What & Who discovers terrorist plots?

[davidbfpo]

The retiring head of UK police CT has made some remarks:

(Direct quote)There are some very dangerous and very committed individuals out there that have got deadly terrorist intent, and if people really don't start coming forward and reporting that activity, especially that lower level stuff where they're looking to do something without the wider command and control, then there's a real strong possibility that we're going to get more attacks and there's going to be more fatalities. In all those instances, if the people that had known about it, if they had come to us and given us that information, we would have been able to do something a lot sooner and the country would be a much safer place.

Link:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/ukne...ief-warns.html

[davidbfpo]

An interesting CBC article 'Who are the most wanted extremists in Canada?' using open source material, then wonders why Canada does not have a public 'Wanted' website unlike those in the USA, notably the FBI's:http://www.cbc.ca/m/news/canada/who-...nada-1.2845186

Within are two useful quotes for this thread's theme. First by a Canadian Muslim who became an informant on a terror plot:

They are missing public input...In this particular context it’s not going to be a police agent at a border point that’s going to pick the individual up. It’s going to be somebody who says ‘Hey, I know that guy.’ That’s how the information is going to come. I think there is a stronger case for making the information public.

Then a former FBI agent with a JTTF:

For any law enforcement organization your best asset at your disposal is the general public... Whether it’s an anonymous lead or somebody seeing a wanted poster and possibly motivated by the reward money - it’s to elicit help from the general public.

[davidbfpo]

A rare pointer to an accurate citizen part in discovering a plot; it is within an article on a new CT campaign in the UK, specifically trains:http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2...rrorist-attack

Launching the campaign, the chief constable of British transport police (BTP), Paul Crowther, said: earlier this month a man was sentenced for terrorism offences after being caught in possession of information about how to make bombs. “This was as a direct result of a rail passenger reporting suspicions to train staff".

I shall try and identify the case involved. Alas this failed, which I found odd - including asking an ex-BTP senior officer.

[davidbfpo]

The headline this week in The Guardian, after a terrorism trial where two young men from Birmingham pleaded guilty - anticipating a minimal two years sentence - and got twelve years:http://www.theguardian.com/world/201...P=share_btn_tw

One family had reported their son's departure for Syria, to the police and to say the least she is unhappy:

This is not justice. They said I was doing the right thing, that when my son came back they would try to help, but this terrible sentence – all they have done was to set me against my son.

The police say ‘mothers come forward’, you can trust us, we will help. But now they will see what happened to my son. What kind of person would go to the police if they think their son will get 12 years in prison? Nobody wants to do that. I did not want that.

He told me many times he wanted to come home....I wanted to go to Turkey, to go to the border and find him, bring him back. The British Foreign Office and the police said ‘you must not go’ but they then did nothing to get him home. They did nothing. My son is not a terrorist, he didn’t make bombs, he didn’t kill anyone, he tried to help. He did a stupid thing and when he realised this he wanted to come home.

The regional police CT leader:

This case typifies the challenges both police and families are facing when it comes to young people being influenced to join the conflict in Syria or Iraq.

These two men had no previous connections to extremist organisations and no police record. They were not known to us.....However, one of them was clearly being influenced by extremists he was talking to online, and he in turn was radicalising his friend. We had no choice but to arrest and charge the pair on their return.

An appeal has been lodged.

I expect the jihadists will be cheering this decision, it will reinforce the reluctance of families to volunteer information on their children being radicalised and travelling to Syria / Iraq.

A short, local BBC report also says this, plus the critical mother talking:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-30370272

[davidbfpo]

A Canadian article on what did the Paris magazine attack (Charlie Hebdo) suspect's neighbours did, what they knew and what they did not do - tell the authorities:

A neighbour in Gennevilliers told The Globe and Mail that she and her husband became so concerned about the behaviour of the Kouachi brothers – whom they could hear loudly reciting the Koran inside their apartment at all hours – that her husband and a friend decided to break in to the Kouachi residence when the brothers left to buy groceries. She said they found a “cache of arms” inside.She said they were caught when the brothers returned home, and that they shoved her husband around and threatened him into silence. That was two months ago.

