So Obama, Hollande and Merkel pressured the Ukraine to compromise on Minsk 2 AND yet not a single point has been implemented by Russia--so are they assisting Putin to "save face" and did they with this move throw the Ukraine under the bus for "business as usual"?????Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09
The "special status" was passed as per their pressure AND WHAT was the mercenary response ie Russian response----WAR.
Plotnitsky (LPR): "Better war than deception" 16 July stmt about not getting 'special status' http://vk.com/wall-82643692_32203?reply=32211 … pic.twitter.com/xeFMnTO7xl
Plotnitsky's (now deleted) statement (16 July 2015) grabbed as is from Google Translate: pic.twitter.com/KAXitm5Oqb
The reason we tweet this is because Plotnisky (LPR) ended his statement about not getting 'special status' with "Better war than deception."
The Plotnitsky (LPR) statement "Better war than deception." is being deleted faster than we can look for them! pic.twitter.com/z05SvHtpAO
Alternate source (some more have already been deleted on VK_com) http://m.lnrnews.net/news/zajavlenie...ainy-9286.html …
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 07-16-2015 at 06:11 PM.
So is Nuland now backtracking in the face of Russia overt and clear aggression with this latest offense.
We want to ensure #Ukraine lives up to the #minskagreements by adopting changes to Constitution, so that other side has no excuses-V.Nuland
So where is the equal pressure on Putin?????
Especially in the face of complete Russian non compliance with Minsk 2 or is "saving Putin's face" more important than creditability.
Video and photos of the Russian troops that have crossed into Georgia-----
PT - Pictures of 'unknown armed men' on #Georgia|n territory:
http://www.stripes.com/news/europe/g...setia-1.358236 … pic.twitter.com/fBWmoyYGub
I'll just say it: those "armed men" (L) look like elite #Russia troops (R) http://www.stripes.com/news/europe/g...setia-1.358236 … pic.twitter.com/5NW8mEhy7R
First footage of 'unknown armed men' which crossed into #Georgia|n territory:
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=WxRCNcvk9SE&t=27 …
Today one year ago MH17 was shot down by Russian supported mercenaries using Russian supplied BUK ---crew itself was Russian.
Critical video that just was found on the internet------
Disturbing new #MH17 video 'DPR' militia arriving at crash site. Looting. Saw pilot crawling. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j4zQKUVPfAQ … pic.twitter.com/zftfhPa1lJ
Putin: "Manipulation with #MH17 tragedy versions - unacceptable"... OK, PUTIN!
original - https://twitter.com/mudzhyri/status/621694683727704065 … pic.twitter.com/SDQVojR77o
Dutch prosecutors on MH17: There will be charges of murder and possibly charges of war crimes http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...rwhelming.html … via @RolandOliphant
Eliot Higgins @EliotHiggins
Starting in 35 minutes @MH17Live will recreate the events of July 17th 2014 in real time using open source information #MH17
Simple pro-Russian farmer/rebels built this concrete communications equipped firing range in days #Sontseve #Ukraine pic.twitter.com/LvRQiKSYTG
Russia|n 3rd Brigade, special forces #GRU soldier Krivki was filmed by GWP @#Luhansk airporthttps://youtu.be/S4TfQmPT8-k pic.twitter.com/WY6xslrQSj
VIDEO At least 15 tanks of 'Cossack regiments' of Russian Hybrid Army training in Ukraine.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_y4omIHSH58 … pic.twitter.com/Bm3HaURkcL
These trucks have been/are used by Russians to secretly shell occupied civilian areas and then quickly get away. https://twitter.com/Liveuamap/status/621751264477605892 …
IMPORTANT indicator of ongoing pre Russian offensive----Spetsnaz attempts break through again
Tonight #Ukraine forces repelled 2 attacks of diversion squads of Russia-led terrorists near #Avdiivka & Staryi Aidar - #ATO press center.
