Pakistani internal security (catch all)

[carl]

Omar:

I have two questions about your 3quarks piece.

First, where do the rank and file stand in dealing with the problems that are coming? Will they go along with their commanders or will they object to finally destroying the Jihadis?

Second, do you think another Mumbai will be tried in the midst of all that is to come?

[omarali50]

1. I dont think any unit would refuse to fight. That has NEVER been an issue. This army (especially at the lower levels) is still a descendant of the British Indian army, with many of its strengths and weaknesses. That means soldiers are heavily recruited from "martial areas", and they are the sort of people who will do their duty as long as they are treated honorably and paid on time. The ideology of Jihad motivates them (thats a change from British times) against India and is one reason the army finds it easy to just pretend these taliban are Indian agents too. But even if that is out of the equation, they will do their duty. Individuals with Jihadi sympathies may be spying for the enemy and there may be some extremely extremely rare event where some fifth columnist cooperates with them in an attack, but on the whole, the army will fight who they are told to fight. A lot of the "Pakistanis love jihad so please pay us an extra ten billion to fool them" is just the leadership using Jihadis as a convenient excuse to get more cash out of uncle Sam. I am not saying there isnt a real reservior of support for jihadis in the general population, but its my impression its actually likely to be LESS in the army (using Jihad as motivator against India is a separate line item entirely). Army discipline is intact. Soldiers will fight because that is what the orders are and they obey orders..and in many cases, that is a longstanding (and honorable) tradition in their villages (though the martial race thing has been diluted, its not dead).
Does that make sense?
2. I doubt there will be a Mumbai unless the army wants one. That level of preparation and support is not something anyone can do without the secret agencies being helpful, or at least making sure they look away. Smaller acts of terrorism, sure, that can happen. But that was such a well planned, rehearsed, prepared, monitored and guided operation. That cannnot happen without connivance or at least determined "looking the other way".

[carl]

Thank you Omar.

What you say about the army and the soldiers makes perfect sense.

That is what I am concerned about, that the army will want another Mumbai in order to create external trouble when they figure they need it. And that may be if things get out of hand and they want to distract people from that. I don't suppose though there is any way to predict that. It would depend to much on the situation and individuals who were dominant at the time perhaps.

[omarali50]

My latest piece about Shia-killing in Pakistan

http://www.3quarksdaily.com/3quarksd...-pakistan.html

[carl]

My latest piece about Shia-killing in Pakistan

http://www.3quarksdaily.com/3quarksd...-pakistan.html

Omar, I never thought it through like that. It's chilling. Especially since they won't change course. They are on the verge of winning a great victory and they won't give up the tool they used to achieve that.

So Pakistan is in very deep trouble. For several years I have thought that the only chance the country of Pakistan had was if we beat the Pak Army/ISI in Afghanistan thereby discrediting them. We didn't choose to fight so there was no chance we would defeat them. The Quds Force won't be so diffident.

[davidbfpo]

This short WoTR piece looks interesting, the opening passage may give a clue why:

When it comes to Pakistan’s bad guys, leaders of the country’s major militant groups—such as Hafiz Saeed of Lashkar-e-Taiba and Mullah Fazlullah of the Pakistani Taliban—tend to hog the headlines. Many more are less well known—yet still highly consequential. Five in particular are worth singling out—not just because they threaten stability, but because they foreshadow Pakistani militancy’s future trajectory.


The evolution of this trajectory will likely feature five distinct trends: Uncompromisingly violent anti-state militant factions constraining Pakistani government peace efforts; associations with a resilient al-Qaeda that remains fixated on both local and global targets; a re-emergence of India-focused militancy; sectarian extremists with strong political influence and associations with the state attempting to earn legitimacy from an increasingly radicalized society; and state assets violently turning on their patrons at a time when the Pakistani security establishment can ill afford new sources of unrest. The five men described below each exemplify one of these trends

Link:http://warontherocks.com/2014/05/fiv...-attention-to/

[davidbfpo]

Not seen anything before about this development and very notably who is reported as a staunch supporter:

Punjab's chief minister, Shahbaz Sharif, who is also the prime minister's brother, is serious about the forensics project. He has invested heavily. The lab, funded without federal or international grants, had an initial cost of $25 million and its expenses total $7 million a year.

