Russia calls in $1.16m Soviet-era debt from Nepal. Signs it's starting to hurt
http://www.minfin.ru/ru/press-center/?id_4=33101 …
Russia's insider traders know Putin's plans http://www.bloombergview.com/article...-putin-s-plans …
Russian consumption of meat dips for the first time in 10 years. http://slon.ru/fast/economics/potreb...-1219268.xhtml …
http://piie.com/publications/opeds/o...esearchID=2756Russia in Free Fall
by Anders Aslund, Peterson Institute for International Economics
Op-ed in Capital
February 25, 2015
Since November 2014, it has been obvious that the Russian economy would shrink sharply this year, and the January statistics indicate a serious decline has started. The Russian Ministry of Economic Development has forecast a decline of GDP of 3 percent this year, while the Central Bank of Russia predicts a decline of 4.5 to 5 percent at an oil price of $50 per barrel. These forecasts appear overly optimistic. An abrupt fall of 10 percent seems more likely, because key Russian indicators look worse than in 2009, when Russia's GDP contracted by 8 percent.
In July 2014, the United States and the European Union imposed serious financial sanctions on Russia. In parallel, the global oil price started falling and with it the ruble. As if these factors were not bad enough, the Kremlin is pursuing an economic policy that aggravates the decline.
It will be rather interesting to see how, how much and how quickly Russia continues to spend it's funds like the NWF. Aslund does seem to support an old opion of mine, that Putin thinks that he knows how to handle the current crisis because he could deal with the big recession and Georgia. However Ukraine is not Georgia and the economic crisis of 14/15 is not 08/09 (nor 1998 for that matter).
All in all Putin does so far a fine job at squeezing the Russin economy and he is coming closer to the breaking point. We will see things develop. Lots of variables involved with commodity prices not the least ones.Naturally, Putin is reacting against this blow, but his reactions are not the least reassuring. His bottom line is that he knows how to handle crisis because he did so in 2008–09. That is true, but none of the G-20 leaders did so worse than Putin, and now he wants to repeat his failure. His flawed idea then was to pour money into state corporations and his cronies, and they have grown even worse in recent years. Then, Putin wasted $200 billion on his flawed bailouts. Now, he can only afford $38 billion on his anti-crisis program, which will not make any difference, which is perhaps the best one can say about it.
Last edited by Firn; 02-27-2015 at 10:16 PM.
... "We need officers capable of following systematically the path of logical argument to its conclusion, with disciplined intellect, strong in character and nerve to execute what the intellect dictates"
General Ludwig Beck (1880-1944);
Speech at the Kriegsakademie, 1935
Gazprom Neft Reports Massive Quarterly Loss After Ruble, Crude Plunge http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...e-crude-plunge …
Will oil prices double dip and hit a new low at $30? http://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Price...cond-Time.html … pic.twitter.com/BV7MkrVmi1
Economy Min says Russia's 'anti-sanctions' fueled unprecedented food-price rises in Jan: +22.1% for fruits/vegetables
Squeezed? 45% of Russians say directly affected by sanctions now, up from 5% in Aug (50% not affected, vs 92% in Aug) http://wciom.ru/index.php?id=459&uid=115168 …
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 03-04-2015 at 10:05 AM.
Selling the Family Jewels by Stephen Blank http://www.interpretermag.com/sellin...family-jewels/ … - Russia selling off assets to China
The ruble recovered in recent months considerable against the USD and obviously more so against the Euro which push against inflation. Much depends of course on the commodity prices, especially oil and the depth of the Russian recession.
The state is under increasing pressure to act as the lender or equity injector of the last resort for the many businesses just above water.
Of course it was easy to predict that due to the high foreign portion of the value chain costs would be driven up by the ruble rout. Factor in the expected contraction of demand and it becomes quite a problem...Russia will provide carmakers with 10 billion rubles ($166 million) in subsidies, the government said Thursday, in a bid to support an industry struggling to cope with the country's economic downturn.
However, the industry is only expected to return to growth in 2016 and is therefore likely to need more government support than the measures announced on Thursday.
In addition to lower sales car producers have seen their margins fall by 10 to 15 percent as a result of the ruble weakening, which has increased the cost of imported components, as well as higher metals prices, the government said on its website.
Last edited by Firn; 03-20-2015 at 06:36 PM.
... "We need officers capable of following systematically the path of logical argument to its conclusion, with disciplined intellect, strong in character and nerve to execute what the intellect dictates"
General Ludwig Beck (1880-1944);
Speech at the Kriegsakademie, 1935
Serbank CEO stated yesterday that over 45% of all Russian banks will be facing serious financial difficulties within the next four months. the finance sector is facing some serious and major issues and there seems on answers.
Then this yesterday as well:
Russian central bank: 1/5 banks experiencing difficulties. 2/3 banks will account for a loss, end of 1st quarter. http://top.rbc.ru/finances/20/03/201...79471b923eaa6c …
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