Ukraine's President @Poroshenko told @CAmanpour, #CNN "I have intelligence data that Russia will launch offensive" http://edition.cnn.com/videos/world/...ists/amanpour/ …
Descriptions of #MH17 evidence inc 'overwhelming', 'damning', 'convincing'. #Russia losing credibility by the day. pic.twitter.com/I0WoG3RONl
Full transcript: Russian-backed rebels ransack the wreckage of MH17 in shocking 17-minute video http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/new...-1227444629703 …
A year ago the world saw the real face of "Russian spring"... pic.twitter.com/Woo1ZbfMc9
A Buk 9M317 missile destroyed #MH17.
#Ukraine does not have 9M317 missiles.
But #Putin's #Russia has thousands... pic.twitter.com/DeZfTRiZof
Separatist communications discussing the Buk intercepted by the SBUhttps://youtu.be/MVAOTWPmMM4?t=3m5s … pic.twitter.com/nSmjQEw6H0
Interesting vehicle has been spotted and social media is tracking I--evidently definitely Russian Army-spotted yesterday
Donetsk - More details of a covered missile system sighted in the city
https://twitter.com/666_mancer/statu...69167352922112 … pic.twitter.com/jq0OlrPqGZ
SBU recognized Acting Consul General of RF in Odessa persona non grata -handed a note demanding an immediate leave UA.http://www.sbu.gov.ua/sbu/control/uk...4&cat_id=39574 …
Russians intensified aerial recon in Luhansk area, 26 UAV's spotted yesterday http://liveuamap.com/en/2015/17-july...n-luhansk-area …
Ukraine Security @ServiceSsu captured one more terrorist of Russia-led 'Somali' armed gang. pic.twitter.com/t8W6pPYY3T http://twitter.com/ServiceSsu/status...com/t8W6pPYY3T
Russian propaganda outlet LifeNews was first at disaster site. Here's their #MH17 footage they later deleted:In Remembrance of 298 civilians killed by a Russian Buk missile in a war that did not involve them by a country that does not nor has never valued human life if it drives their political ends.
It bodes us well to revisit what has been supported by solid open source social media analysis since the day of the shot down of MH17-Russia was responsible and five Russian lies later nothing they say changes that simple fact.
https://youtu.be/j1XSvxCfIuo
Snizhne - A Buk missile launcher is filmed heading south out of town. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MiI9s-zWLs4 …
Snizhne - A Buk missile launcher is photographed moving under its own power pic.twitter.com/BzcSiU3DRm
Snizhne "an anti-aircraft gun...they are going to fire at planes" https://twitter.com/iTasig/status/489727112874835968 …
RIA apologising for that MH17 quiz now, says its editors have been "taken off" work, whatever that means https://twitter.com/rianru/status/621984323034607616 …
@GrahamWP_UK #Fiblips hero Strelok bragging about the shoot down of #MH17 until he realized it was a civilian flight. pic.twitter.com/eEI3J6xyha
SBU intercept, 17Jul'14: DNR terrorists report to #Russia general Kozitsyn on shooting #MH17
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BbyZYgSXdyw … pic.twitter.com/CADLKY2WgW
Only 1 day after #MH17, #Ukraine's SBU already showed the DNR terrorists did it w #Russia Buk
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G2rmN7jeX8A … pic.twitter.com/tvqN0yyV0F
Today all #Russia "journalists" working for #propaganda must share responsibility for #MH17 - they also helped to kill & then cover up crime
Pictures
The #killers of #MH17 use the memorial service at the crash site for their #propaganda.
pix:@ChristopherJM pic.twitter.com/AeCaafnasK
17/7/14: Children cheer downing of #MH17 by DPR
17/7/15: Children celebrate DPR at #MH17 site
(pic: @JeroenAkkermans) pic.twitter.com/Lbq59REtIQ
Never seen #MH17 aftermath vid shows #Russia DNR gunmen looting passenger luggage @ crash-site
http://www.news.com.au/travel/travel...-1227444676268 … pic.twitter.com/lQBFoeOQbu
taken from Russian FB –VK account
18 days before #MH17 was shot down:
"#Buk anti-aircraft missiles will defend airspace over Donetsk"
v/ @Pavel_XII pic.twitter.com/8LAfdHjLjH
After that brief apology to #MH17 families, Russian RIA news continues its 24/7 anti-Ukraine propaganda. pic.twitter.com/rxxX0ca7dZ
Deleted July 17th @lifenews_ru TV report BEFORE it was known that #Russia's DNR had shot down #MH17 w/ BUK
http://ukrainewarlog.blogspot.co.uk/p/blog-page_26.html …
@vkontakte
My debut for @Reuters: Russia-Ukraine conflict: Proof of MH17 tragedy’s real culprits grows http://reut.rs/1MeM0MA pic.twitter.com/Ot1qZbSjfQ
Michael Weiss @michaeldweiss
Wanna read 7,000 words on how we know the separatists shot down MH17? Go on, of course you do: http://www.thedailybeast.com/article...down-mh17.html …
Putin: "We have no 9М38-M1 missiles".