.....'They attacked my husband and pushed him against the fridge and said, ‘Are you going to betray us to the police?’

The answer was no, which partly speaks to the fear the Kouachis obviously instilled in their neighbours, as well as the chasm in understanding between French police and the Muslims who live in the banlieues of Paris.

Link:http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/...ticle22372220/

(Added 14th Jan. The cited 'cache of arms' is very general and there are now reports some of the weapons, the automatic rifles and rocket launcher were purchased in Belguim in early December 2014. See:http://www.haaretz.com/news/world/1.637034? )

[davidbfpo]

Leaving aside the caveat "She would say that now, wouldn't anyone" this report illustrates one of the issues with expecting and seeking help from families and people about terrorist attacks. The headline:

Charlie Hebdo gunman’s wife had no idea he was extremist, lawyer says Saïd Kouachi reportedly kissed wife Soumya goodbye then told her he was going to Paris to see younger brother Chérif in Paris

Referring to the wife's lawyer explanation:

Hours before Kouachi and his younger brother Chérif stormed into the publication’s office in Paris, leaving 12 people, including two police officers, dead, the gunman kissed his wife, Soumya, goodbye and left their home in the Croix-Rouge area of Reims.

She doesn’t understand at all. Today she feels that she lived a lie. She had a normal life with a normal man, who didn’t show any radical views at home. Even after hearing the information, even after the police arrived and she heard what happened she couldn’t believe it. “I asked her if his religious commitment had evolved and she said he practised Islam, he kept Ramadan, he prayed at the local prayer place, but he didn’t proselytise. At home he was someone normal

Link:http://www.theguardian.com/world/201...wife-extremist

[davidbfpo]

This remark by Sir Hugh Orde, ex-RUC Chief Constable and until recently spokesman for all UK senior police officers, was made in the context of a furore over how the police - facing 20% budget cuts - will respond to reports of house burglary:

I would add that if we step back from this task, it is inevitable that the essential confidence built up between police and citizen is eroded. This has far wider implications, if one looks for example at the current terrorist threat to this country, it is clear that it has shifted from dealing with highly organised organisations, such as the IRA, to highly disorganised individual actors who self-radicalise within our law-abiding and diverse communities with the intent of committing one atrocity, not some strategic objective.
The information and intelligence we desperately need to combat this will come from the very communities in which they are embedded.
If we lose their confidence by simply failing to protect them from crimes that are so personal, a vital link in the intelligence chain will be lost.

Link:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/ukne...the-scene.html

[davidbfpo]

An aspiring, if mentally ill British man trying to copy Andreas Breivik:

The family of a ginger terrorist who plotted to attack the Royal Family and put red-haired Prince Harry on the throne has been praised for alerting the police....Police had been alerted to his extremism by his half brother and mother found suspicious items, including chemicals, in his bedroom....
He was caught after his half-brother Kevin and came across receipts for chemicals in his bedroom.
He and mother Patricia then searched Colborne’s "extremely cluttered" bedroom and uncovered an assortment of chemicals, the books and other equipment and called the police.

Link:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/ukne...ng-police.html

[davidbfpo]

The setting for the two quotes on this theme is:

Commissioners and chief constables are kicking off up and down the country, from London’s Met to Liverpool, with unprecedented protest at the 25% of cuts they have suffered and worse to come in next week’s spending review. As France’s president, François Hollande, announces he is boosting its police force by 5,000, Britain is scaling back. Nationally, 17,000 police officers have gone, with another 22,000 to go this time: neighbourhood police no longer pound the streets in many areas.

Link:http://www.theguardian.com/commentis...ts-theresa-may

From the same article is an example from Bedfordshire, a small county north of London, although not a terrorist plot, maybe the prelude:

What worries them most is no longer patrolling neighbourhoods as they did, listening and earning local trust. In the past, a neighbourhood tip-off from a local Muslim led them to a machete-wielding convert from Jehovah’s Witnesses to Islamicism – building up these kind of contacts takes time they’re unlikely to have in the future.

