Studies on radicalization & comments

[Bob's World]

So, just curious, what percentage of American colonists in support of revolution were "radicalized" by the words of Sam Adams and Thomas Paine; versus those who were radicalized by the actions of British governance and discrimination?

Was this man radicalized while he was in prison, or because of why he perceived he was in prison??

[Firn]

Was this man radicalized while he was in prison, or because of why he perceived he was in prison??

Perhaps we will never know but I'm pretty sure this is a question which gets asked in Western security services.

The Guardian has a short profile which as often asks more question then it gives answers.

Past the children’s play areas of the estate, Emilie Hansson, 26, who is half Swedish, said she knew El-Hussein and had seen him at the estate last week. She said: “For me he’s not a terrorist. He’s someone who felt finished with life and decided to go out with a big bang.” An 18-year-old at school nearby said he thought those who knew El-Hussein had been shocked he could have carried out the attacks.

He had certainly some of the more common traits of European citiziens going to Syria. Perhaps most importantly he was an unemployed young loser of Islamic faith with a certain ethnic and criminal background.

[davidbfpo]

Firn,

On Twitter there were several references to this man being involved a random act of violence, possibly with a knife and he was released two weeks ago after serving an incredibly short jail sentence.

On my second reading The Guardian does refer to this:

where he was serving a two-year sentence for stabbing a 19-year-old man on Copenhagen’s inner-city train system. He had been released from prison only two weeks before the attacks in Copenhagen this weekend.

Wiki has this:

he only served one year out of his two year prison sentence

[Firn]

Without knowing the circumstances one year does seem indeed little, especially if his change in behaviour in prison brought him seemingly on the radar of the Danish security services. Lots of speculation of course.

An important aspect of the two recent attacks is in my humble opinion is the use of (illegal) automatic rifles. As I wrote before gun violence in Europe is very rare, especially the use of (semi)automatic rifles. In the US handguns dominate, on a considerable higher overall level, gun violence as well. Keep in mind that in many European countries access to semiautomatic rifles on military patterns is quite easy, for example in Italy. Objectively the majority of the population can buy such weapons with practically zero problems. This might surprise some, personally I 'found out' about that aspect only after the Sandy Hook Shooting. Keep in mind that I hunt, so maybe I should have known better.

So far I read little about the origin of the weapons as the security forces are clearly trying to map out their trails.

[Bob's World]

The greasegun is a super cheap .45 cal submachine gun developed by the US to arm revolutionary and resistance fighters with who's actions we thought would advance our interests. We did not radicalize those fighters, that had already been accomplished by the occupying powers and the illegitimate regimes established by those powers to support their agendas.

Point being, who gave this guy a weapon is interesting, but it doesn't have much to do with why he used it.

[davidbfpo]

The much-hyped White House CVE conference has led to many comments and one Tweet just saying it was a chaotic meeting!

Yassin Musharbash, a German-Jordanian, has a comment on an important aspect 'A few Thoughts on "Counter Narratives" and "Counter Messaging:

....radicalization can be the result of frustration over not having been able to achieve anything through political activism. But that's not the case, apparently. What we see instead is that many of those who end up waging war in Syria have been radicalized at a dramatic speed. As if there had been a vacuum that needed to be filled as quickly as possible.

In fact, I think this is actually what happens. Many of those who radicalize do it because the ideology of Jihadism offers them simple and all-encompassing answers to all their questions and problems - and it instills them with a deep sense of purpose and meaning, something most other ideas on offer seem to be failing at.

Link:http://abususu.blogspot.de/2015/02/a...arratives.html

The official WH public statement:http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-...lent-extremism

Clint Watts asks 'What should we expect? More of the same or a new direction to counter ISIS?' and he ends asking for a few simple tools:

... creativity, a credit card, and some film students.

Link:http://www.fpri.org/geopoliticus/201...7UfUE.linkedin

Two useful tables

[Bob's World]

The ideology has been there for 15 years, but now suddenly 20,000 pack up and go.

Is it so hard to accept that it is the mission that is the draw, and not the message?

I think Western egos can accept that so many have been brainwashed, but can't accept that so many see the Sunni-Shia competition for influence as so incredibly vital with clear eyes and mind.

We need to wake up and clear our own eyes and minds as to the nature of the problem.