Summer 2013 #Russia's 53rd Air Defense brigade fires 9М38-M1 at Kapustin Yar:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=weRsGuwhVKw …
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 07-17-2015 at 11:49 AM.
Russian foreign Ministry is “running hard for cover” and desperately trying to extract itself from the MH17 UNSC rejection of a tribunal.
The Russian FM Larvov seems to have a failing memory concerning previous civilian air crashes—let’s start by the total lack of the Russians in assisting on the investigation of the Polish civilian aircraft downed killing the entire Polish government and they still have not returned the crash debris for analysis to Poland and they just last month rejected another Polish request for the return of that debirs—wonder why is that???
Secondly, normally all air crash investigation teams are formed by the manufacturer, one or two of the international air crash investigation organizations and investigators from the countries who had lost civilians in the crash—IN this case there was not a single Russian onboard and the aircraft was not Russian built or maintained AND from the beginning Russia was under suspicion of being directly involved so does the criminal suspect get a chance to dictate the actual criminal investigation—never actually ---even in Russia law.
HERE is the SUPER BIG “if”—“IF” Russia had no involvement THEN why the bitter rear guard fight over a tribunal??? WHY are they not cheering on the tribunal IF they are so sure the Ukrainians downed MH17?? WHY have they repeatedly attempted multiple ever changing “so called theories” all in an attempt to blame the Ukraine???
Russia has been scrambling since the shot down with their various "lie theories" simply to cover their tracks since they never had any idea what the Dutch investigation was turning up so they threw a massive web of lies to cover any aspect of the investigation and now they got "caught out" in their web of lies. If one goes back to the actual downing--Russian mercenaries refused for days to allow a recovery effort and there were multiple reports of the Russian mercenaries attempting to take away--actually did take away large debris pieces and attempted to tamper with the remaining debris all in the hope of eliminating any evidence AND when they thought they had eliminated all evidence ONLY then did they open up the crash site for recovery.
WHY—because they know the finger of a “war crime” is pointed directly now at Putin and Russia.
All their arguments are simply the Russian propaganda 6Ds-dismay, distract, dispute, distort ALL designed to create doubt and distrust.
MFA Russia ✔ @mfa_russia
#Lavrov: The UN Security Council has never established any tribunals on civil air accidents. Even in the high-profile Lockerbie case
SUPER massive interesting comment by the Russian FM here--Lockerbie was a proven act of international terrorism by a country openly supported at the time by Russia in the UNSC.
MH17 is the perfect example of a "state sponsored war crime"--A REALLY REALLY BIG difference.
MFA Russia ✔ @mfa_russia
#Lavrov: Unfortunately,the resolution hasn't been implemented.The investigation is being carried out without affirming the key role of @ICAO
MFA Russia ✔ @mfa_russia
#Lavrov:Since then,we have been repeatedly calling for this resolution to be implemented in good faith in all aspects pic.twitter.com/P4teK0BXWD
MFA Russia ✔ @mfa_russia
#Lavrov: All our attempts, to organise a discussion of the investigation, were blocked by the countries that are now advocating a tribunal
MFA Russia ✔ @mfa_russia
#Lavrov: No information was provided to #UNSC in accordance w/those bilateral agreements, even though the resolution expressly requires this
MFA Russia ✔ @mfa_russia
#Lavrov: There are two important things for us.First is access for all states concerned to the results of the investigation #MH17
MFA Russia ✔ @mfa_russia
#Lavrov: Second, we operate that only after this can the issue of responsibility of those guilty be considered on a preliminary basis
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 07-17-2015 at 11:27 AM.
