The Baltic states (catch all)

[kaur]

make Swedes worry ...

Foreword

In spring 2007 Estonia was subjected to an Internet blockade
lasting several weeks. During this time the net did
not work normally. It became hard to reach authorities
and the mass media via the Internet, for a brief period
Internet banks had to interrupt their business, and for
several extended periods it was hard to communicate
with the rest of the world via the Internet.

How would Sweden cope with a similar situation?

http://www.krisberedskapsmyndigheten...ser_2008-2.pdf

[kaur]

This exercise started yesterday in Estonia.

Singing Revolution

The Singing Revolution is a commonly used name for events between 1987 and 1991 that led to the restoration of the independence of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania.[

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Singing_Revolution

Estonian song and dance celebration 2014. Almost 100 000 participants.

http://2014.laulupidu.ee/en/

[kaur]

Supersize panoramic photo from the event. Use the buttons on the right hand. Maximize the photo to full screen ja use the mouse.

http://laulupidu.postimees.ee/284734...rast-laulupidu

[BrentWilliams]

I thought this was interesting enough to start a new thread. The base question is broader then the thread title, I think. Basically, will Russia expand its aggressive behavior to NATO members?

http://www.vox.com/2014/9/5/6110037/...icer-kidnapped

On Friday morning, less than 48 hours after President Obama delivered a speech in Estonia warning that Russian aggression against Estonia could trigger war with the US and NATO, Russian security forces have seized an officer with Estonia's state security bureau at gunpoint and taken him into Russia.

Estonia says the officer was kidnapped (or "abducted") on Estonian soil and taken across by force. Moscow says the Estonian officer was on Russian soil and detained with a gun, 5,000 euros and "materials that have the character of an intelligence mission." Nearby Estonian police radios were reportedly jammed during the incident.

[davidbfpo]

A British report on the incident adds more context:http://www.theguardian.com/world/201...MCNEWEML6619I2

[carl]

Yes, Russia will expand its aggression toward everybody everywhere. They will continue to do so and increase the level until they are stopped, physically stopped-as in a crook isn't stopped until a cop collars him or the neighbors beat him up. Since Russia is a dictatorship, that means Putin himself has to be hurt. That means a lot of Russians have to die and a lot have to be impoverished through actions of the West and not so West. That will hurt him politically. And he had to be hit in his wallet. That is probably much more easily done than people think because I suspect most of his billions are not in Russia but in the West. What fool would keep most of his money in Russia? So his money could be got at.

Of course it will take a little bit of nerve on the part of the West to do that. Just a little. And that is the tragic part of this whole thing, it wouldn't take much but we can't even get up the little nerve it would take. This is like the scene in Of Mice and Men where Curly is punching Lenny in the face but Lenny doesn't reach down and break his hand, he just continues to take it.

David, there is one thing I haven't seen commented on given Russia's newly found appetite for mischief making. I haven't seen anybody comment on the possibility of them attempting to take advantage of separatist sentiment in Great Britain. Have you seen anything about that?

[davidbfpo]

Carl asked:

David, there is one thing I haven't seen commented on given Russia's newly found appetite for mischief making. I haven't seen anybody comment on the possibility of them attempting to take advantage of separatist sentiment in Great Britain. Have you seen anything about that?

I have not spotted any such coverage; to be fair I do not follow RT for example. As the referendum day gets closer media coverage is growing e.g. BBC World Service has an Arab reporter there.

[davidbfpo]

Amongst all the nations wondering what their future is as Russia asserts itself Estonia has a special perspective and fear that NATO will not protect it one day.

This short paper (8 pgs) by an Estonian author 'Nothing New in Hybrid Warfare: The Estonian Experience and Recommendations for NATO' offers:

This brief describes current and historic thinking about hybrid warfare, arguing that hybrid tactics are not as new as it often may seem. Based on Estonia’s example, this brief outlines some counter-action activities that can be initiated at the national level. Finally, it suggests action NATO could take against the hybrid threat during the time between the summits in Wales and Warsaw in 2014 and 2016

Link:http://www.gmfus.org/wp-content/blog...onia_Feb15.pdf

[davidbfpo]

In January 2015, the Lithuanian Ministry of Defense published a manual for the Lithuanian people to use in case of a foreign invasion. It notes that “citizens can resist aggression against their country not only through armed [struggle]. Civilian-based defense or nonviolent civil resistance is another way for citizens’ resistance against aggression. (…) This method is especially important for threats of hybrid war.” The Lithuania manual statement captures the essence of this study: recognition of the threat to European countries of unconventional warfare launched by Russia, understanding of the limitations inherent in armed response, and acknowledgement of the potential of nonviolent resistance in countering aggressive hybrid war.

Link:http://advanced.jhu.edu/academics/gr...ej-bartkowski/

[davidbfpo]

Much has happened to the three states since the last post here; a number of posts are on the Ukraine threads as all three view Russia as a 'clear and present danger'. There's also a current thread on one's states assessment of hybrid warfare and that will be merge dhere now.

This is a short commentary on one, Latvia although Lithuania and Estonia get a mention:http://strifeblog.org/2015/03/17/lat...s-left-behind/

[davidbfpo]

A short article citing Lithuania's top soldier:http://www.baltictimes.com/lithuania...WNx4Ww.twitter

[Bill Moore]

A short article citing Lithuania's top soldier:http://www.baltictimes.com/lithuania...WNx4Ww.twitter

They get it, Mao and others did the same thing to protect their states/societies against subversion.