[davidbfpo]

The ideology has been there for 15 years, but now suddenly 20,000 pack up and go.

Is it so hard to accept that it is the mission that is the draw, and not the message?

I think Western egos can accept that so many have been brainwashed, but can't accept that so many see the Sunni-Shia competition for influence as so incredibly vital with clear eyes and mind.

We need to wake up and clear our own eyes and minds as to the nature of the problem.

Bob,

The estimated 20,000 that have gone to Iraq / Syria to join the fighting and possibly many to Daesh (ISIS) should be compared to the flow of foreign fighters to Afghanistan in the Soviet era and to Bosnia-Herzogovina afterwards. I cannot now recall any reliable numbers.

A swift search found an article by Thomas Hegghammer. He estimated 5-20k in Afghanistan (1980-1992) and 1-2k in Bosnia (1992-1995). Another paper refers to 3-5k in Bosnia. See:http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/...n_Fighters.pdf

Personally I think many went in the early part of the Syrian civil war to defend fellow Muslims from a violent tyranny. Anecdote here is that the UK government's contradictory stance over Libya acted as a factor.

Is it the message that motivates the aspiring fighters to go, but after arrival it is the mission?

I have yet to read a study that estimates how many are with Daesh and non-Daesh groups.

[davidbfpo]

ICSR have provided an abbreviated version of Peter R. Neumann remarks at the CVE Summit:http://icsr.info/2015/02/icsr-insigh...-house-summit/

He highlights three issues, cited in part:

Parents are our strongest allies, they need to be helped and empowered.

The internet is the most powerful tool that ever existed for promoting ideas – good ideas and bad ideas. But right now, we’ve handed over that tool to the extremists.

There’s an uncomfortable truth for my European compatriots. However different the foreign fighters that my colleagues and I have found, what many, if not most of them, had in common is that they didn’t feel they had a stake in their societies. They sometimes felt that, because of who they are, how they look and where they come from, they weren’t part of us, that they’d never succeed.

[Bob's World]

We need to appreciate the powerful effect of the identity-based populations that every person has. If a person identifies with some issue or cause, they become a member of a distributed population who also identify with that same issue. Each person is a member of literally thousands of these populations, and has their own priority for how they value these identities relative to each other.

The most important identities are those a person is willing to kill or die for. If I identify as a Sunni and prioritize identity I would reasonably see joining ISIS as a way to help preserve and advance issues critical to that identity. If I return home to perceived discrimination by my nation because i am a member of that Sunni population i have an internal crisis i must resolve. I will reasonably come to value my Sunni identity over my national identity (as most religious people of any ilk do).

This isn't voodoo magic or mass brainwashing - it is just common sense and human nature. None of that validates acts of terrorism, but when legal and less drastic approaches are either denied or ineffective in addressing the perceived grievances, people of every culture historically will ultimately act out.

[davidbfpo]

Well The White House CVE summit has set off a host of comments, Peter Bergen's piece for CNN for example:http://edition.cnn.com/2015/02/19/op...ses/index.html

Indeed, New America has studied the backgrounds of some 250 U.S.-based militants since 9/11 who have been indicted in or convicted of some kind of jihadist terrorist crime. They are on average middle class, reasonably well-educated family men with kids. They are, in short, ordinary Americans....Post-9/11 research demonstrating that Islamist terrorism is mostly a pursuit of the middle class.

So if it's clearly not deprivation that is driving much Islamist terrorism, what is?

[Bob's World]

The US founders were not deprived either, but they burned at the disrespect levied against them their fellow British citizens who officially and in practice deemed Colonists inferior due merely for where they were born.

They came to not recognize the right of a distant King and his Governors the Colonists had no say in the selection of to govern them.

This is not about money or religion, this is a fundamental human nature response to injustice and disrespect. Everyone needs to stop looking for ways to fix those who are acting out against governance, and instead ask what it is about that governance that is so provocative to the identity-based populations they are emerging from.

[Bill Moore]

Well The White House CVE summit has set off a host of comments, Peter Bergen's piece for CNN for example:

David,

We have perpetuated this myth to the point it is widely perceived as fact. We have done this for terrorists and insurgents by cherry picking comments from selected detainees or interviews with others, while ignoring the overwhelming evidence that people for fight the reasons Bob points too.

When we deceive ourselves and develop strategies to counter so called radicalization we end up developing plans based on false assumptions.