While MH17 is being mourned--the WAR is still continuing---and remember the US declared this Russian invasion to be just "an incursion".
Another echelon of russian military equipment near the border with #Ukraine https://youtu.be/thfGImVssk8 via @YouTube
Vans with armed men come to #Ukraine from Russia, in the area of Komsomolske spotted a Russian SAM "Strela" - OSCE http://liveuamap.com/en/2015/17-july...rom-rf--in-the …
ICBMs "Yarsy" and "Topol-M" on battle alert for exercises in #Russia. pic.twitter.com/CrDyPAfTId http://liveuamap.com/en/2015/17-july...-for-exercises …
Latitude 67N SIGINT @uascan
RUAF VHF comms in Baltic Sea. IL20 talking to naval units?
During the last day, snipers fired on Mariinka checkpoint. Berezove checkpoint came under Mortar fire - Border guards
http://dpsu.gov.ua/ua/about/news/news_7908.htm …
Poroshenko: Total of 64,000 Ukrainian troops in war-torn zone http://24today.net/open/474527 pic.twitter.com/yxyBZitLQA
Over 60 attacks on Ukrainian positions just in the overnight period--40 during the day up to 18:00---the war is on since the average of 58 per day has been crossed for the last two weeks.
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 07-17-2015 at 11:52 AM.
A really solid explanation of the changes to the Ukrainian Constitution yesterday by the Rada—well worth reading to fully understand Ukrainian politics.
http://www.odessatalk.com/2015/07/a-...ough-the-rada/
A constitutional cacophony passes through the Rada
July 17, 2015
by Nikolai Holmov
No differently from the theatrics, populism, and cacophony of discord that saw Bill №2217a “On Amendments to the Constitution of Ukraine (concerning the decentralization of power) pass through the Rada yesterday, undoubtedly Ukrainian main stream and social media will be screeching and squawking over the 288 votes in favour for the proposed amendments to the Constitution of Ukraine, and the “decentralisation” of powers these amendments bring – if eventually adopted, which is not guaranteed.
Having garnered 288 votes (300 being a constitutional majority), the Bill now heads to the Constitutional Court for its consideration.
It has to be noted that the Venice Commission is generally in favour having seen the amendments, returned them with “recommendations”, and those “recommendations” were by and large acted upon. Thus any constitutional issues are not likely to be with content but with the procedures of the Bill passing through the Rada – if there were any.
Continued………………………………….
Really long article.
For a little light humor—a combination of all the Russian “shot down theories”.
Our theories on what shot down MH17 in one pic. pic.twitter.com/kKhvWXhxJJ
Lavrov: For a year we wanted a #MH17 UN tribunal. Now that the others agree we've changed our mind.
AND social media open source analysis just keeps piling it on—Russian propaganda trolls are seemingly at a loss for words—their push back is slow, faulty and in space with some of their responses.
In above video of #Russia's 53rd Air Defense brigade appears Buk 212; same Buk a year later on way to #Donbas & #MH17 pic.twitter.com/szcYivTuJo
Who could forget Russia's claims that terrorists never had BUK, dispelled by their own publications/admissions? #MH17 pic.twitter.com/BTgKixMxnj
18 days before #MH17:
"Buk has target range of 20 km. Militia has excellent cookies now for Ukraine air force."
https://twitter.com/NPoklonskaya/sta...28193080758272 …
The moment "rebels" in Eastern Ukraine realized it was a civilian plane #MH17 https://youtu.be/K70igRdKVhA
RT at its 'best', claiming the voices in video footage say that second plane shot down MH17. http://www.rt.com/news/310082-mh17-v...ther-aircraft/ …
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 07-17-2015 at 12:18 PM.
Effects of Russian propaganda------
It's disgusting. #ruscism https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/st...90079364513793 …
DNR youth release balloons for #MH17 victims in Hrabove. Sign reads: "They killed you and they continue to kill us."