The fifth lesson learned, according to Zukas, is that the society has to be prepared to act if there is a war. In early 2015 the Ministry of National Defence introduced a publication entitled "What We Must Know to Prepare for Extreme Situations and War". Zukas says that a joint mobilisation and civic resistance system is being developed. Public-spiritedness and patriotism are currently being promoted, and information about the Lithuanian armed forces and opportunities to undergo military training is also being advertised.

[kaur]

Estonian think tanker about Russian threat.

Moscow Lacks Available Forces to Seize and Hold Baltics, Estonian Military Expert Says

But Jaan Murumets, a senior Estonian military analyst who now works at Tallinn’s Center for Defense Studies, says that there is another reason why Russia will not invade: it lacks the available forces to seize and then hold the territory of the three countries and control their borders

http://windowoneurasia2.blogspot.be/...-to-seize.html

[omarali50]

The Ukrainians have some thoughts about what could be done

http://empr.media/opinion/analytics/...imise-solution

[davidbfpo]

More of an update on the theme of non-violence and the Open Democracy article's title is 'Countering hybrid war: civil resistance as a national defence strategy':https://www.opendemocracy.net/civilr...efence-strateg

The first paragraph:

Since the annexation of Crimea and the start of conflict in eastern Ukraine, the Russian form of hybrid war that spearheaded these events has raised significant concerns among eastern European states about an effective response to non-traditional warfare. Russia’s hybrid war – a term meaning a mixture of conventional and irregular warfare – has presented a vexing problem to conventional armed defense. It also demonstrates the need to determine whether a national strategy of nonviolent civilian defence can be a viable option for the current and potential victims of hybrid war to fight back non-militarily.

Puzzled by this reported opinion polling in Poland:

A recent opinion poll in Poland, however, showed a far more nuanced gamut of responses. Last month, the survey asked Poles what they would do if their state faced armed invasion by another country. Tellingly, 37 percent of respondents – the equivalent of almost 12 million Polish adults if applied to the nation’s population – said they would resist foreign aggression “not by fighting with arms, but by engaging in other, non-military activities.” Only 27 percent declared it would take up arms. The remaining would emigrate, were undecided or would surrender.

[davidbfpo]

Well this is a surprise:

Estonian online daily, Postimees Online, has reported Germany will send rotating infantry troops to Estonia in 2016....Speaking to Postimees Online, the head of Germany’s defence committee, Hans-Peter Bartels, said: “Basically, a rotating company will be sent to three Eastern European countries for a few months, maybe for three months, to take part in exercises.”

Link:http://www.baltictimes.com/germany_w...aly5YU.twitter

Now if others followed this example that should alter Putin's calculus IMHO. IIRC of NATO's twenty-eight members only one has no military, Iceland. So twenty-seven companies divided by three Baltic states, nine companies on rotation would easily manage short tours.

[Bill Moore]

Maybe Germany is countering the so-called Intermarium proposal? See the link at omarali50's post.

NATO, EU, and U.S. need to do a better job of countering Russia propaganda regarding the Baltic states. They were independent, Estonia was fought over between Sweden and Russia (changed hands a couple of times). During WWI, the USSR signed an agreement with Germany that gave Estonia to Germany, then after Germany was defeated, Russia invaded, and the British fought a few naval battles until Russia recognized Estonia's independence. The USSR invaded again in 1940s and imposed a brutal regime (of course, it was Stalin). Then the Germans again, then the Soviets again. Neither were welcomed, in fact Estonians resisted Soviet rule well into the 1960s (resistance movement called the Forest Brothers). Bottom line is Russia's claims are illegitimate. Glad to see the new Germany stepping up.

[kaur]

I'd like to add to Bill's chronology this event. I think Russians did the same thing successfully 90 years later in Crimea. In Estonia they failed:http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1924_...%A9tat_attempt

[kaur]

Sunday, May 24, 2015
Narva is Not Next, Kasekamp Says

Paul Goble

Staunton, May 24 – Since Moscow’s annexation of Crimea and its continuing subversion of other parts of Ukraine, many have asked whether one or another of the Baltic countries might be Vladimir Putin’s next target, given that his strategic goal is clearly the breaking apart of Europe and the United States and discrediting or even destroying NATO.

http://windowoneurasia2.blogspot.be/...kamp-says.html

[davidbfpo]

A short report by Edward Lucas, usually a writer for The Economist, but published by a previously unheard of US think tank that focusses on teh Baltic States: http://t.co/5ylOnZf7wX

The Summary:

urope’s new front-line states are the Nordic five (Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway and Sweden), the Baltic three (Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania), plus Poland. These countries (the NBP9) share a common concern about a revisionist and rapidly rearming Russia. On paper they are rich enough to defend themselves: their combined gross domestic product (GDP) is $2.3 trillion, roughly a third more than Russia’s $1.7 trillion. But the NBP9 are divided—into NATO and non-NATO, EU and non-EU, big and small, rich and poor, heavy spenders on defense and free riders. These countries’ strategic incoherence, their resulting inability to defend themselves without outside help, and the threat this creates to NATO’s credibility in the region make the NBP9’s security an issue of global importance. Only the United States can spur the NBP9 to start the close security and defense cooperation needed to counter the Russian threat.
This report was presented by the author as a draft in May 2015, during the CEPA Strategic Assessment Group meeting at Helenow Palace, Poland. The Strategic Assessment Group is an ongoing effort at CEPA, which brings together prominent U.S. and Central European strategists and defense planners. The goal of the group is to assess the changing strategic enviornment for frontline NATO member states as a result of the war in Ukraine. The recommendations reflect the inputs from members of the Group.