Providing jobs may or may not be a humanitarian act (it has been demonstrated our aid programs in the past have stunted economic growth in some countries) we want to pursue, of course we seem to forget that people want jobs that provide personal satisfaction, not working for pennies a day developing a road we're paying for.

Economic development is important for a lot of reasons, but we need to stop confusing it with the sole reason people take up arms.

[davidbfpo]

Unusual report from the Lebanon:

Armed with their black veils, open ears and expertise in forensic psychology, two young Saudi-raised Lebanese sisters spend hours each week tapping deep into the lives and minds of terrorists of the Islamic State (IS), al-Qaeda and other groups imprisoned in Lebanon's notorious Roumieh prison.

Link:http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/orig...h-prison.html?

[davidbfpo]

A provocative article, which opens with:

More than thirteen years after the U.S. intelligence community named the prevention of terrorism its number one goal, it seems to have little understanding of what drives terrorism, or how to counter it. And, if the recently increasing criticism is correct, the government’s investment in academic terrorism research isn’t helping. It may be because the government is continuing to fund research supporting discredited theories of terrorist radicalization, rather than objective empirical analyses.

Link:http://justsecurity.org/21823/flawed...rism-policies/

This is not a problem confined to the USA.

The short podcast with Arun Kundani is worth listening to.

[davidbfpo]

This week the UN Security Council held an open session on radicalisation, amidst the official and academic speakers was Scott Atran, whose work has been cited on SWC before.

Link:http://www.huffingtonpost.com/scott-...b_7142604.html

[omarali50]

A new post about the :Myth of Radicalisation" (comment on article from Spike)

http://brownpundits.blogspot.com/201...alisation.html

[davidbfpo]

Earlier today I read a parallel article by Yahya Birt, a British Muslim convert, admittedly the catalyst being a recent, un-seen TV programme:https://yahyabirt1.wordpress.com/201...d-documentary/

Two passages:

Former extremists dramatize their personal stories to overshadow all of our community’s multifarious and untold human stories to feed a dominant meme of the post-9/11 world: namely, that this complex geopolitical crisis is really all about maladjusted Muslim men.

(Ends with) We all really need to step back and have a more honest and searching debate if we are to have any chance of getting purchase on the perplexing and frightening problem of ISIS’s current success and appeal.

[davidbfpo]

A provocative WoTR article by a former USG CVE SME:http://warontherocks.com/2015/07/cou.../?singlepage=1

In a CVE context, pushing back on terrorist narratives makes intuitive sense ― it’s a way of exposing falsehoods in a very public forum. But does it work? Research has shown that when you’re trying to convince people, facts don’t matter. We seem to understand this in domestic politics, but not in CVE. Appealing to an individual’s value system is the most effective way to change opinions and spur people to action. This is because humans have evolved to push “threatening information” away in favor of information that confirms their own beliefs. In this way, humans apply the same concept of “fight or flight” to the intake of information. And there are neuroscientific explanations as to how this happens: When humans feel stress or feel threatened, the blood flow in the brain moves away from the neocortex, the site of higher-order thinking, and toward the limbic system, the more automatic and primitive site of our thinking. The movement of blood flow in this situation renders humans physically less capable of thinking in more nuanced and complex terms, and this has further consequences. Conflict is more likely to ensue when individuals process ideas only in black and white.
So what does all this mean? Efforts to undertake mass counter-narrative initiatives don’t achieve their intended effect ― and might even work against us. Ad campaigns, online or otherwise, that attempt to dissuade individuals from traveling to join groups like the Islamic State by pointing out the realities on the ground are missing the mark by failing to appeal to each potential recruit’s value system and his or her own personal motivations. And any counter-narrative campaign attempting to dissuade potential recruits by ridiculing terrorist narratives is most certainly missing the mark because of the human tendency to internalize ridicule as a threat to their beliefs ― leading them to double down on or harden their beliefs.

See a similar themed SW Journal article:http://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art...orism-strategy

[davidbfpo]

The full title is: What we’ve learned about radicalisation since 7/7 bombings a decade ago, which comes via the emailing of newly published research from:http://www.radicalisationresearch.org

A leading article as per the title:http://www.radicalisationresearch.or...a-decade-ago/?

Plus podcasts and texts on other papers:http://www.radicalisationresearch.or...on-briefings/?