Reference armed Russian troops on illegally annexed Georgian territory—WHERE we have not heard much of a US push back on.
http://www.interpressnews.ge/en/poli...hidasheli.html
Our main aim is to prevent a war on our territory
Tina Khidasheli
15:22 17-07-2015
Tense situation in Georgia's #Khurvaleto and #Tsitelubani http://www.interpressnews.ge/en/poli...heckpoint.html … + http://www.interpressnews.ge/en/conf...itelubani.html …Our main aim is to prevent a war on our territory - Tina Khidasheli According to Defense Minister Tina Khidasheli, the policy pursued by the government is the most correct.
She said the main aim of the government is to prevent any war on our territory.
“I am a part of this government; the reason I am a minister is that I think the policy pursued by the government is the most correct, efficient and reliable for our security.
Our main aim is to prevent war on our territory and this is successfully being adhered to by the Georgian government, so far,”- she said.
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 07-17-2015 at 12:17 PM.
Ukrainian nationalism is clearly out of control: Odessa's gubernatorial leadership just hired ANOTHER foreigner.
https://meduza.io/en/news/2015/07/17...eputy-governor …
At the Russian Security Council Putin discussed whether amendments to Ukrainian Constitution correspond to Minsk accords. https://twitter.com/dimsmirnov175/st...11552426819584 …
Maybe Putin needs a refresher--nowhere in the Minsk 2 agreement is defined exactly what that "special status looks like' and it was singed off on by the Vienna Committee of which Russia is a member the last time I checked.
Have decided to assist Putin in understanding the Minsk 2 Agreement since his own designated representative signed it in the name of Russia.
1. you will notice that none of the 11 points has been implemented by Russia AND yet Russia is "concerned about one point"????
2. the Ukraine refuses to negotiate with the Russian controlled mercenaries under the argument "they are illegally occupying Ukraine territory in the name of Russia and were not elected via Ukrainian elections laws to represent the Russian occupied zones".
So let's see being in total non compliance gives Russia the right to say what is and or is not correct under Ukrainian law especially since they have invaded the Ukraine????
Complete Minsk 2 Agreement is as follows;
Some international legal experts say that the "special status" was only to be completed when the first seven critical points had been implemented- as the French and Germans had designed the Agreement to be a step by step approach---BUT PUTIN always turns everything upside-down when he deals with the West--typical Russian negotiation style.12:11PM GMT 12 Feb 2015
• Immediate and full ceasefire in particular districts of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts of Ukraine and its strict fulfilment as of 00.00 midnight (Kiev time) on Feb. 15, 2015.
• Pull-out of all heavy weapons by both sides to equal distance with the aim of creation of a security zone on minimum 50 kilometres apart for artillery of 100mm calibre or more, and a security zone of 70km for MLRS and 140 kilometres for MLRS Tornado-S, Uragan, Smerch and tactical missile systems Tochka U.
– for Ukrainian troops, from actual line of contact;
– for armed formations of particular districts of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts of Ukraine, from the contact line in accordance with the Minsk memorandum as of Sept. 19, 2014
• The pullout of the above mentioned heavy weapons has to start no later than the second day after the ceasefire and finish within 14 days.
• This process will be assisted by OSCE with the support of the Trilateral Contact Group.
• Effective monitoring and verification of ceasefire regime and pullout of heavy weapons by OSCE will be provided from the first day of pullout, using all necessary technical means such as satellites, drones, radio-location systems etc.
• On the first day after the pullout a dialogue is to start on modalities of conducting local elections in accordance with the Ukrainian legislation and the Law of Ukraine “On temporary Order of Local Self-Governance in Particular Districts of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts,” and also about the future of these districts based on the above mentioned law.
• Without delays, but no later than 30 days from the date of signing of this document, a resolution has to be approved by the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, indicating the territory which falls under the special regime in accordance with the law “On temporary Order of Local Self-Governance in Particular Districts of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts,” based in the line set up by the Minsk Memorandum as of Sept. 19, 2014.
• Provide pardon and amnesty by way of enacting a law that forbids persecution and punishment of persons in relation to events that took place in particular departments of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts of Ukraine.