Sir Bernard Hogan-Howe, the Metropolitan Police Commissioner, has carefully added the standard "form of words" post-Paris as doubts are being heard amongst Conservative MPs:

When people trust the polcie...they tell us stuff. They might tell us who is burgling...they might tell us when someone is becoming a terrorist, when someone is becoming more radical in their behaviour. We've got to have those links.

Link:http://www.standard.co.uk/news/polit...-a3116811.html

From the Soufan Group's briefing:

Given the virtual avalanche of threats, this is likely true; even more disruptions may remain undisclosed in order to protect sources and means. However, as international terrorism strikes out through local cells, the need for human sources is as vital as ever. Only human sources can assign proper context and priority to targeted extremists,

Link:http://soufangroup.com/tsg-intelbrie...-of-hindsight/

[davidbfpo]

A short article 'As an FBI agent, I know communities hold the key to fighting terrorism' and the thread title is his last phrase:http://www.theguardian.com/commentis...muslim-jihadi?

A key paragraph:

We believed trust is developed over time and if they viewed us as trying to keep them and their environment safe, then slowly they would cooperate. We are able to get cooperators and informants based on our soft approach. The people we did befriend and worked with on a consistent basis realised that we were concerned for the quality of their life and how we could make their conditions better, as opposed to using them for information only. The more of these intimate interactions occur, the more comfortable the community is going to feel.

[Bill Moore]

David,

I agree wholeheartedly with the comment below, what is shocking is that this appears to be recent discovery. Of course fear and the associated bias that comes with it can suppress commonsense out of existence. As I follow the U.S. news and BBC reporting on the Paris attacks in an attempt to discern the mood in the street, most reporting points to the people refusing to embrace hatred and condemn all Muslims for the acts of a few (but not as few as some would have us believe). Yet, I also think this is a form of media bias, and remain suspect there is a growing extreme right wing movement growing that will further exasperate the troubles. Strong leadership at all levels will be essential to quell the extreme rhetoric. While quieting the reactionary voices, strong leadership must demonstrate they're taking strong action and not ignoring the problem. It seems France is doing well on both accounts.

We believed trust is developed over time and if they viewed us as trying to keep them and their environment safe, then slowly they would cooperate. We are able to get cooperators and informants based on our soft approach. The people we did befriend and worked with on a consistent basis realised that we were concerned for the quality of their life and how we could make their conditions better, as opposed to using them for information only. The more of these intimate interactions occur, the more comfortable the community is going to feel.

[davidbfpo]

The Soufan Group's latest briefing ends with a passage that explains why the public will find it difficult to get information, let alone having the motivation to communicate this:

Terror cells composed of family members present tremendous challenges for intelligence and security agencies to infiltrate with human sources. Such tight-knit groups are loathe to bring in new people, since the trust is so tight among the existing members. The sense of loyalty stemming from familial or matrimonial bonds makes it less likely that one of the members would inform on the others; the betrayal of the group is made much worse by obligations to the family.

Link:http://soufangroup.com/tsg-intelbrie...ies-of-terror/

[Bill Moore]

The Soufan Group's latest briefing ends with a passage that explains why the public will find it difficult to get information, let alone having the motivation to communicate this:
Link:http://soufangroup.com/tsg-intelbrie...ies-of-terror/

Read and understand, but it also seems this would be an opportunity for investigators to find leads to other members of the group. Even if they didn't support, it seems direct and indirect surveillance of family members (the law permitting) would help uncover cells and their plots. What am I missing?

[davidbfpo]

Read and understand, but it also seems this would be an opportunity for investigators to find leads to other members of the group. Even if they didn't support, it seems direct and indirect surveillance of family members (the law permitting) would help uncover cells and their plots. What am I missing?

Bill,

It is the initial "finger of suspicion" or clue, indeed discovery that 'x' and 'y family' are possible suspects. The proverbial "needle in a haystack". Who do you surveill, given that "chatter", SIGINT and other sources fail to help.