He is aware that the police may not "be on message":

We now have to change habits....The police need to still learn to understand its great advantages. They are used to, unfortunately, in some cases, conniving with the culprits. They don't send samples over here unless they feel they are being watched and monitored.

Link:http://www.nationaljournal.com/defen...orist-20140514

[davidbfpo]

I nearly missed this:

Pakistan's military said it had ordered thousands of ground troops into its most restive region on Sunday evening, launching its long-awaited ground offensive to clear North Waziristan of terrorist bases. The operation is named Zarb-e-Azb after one of the Prophet Mohammed's swords.

Link:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...militants.html

[omarali50]

I think it is important to keep this in perspective:

1. The army has finally realized (or finally feels confident of doing what it realized a while ago) that the bad Taliban are simply intolerable and must be eliminated. They have been beheading soldiers and playing football with their heads for ages, so this realization is not exactly a stroke of genius. But, better late than never.
2. There will be no operation (yet) against their front organizations and fellow travelers (JUI-S, Jamat e Islami, right wing of the PTI, etc). There is also no sign of any decisive action against the Lashkar e Jhangvi (the anti-Shia killing machine). And of course, the good Taliban and good Jihadists are all on our good side at this time.
3. ALL of the above will eventually have to be tackled.
4. Even small numbers of determined terrorists can maintain a terror campaign for years.
So this is a beginning, not an ending. Maybe not even the "end of the beginning" yet...

[omarali50]

an old post about what liberals should do now
http://www.outlookindia.com/blogs/de...dm=10&pid=3142

[Ray]

Who are the Uzbeks launching terror strikes in Pakistan
The Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) militants are lethal, ruthless and faceless and physically fitter than the TTP militants. The officials, who examined the bodies of the 10 terrorists killed in Karachi Airport Old Terminal Attack, indicated that appeared Uzbeks and Chechens. On Sunday night of June 8, the target of these militants was the Old Terminal of Karachi Airport. An important member of the ground combat team told The News that siege lasted more than four hours.....

According to the Inter-Services Public Relations, air strikes on terrorists’ hideouts in North Waziristan Agency killed 60 hardcore terrorists including some important commanders and foreigners.

This was not the first time that IMU carried out attack in Pakistan.
http://www.thenews.com.pk/Todays-New...es-in-Pakistan

It appears that terrorists of all nationalities are finding safe havens in Pakistan and wreaking havoc by biting the hand that feeds!

[davidbfpo]

Ray,

I would agree with you - in part that:

the 10 terrorists killed in Karachi Airport Old Terminal Attack, indicated that appeared Uzbeks and Chechens.....It appears that terrorists of all nationalities are finding safe havens in Pakistan and wreaking havoc by biting the hand that feeds!

The Pakistani state for a long time, certainly since 2005, have repeatedly described the "offside" hostile militants as 'foreign militants' - as if there was a clear line within the hostile militants. For that reason I am wary that all the Karachi dead are Uzbeks. There maybe some advantage in stating such attacks are carried out by capable foreigners, so impugning those who are home-grown. Finally the Uzbeks have been in Pakistan for sometime, since 9/11 and IIRC date back to the Soviet era in Afghanistan.

[Ray]

Ray,

I would agree with you - in part that:

The Pakistani state for a long time, certainly since 2005, have repeatedly described the "offside" hostile militants as 'foreign militants' - as if there was a clear line within the hostile militants. For that reason I am wary that all the Karachi dead are Uzbeks. There maybe some advantage in stating such attacks are carried out by capable foreigners, so impugning those who are home-grown. Finally the Uzbeks have been in Pakistan for sometime, since 9/11 and IIRC date back to the Soviet era in Afghanistan.

My point is that why is Pakistan allowing its image to be sullied by allowing all and sundry who have nothing to do with Pakistan running a riot?

Am I to understand that ummah is greater than nationhood?

If Pakistan cares about being a nation, shouldn't they throw them out and saying 'thank you', they having gone way past their expiry date as far as the jihad to throw the Soviets out?

I take it throwing out of the Soviets was not a Pakistani action alone, but an Islamic action.

