...ah well, 'strategic' is really relative here.
Ma'arat an-Nauman is 'strategic': it's a historic place at the cross-road of seven different strategic routes, connecting (clockwise) Idlib, Aleppo, Hama (and thus Homs and Damascus) with ports like Lattakia and Banias...
Wadi ad-Dayf and Hamadania bases nearby have lost their relevance at latest in June-July this year, when the last regime offensive to relieve them run out of steam when the glorious 'SAA' thugs captured Moarek - and then got busy looting it.
The 700 or so surviving regime troops that have fled these two bases and are presently trying to punch through jihadists lines to reach Moarek, about 15km south, were mere victims of regime's insistence on 'holding out to the last bullet': Iranians... excuse me: IRGC-QF that is in charge of the 'Syrian military', have long since recommended a withdrawal.
Somebody sane could now go and try to tell the JAN idiots to stop slaughtering dozens of regime troops captured when they were left behind: this is only making the rest more eager to really resist to the last bullet....
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What is really 'strategic' here: three years of fighting by disunited insurgents, poorly and rather haphazardly supported by various powers from outside (lately the USA) have not managed what a better-supported JAN has managed now in only three weeks.
Yup gentlemen: just three weeks since the JAN has overrun the US/Saudi-supported SRF and took over all of its bases in the Idlib Province, forcing about 10,000 survivors (including their families) to flee to Turkey, the Jihadists are now on advance in this small pocket of Syria...
For orientation, see the map attached below - and keep in mind that the terrain in direction in which the surviving regime troops are fleeing is largely flat... Only 'cover' is that provided by the Ba'ath Party's... erm.... 'Syrian' and 'Arab' air force...
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Talking about 'poorly' or 'better' supported factors here: while insurgents of the IF are getting between 60 and 100 bucks a month, those of US-supported groups used to get 150 bucks a month - until November, when, following the collapse of the SRF, Obama cancelled all the aid provided to them....
In comparison, JAN Jihadists are cashing up to 500 bucks, those of the Daesh often much more...
Makes me wonder about several things: how comes the jihadists can get better paid than state-supported insurgents? Shouldn't somebody there within responsible circles simply get ashamed (especially considering the fact that persons in positions in question are usually very good at pocketing quite a lot of supposed 'aid')? And I have to question logic of certain people too, i.e. ask once again if being dumb in silliest fashion is meanwhile the ultimate qualification for people getting certain jobs in the DC and surrounding areas?
Namely, as explained so often before, simple maths is dictating the way of life in such poor countries like Syria: the side that pays more is more attractive too.
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But you know what's really 'strategic'?
A topic you all seem to have completely missed during my absence.
Namely, back in October certain Maj Gen Hossein Hamadani (ex C-in-C Basiji Corps IRGC) was appointed the new C-in-C IRGC-QF, and thus of the entire Syrian military.
And then he launched that offensive of his new military - the Basiji-like 'NDF', spear-headed by the Hezbollah and IRGC-troops - all the way around eastern Aleppo and to the north of the city.
The offensive in question went something like this: Hamedani first spent the Afghan Hazaris of the IRGC's Liwa al-Fatimum to capture Hindarat (town about 15km NE of Aleppo). These were nearly overrun and mauled in a counterattack by the IF and the Hazzm, but meanwhile Hamedani moved two brigades of Hezbollah around their flanks and punched further west. Meanwhile, his fourth brigade, the IRGC's Liwa al-Quds (primarily Palestinians) has turned south and is now approaching the Kurdish-held Sheikh Masqood district of northern Aleppo.
Few 'strategic BTWs' here...
- What's left of FSyA and IF insurgents in eastern Aleppo are about 500 metres short of getting encircled and put under a siege since yesterday. And that just at the start of the winter...
- Curiously, the eastern flank of Hamadani's offensive went all the way along the areas held by the Daesh. Do you think the supposed 'arch-/sworn enemy' of the regime moved a small finger and tried to spoil that offensive but at least some nuance attacks into its flank?
- ...as mentioned above, the JAN has meanwhile liquidated the most powerful moderate (and US-supported) insurgent group in that part of Syria (the SRF), and badly damaged the second most important such group (Harakat Hazzm)... causing up to 1,000 of combatants from these two, plus some other of allied groups to defect to the Daesh...
- ...and then the JAN withdrew its forces out of eastern Aleppo, and began ramming its head against well-entrenched and -supplied Shi'a enclaves of Nubol and az-Zahra (about 35km NW of Aleppo), apparently in hope of achieving some kind of major victory against 'infidels'...
Bottom line: thanks so much Obama, the moderate insurgency in northern Syria is next to destroyed.
The US logic seems to be to drive Syrians into the hands of Jihadists and/or beast of the Daesh - and then bomb them. Fantastic idea, really: I'm sure that all those convinced that 'all Syrians are terrorists, anyway', are feeling more than confirmed now...
...this is so absurd, I cannot imagine that either Assad, or Khamenei could ever dream about Obama doing them such a big favour!
Though, one should keep in mind one thing too: this is not only the end of moderate insurgents in northern Syria, but is really the start of turning that country into a better breading ground for extremists of all sorts than even Afghanistan ever was. And if anybody thinks doing things this way is going to solve the situation in a matter of even 2-3 years, the person in question needs to consult the nearest psychiatrist. At best right now.
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