• Provide release and exchange of all hostages and illegally held persons, based on the principle of “all for all”. This process has to end – at the latest – on the fifth day after the pullout (of weapons).
• Provide safe access, delivery, storage and distribution of humanitarian aid to the needy, based on an international mechanism.
• Define the modalities of a full restoration of social and economic connections, including social transfers, such as payments of pensions and other payments (income and revenue, timely payment of communal bills, restoration of tax payments within the framework of Ukrainian legal field)
• With this aim, Ukraine will restore management over the segment of its banking system in the districts affected by the conflict, and possibly, an international mechanism will be established to ease such transactions.
• Restore full control over the state border by Ukrainian government in the whole conflict zone, which has to start on the first day after the local election and end after the full political regulation (local elections in particular districts of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts based on the law of Ukraine and Constitutional reform) by the end of 2015, on the condition of fulfilment of Point 11 – in consultations and in agreement with representatives of particular districts of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts within the framework of the Trilateral Contact Group.
• Pullout of all foreign armed formations, military equipment, and also mercenaries from the territory of Ukraine under OSCE supervision. Disarmament of all illegal groups.
• Constitutional reform in Ukraine, with the new Constitution to come into effect by the end of 2015, the key element of which is decentralisation (taking into account peculiarities of particular districts of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts, agreed with representatives of these districts), and also approval of permanent legislation on special status of particular districts of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts in accordance with the measures spelt out in the footnotes, by the end of 2015.
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 07-17-2015 at 12:36 PM.
Worth reading---remembering Illarionov was and potentially still is a Putin advisor
http://windowoneurasia2.blogspot.de/...-get-deal.html
Friday, July 17, 2015
Obama has Sold Out Ukraine to Get Deal with Iran, Illarionov Says
Paul Goble
Staunton, July 17 – President Barack Obama has sold out Ukraine in order to get Vladimir Putin’s support for a nuclear deal with Iran, according to Andrey Illarionov. Other commentators, including at least one Ukrainian one, disagree. But almost all expect that Putin will expect gratitude from the US and fear that he may get it.
In a commentary on Kasparov.ru yesterday, Illarionov says that the deal he has warned against for the last 16 months has occurred: the US has sacrificed Ukraine in order to get Putin’s support in talks with Iran and Syria, and it has made this deal “without the participation of Ukraine and at Ukraine’s expense” (kasparov.ru/material.php?id=55A7D54ECA084).
This sell-out began, the Russian commentator says, during US Secretary of State John Kerry’s visit to Sochi when he did not mention Crimea and effectively created together with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov “’the Sochi-Munich format’ of negotiations in the shape of the Nuland-Karasin talks without the participation of Ukraine.”
That in itself achieved one of Putin’s major aims: eliminating Ukraine as a discussant of its own fate and elevating Russia to the level of the United States as a center of decision making about other countries. Then, Illarionov traces the way in which this new “format” worked in the intervening period.
This culminated on July 14, he continues, when Obama told the New York Times the following: ‘Asked if President Vladimir Putin of Russia was a help or a hindrance in concluding this deal, Mr. Obama said: “Russia was a help on this. I’ll be honest with you. I was not sure given the strong differences we are having with Russia right now around Ukraine, whether this would sustain itself. Putin and the Russian government compartmentalized on this in a way that surprised me, and we would have not achieved this agreement had it not been for Russia’s willingness to stick with us and the other P5-Plus members in insisting on a strong deal.”
The American president continued: “I was encouraged by the fact that Mr. Putin called me a couple of weeks ago and initiated the call to talk about Syria. I think they get a sense that the Assad regime is losing a grip over greater and greater swaths of territory inside of Syria [to Sunni jihadist militias] and that the prospects for a [Sunni jihadist] takeover or rout of the Syrian regime is not imminent but becomes a greater and greater threat by the day. That offers us an opportunity to have a serious conversation with them.”
