Thanks for your post, Firn.

We've seen posts all week heralding a return to cheaper oil, mocking peak oil concerns, etc. But many people seem unaware of the fact that conventional oil has peaked and that the increased production that we've enjoyed for the last 8 years has come almost entirely from two North American sources: US tight oil and Canadian bitumen.
Both sources are very expensive, as your graph illustrates, and will be scaled back if they face sustained unprofitable prices.

Yesterday Ron Patterson posted an examination of ND oil production by county. The degree to which ND's production depends on the sweet spots in two counties is quite remarkable: McKenzie and Mountrail produce about 60% (around 666,000 bpd) of ND's oil:
http://peakoilbarrel.com/bakken-oil-production-county/

Meanwhile, EIA continues to forecast a peak in US tight oil (and therefore US overall production) within the next few years.

This thread has been running for over 5 years, during which time we've seen several ups and downs re. oil & gas. Five years from now I expect that the prevailing view will be that concerns over long-term global oil supply (and climate change, the flip side of the energy coin) were well-founded.