As this thread moves between the local and regional, if not far wider here are two articles on the regional aspects, both via the Open Democracy blogsite.

One, The geostrategic consequences of the Arab Springstarts with a summary:
The Arab awakening is creating a new socio-political and economic reality in the region, transforming the balance of power, not because states have become stronger, but rather because states have become weak and fragile.
It concludes:
There are three fundamental geostrategic implications shaping the future of the balance of power in the Middle East. The first geostrategic consequence of the Arab Spring is the appearance of people as the main catalyst for these nations' internal dynamics.

The second geostrategic consequence is the proliferation of weak states. First, the monopoly of force has been questioned and weakened in several Arab countries, with increasing violence at sub-state level.

The third consequence is the densification of geopolitical disputes crystallized in latent conflicts. The implications will have a great impact on the relations and power structure in the Middle East.
Link:https://www.opendemocracy.net/arab-a...of-arab-spring

Second an article by Professor Paul Rogers, which in summary argues:
Behind the flux of conflict on the ground in Syria-Iraq, all sides are digging in for a long war.
Link:https://www.opendemocracy.net/paul-r...-its-far-enemy