[davidbfpo]

Christine Fair in a sharp commentary on WoTR on Pakistan's offensive into North Waziristan, which ends with:

There is no likelihood that the Pakistan army will decide to shut down its support to the menagerie of Islamist militants operating in and from Pakistan. Therefore it’s difficult to not conclude that many innocent Pashtuns will die, lose their property, and remain in camps for internally displaced persons so that the Pakistan army can—once again—fool its citizenry and the international community all the while continuing to play the double game that it plays so well. Yes. We’ve seen this show before. And it never has a satisfying ending.

Link:http://warontherocks.com/2014/07/the...isappointment/

[davidbfpo]

A rare article on policing in pakistan, this time with NWFP as the focus. Yes there is an element of "spin", but the figures used are rarely seen IMHO:http://www.thefridaytimes.com/tft/law-and-order/

First human losses for the NWFP police (not other agencies):

...crime and terrorism has claiemd the lives of 1,015 police officials and wounded some 2,000....since 2006...

Terrorism - good work:

..between July 2013 and June 2014 arrested 260 suspected terrorists...secured convictions for 109...seventy seven terror suspects were killed in police encounters.

[davidbfpo]

A former Pakistani police officer responds to changes afoot in Pakistan, with a new law of counter-terrorism. He starts with:

A nation at war certainly requires all the necessary tools for protection against insurrection and prevention of acts threatening its security. Viewed in this context, the Protection of Pakistan Act (PPA), passed by the National Assembly and the Senate, amounts to a declaration of war against militants across the country over the next two years. However, the elected representatives have gone too far to accommodate the needs and desires of the security agencies battling the militants. While some safeguards have been put in place, certain aspects nevertheless raise concerns.

(He ends) In the long term, it is the rule of law, good governance and socio-economic justice that will defeat the militants.

Link:http://www.dawn.com/news/1124713/waging-war?

[davidbfpo]

Readers of this thread will recall my use of 'Stop, Go and now is it GO?' or similar. The following report suggests that some jihadists may have adopted 'Stop, selective Go and be nice'.

One of Pakistan's most deadly Taliban groups (The Punjabi Taliban) has abandoned its armed struggle and announced it will focus on a peaceful campaign calling on the country to adopt Islamic sharia law.

The Punjabi Taliban is believed to have carried out a number of significant terrorist attacks, including the 2009 assault on the Pakistan army's general headquarters in Rawalpindi, in which nine soldiers were killed; the commando raid on the Sri Lankan cricket team in the same year, and the 2011 attack on the naval airbase at Mehran in which 18 servicemen and two US-donated aircraft were destroyed.

.. the organisation would now limit its use of force to "infidel forces" and would focus on promoting sharia law....would continue to operate in Afghanistan but would focus on "Dawat Tablig" preaching and called on other Taliban factions to abandon their insurgencies in Pakistan.

Link:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...-Pakistan.html

I am sure the causes of this apparent change are many. Including the tradition of temporary compromises on both sides, with ceasefires, compensation, prisoner releases and the like. Now do we see the "hand" of ISI here?

[omarali50]

Asmatullah Muavia is the guy who claimed responsibility on behalf of his faction of the Taliban for the slaughter of foreign climbers at a Nanga Parbat base camp. I wonder if that crime can now be forgiven in exchange for future good behavior east of the Durand line? (lower level jihadis involved in the massacre are said to be in custody...whether serious custody or not is hard to say).


See my article on that atrocity here:
http://www.outlookindia.com/blogs/po...ssacre/2996/38

and more detail here:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2013_Na...urist_shooting

[davidbfpo]

An article from Kings War Studies other blog Strife, by a PhD student Zoha Waseem: 'The arrival of IS in Pakistan and the politics of the caliphate':http://strifeblog.org/2014/09/26/the...the-caliphate/

She draws together a variety of sources and her own knowledge. As if Pakistan didn't have enough problems already, along come the well-funded IS trying to make an impact.

[davidbfpo]

A welcome BBC article, which opens with:

The sacking of Pakistani Taliban (TTP) spokesman Shahidullah Shahid for supporting Islamic State is the latest sign of divisions in an already fragmented militant movement. Over the years Pakistan's insurgents have spawned a bewildering array of splinter groups and factions, reports M Ilyas Khan.

Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-29724771