[davidbfpo]

After each UK and I expect in the USA too questions are asked of law enforcement (and intelligence agencies) whether they knew of the attacker's intentions beforehand.

It now appears that the suspect in the recent knife attack @ Leytonstone Tube Station, in East London, may have been signalled on mental health grounds three weeks before to the police beforehand by his own family and the Met say without mention of him being radicalised:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/ukne...-in-court.html

A recent Soufan Group newsletter asks how can a CT network adjust fully to a silent two person attack i.e. San Bernardino:http://soufangroup.com/tsg-intelbrie...-threat-radar/

Perhaps we will learn one day how the mental health agencies responded to the likely referral; I note the Met gave advice to the family to make contact with them, but it not clear if such a referral was made.

[Majormarginal]

There is a weak and poorly funded mental health system in the States. People with good support systems and good health insurance cannot get proper care. If one is not affluent and/or cooperative care is dismal. When institutional programs for the mentally ill were closed the idea was to transition to community based care. This transition was never seriously funded, funding has been cut, any community care that worked withered and died. Community care can be as basic as having someone to remind and/or encourage people to obtain and take their meds. Chicago closed half of its public mental health clinics in 2012. Early in my career one of my duties was transporting mentally ill people to hospitals or state mental health facilities. I had many regular customers. Several times I took the same individual for care twice in one shift. The mentally ill were "freed" from institutional settings and they were abandoned. There is no way for the mental health system to aid in prevention of attacks.

As for lone or pairs of shooters there is nothing that can prevent them from acting if they keep quiet about their plan. Anders Breivik wrote about this in his manifesto.

[davidbfpo]

A slightly different report, maybe not a terrorist plot, but support activity whereby the accused encouraged support for ISIS. The headline:

Muslim doctor and sister help convict Isil supporters after confronting them

Link:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/ukne...ting-them.html

The doctor and sister are British nationals, of Iraqi origin and are Shia Muslim sisters - that IMHO provides enough motivation.

[davidbfpo]

A short article by Peter Bergen, to accompany a HBO documentary, 'Homegrown: the CT dilemma' broadcast last Monday, so behind a paywall:

A very telling indicator of future violence by a terrorist, FBI behavioral analysts have found, is what they term "leakage."..Leakage is, in short, when a violent perpetrator signals to people in his circle that he is planning an act of violence...In an ongoing study of some 80 terrorism cases in the States since 2009, which has not been previously reported, the FBI found that "leakage" happened more than 80% of the time...Strangers were the most likely to come forward.. rather than the 95% of the peers, family members and authority figures who generally had the most useful information about a militant.
(He concludes) The lesson of the FBI study of terrorism cases is that the most useful information comes from peers and family members. That's why community outreach to Muslim communities to enlist their help in detecting those who may be becoming militant is the most fruitful approach to dealing with the scourge of terrorism.

Link:http://edition.cnn.com/2016/02/03/op...eakage-bergen/

He does not cite the actual FBI report and a look on Google failed.

[davidbfpo]

From Walsall, a small city in the West Midlands and edited slightly:

...police only discovered the group after Rev Petty contacted the police after her son Jacob disappeared in the summer of 2014 and emailed his parents to say he was off to start a “new life” in Syria.

A senior West Midlands Police officer said:

The case here emerged from worried parents about their son who they reported missing. That was Jacob Petty. It turns out he had gone to Syria and joined Isis and from the inquiries we followed, it became a wider investigation and we were able to then open up these evidential routes into all of these people.

Link:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/ukne...upporters.html

Background on the network today, from two sources:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/ukne...-fanatics.html and the BBC:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-35653366

[davidbfpo]

It is rare to see such figures in public, even if they refer to allegations of state benefits fraud in the UK:

More than 85% of fraud allegations made by the public over the last five years were false, according to figures obtained by the Observer. A freedom of information request to the Department for Work and Pensions discloses that between 2010 and 2015 the government closed 1,041,219 alleged cases of benefit fraud put forward by the public. Insufficient or no evidence of fraud was discovered in 887,468 of these.

Link:http://www.theguardian.com/society/2...ud-allegations