding to the "ceasefire period of silence" are the Ukrainians--certainly not the Russian mercenaries.

So for all of the Russian press releases and the DPR releases the last two days while Putin was at the CIS conference that they were going to hold to the "ceasefire" --again nothing more than "smokescreens" trying to lull western media into thinking things are going well with Minsk 1 and 2.

#BreakingFootage Russian invaders fired a heavy MLRS salvoe vs- #Donetks #airport 10 minutes ago.
pic.twitter.com/1ni1ZmLToE

#Luhansk residential areas shelled despite of ceasfire. Over & over! Oct12 ,2014
http://youtu.be/tLa5cxoNq8c

Heavy artillery fire can be heard on the #Donetsk live stream. Large explosions every few seconds.

[OUTLAW 09]

Since approx. six weeks--the Russian Army has been sending in ever increasing numbers of complete SF and GRU BNs from the elite of their elite SF units--that indicates a major shift in their thinking.

Phase Six of the new Russian military UW strategy--New Generation Warfare:

Sixth Phase: commencement of military action, immediately preceded by large-scale reconnaissance
and subversive missions. All types, forms, methods, and forces, including special
operations forces, space, radio, radio engineering, electronic, diplomatic, and secret service
intelligence, and industrial espionage.

That does not indicate a backing off by Putin---more like a doubling down.

#Komaxidze: #Russian army 45th SOF regiment, unit #28337 in #Rostov oblast @ #Ukraine border.
https://www.facebook.com/irakli.koma...73220996124483 …

BREAKING #Russian army professional SOF units in #Luhansk has been disguised as ГБР "Бэтмэн" & ДШРГ "РУСИЧ".

pic.twitter.com/IOnxbBsb1e

ДШРГ stands for Диверсионно-Штурмовая Развед Группа (Subversion-Assault Reconnaissance Unit). Sounds like an Oldsmobile for a Trabant.

So if #Russia sends its #MIA #SOF #GROM to #Luahnsk airport & names into unpronounceable jabber then it's LEGIT!
pic.twitter.com/Xbkp9JmJ4N

#Ukraine army An-2 planes on #Luhansk air filed photographed by #Russian #FSB #SOF #GROM unit soldiers.

BREAKING #Russian #FSB #SOF #GROM unit soldiers in #Luhansk disguised as GBR "Batman" showcasing assets.

BREAKING More #Russian #FSB #SOF unit #GROM soldiers reported on Oct 1 in #Ukraine. Honouring the #Minsk protocols?

1st picture of Timur Gromov fr #Russian #FSB SOF unit #GROM on Oct 9 in #Ukraine. Lost Ivan.
http://lostivan.com/ivan/151

BREAKING Tonight 2 #FSB opers in #Donetsk got lost. Credible news coming the other terro unit send regards to RF FSB.