In running react drills for Marines in embassies, I learned how much harder it was for them to deal satisfactorily with less lethal intruders. They were far better prepared (mindset, equipment, posture, etc.) to deal with the fantasy deadly ninja teams than with a relatively harmless hooligan or activist. The Kent State flowers-in-rifles picture always came to my mind. And it froze them. We're reacting to having similar things happen to us on a much larger and deadlier, higher stakes scale.

We have seen that good capabilities in COIN are not lesser included capabilities for major theater war (MTW). They are different capabilties. In many ways, more complex and more challenging for the individual and small unit than MTW. But that doesn't mean that the reverse is true, that MTW is a lesser included capability of COIN. I happen to believe that the individual who can do COIN well can more readily adapt to MTW than vice-versa, but the scope and scale of the equipment, organization, and realted collective skillsets for MTW prevent a true two-fer in that direction. For a tiny window into that, picture a 1990s Bn from 1st Marines, all MEU(SOC)'d up, trying to do a CAX -- about as painful as 7th Marines in boats.

The sole remaining superpower is, almost by definition, not going to go toe to toe with a peer competitor. So we need to continue to adjust the "loaded for bear" idea that dominated the last decades, and reload for squirrel. History shows that our military's subsistence diet is squirrel, even when there are other bears out there.

Unfortunately, we don't need a peer to have a MTW requiring conventional skills, and the consequences of losing a MTW are at least as painful and probably far more immediate than of being neutered in our inability to successfully prosecute a small war or COIN. Even the baby bears have claws and teeth, and the cornered squirrels bite like hell.

So, we can't afford to suck at either, and it isn't good enough to optimize one since there is no two-fer. But we can't afford to field the dream team for either type of war, let alone both. It is a vexing problem.