The very next day, US Assistant Secretary of State Victoria Nuland arrived in Kyiv. “The main goal of [her] visit,” Illarionov says, was “to force [Ukrainian President Petro] Poroshenko to change the draft Constitution of Ukraine by including in it references to ‘the special regions of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts,” where pro-Moscow forces control much of the territory.
That is exactly what Poroshenko did, and a number of deputies in Ukraine’s parliament issued a statement about what they believe is “an act of betrayal,” one that denies Ukraine the right of self-determination by legitimizing Russian forces on the territory of Ukraine (facebook.com/oksana.syroyid/posts/1016331355058693?hc_location=ufi).
That international legitimation of the presence of Russian forces on Ukrainian territory taken without any involvement of the Ukrainian state and Ukrainian people, the members of the Verkhovna Rada say, is “the end not only of European prospects for Ukraine” but also represents “the success of the Kremlin’s plan and the end of the Ukrainian state.”
Having quoted that declaration in full, Illarionov observes that Poroshenko has “fulfilled the first point of Putin’s demands on Ukraine” by changing that country’s constitution and that in his effort to do so, the Moscow leader has enjoyed the support of Obama. Now, the question is, will Kyiv meet all the rest of Putin’s demands? And will Obama help with that as well?
These other demands, the Russian analyst says, include a Ukrainian amnesty for all those who fought for Moscow in eastern Ukraine, the implementation of the law on special status for the Donbas and the holding of elections, the adoption by Ukraine of a law on local administration, and the lifting of the Ukrainian economic blockade from these territories.
Illarionov says in conclusion that “there is no doubt that these demands from Putin will be fulfilled.”
Not everyone in Moscow, Washington, or Kyiv agrees with this analysis, of course, and one of the most pointed critiques of it has been provided by Petr Oleshchuk, a political scientist at Shevchenko State University in Kyiv (nv.ua/opinion/oleschuk/kak-putin-prevratilsya-v-amerikanskuyu-marionetku-59600.html).
He argues that “everything is not so simple” as Illarionov supposes and that the suggestion of a simple deal of the kind the Russian analyst does is “too primitive and one-dimensional.”
What does it mean that Obama has “thanked” Putin for his support on the Iranian deal? According to Oleshchuk, only that “the administration of the US president still views Putin as a partner, a difficult one but a partner nonetheless who is needed for the resolution of certain problems.” It doesn’t necessarily signal a deal on anything else.
“Having trapped himself in Ukraine,” the Ukrainian political scientist say, “Putin has made an expensive gift to the American White House.” On the one hand, having condemned himself to international isolation, he has little room for maneuver. And on the other, he has opened the way for sanctions that the West can employ for more than just Ukraine.
Indeed, in Oleshchuk’s view, “having tied himself hand and foot, Putin cannot simply leave, cannot move forward, but cannot be forced either. He now is completely in the hands of the US which has received as a result yet another bonus in the form of the rebirth of NATO as a factor in world politics.”
Oleshchuk’s conclusion: “As long as Putin is ‘in Ukraine,’ he is dependent on others. [And] this dependence can be used. The clearest example is the Iranian issue.” For the US, he continues, there are benefits from ensuring that neither Ukraine nor Russia achieve any advantages” and that the conflict continues.
“Any attempts by Russia to go further will be stopped, because both a victory and a defeat of the Russian Federation would not be “profitable” for the United States. A Russian “victory would mean an imperial passionate explosive and the prospects for a new expansion. Defeat would be the end of the Putin regime and the collapse of the largest country in the world.”
But regardless of whether Illarionov or Oleshchuk is correct, it is certain, Liliya Shevtsov writes, that Putin “will expect gratitude” from Obama for his “assistance” in allowing the US president to achieve his “dream.” And she suggests that such gratitude could take a variety of forms (kasparov.ru/material.php?id=55A7D24BEE92C).
Among them are such issues as missile defense in Europe, a possible international tribunal on the downing of the Malaysian jetliner, and “finally on the war in Ukraine.” Consequently, “we shall see [in the near future] whether interests or principles predominate in American policy.”
Shevtsova does not say, but one could add the ancient observation that gratitude is often not a powerful motivating force but the expectation of gratitude is – and if Putin believes he has a right to that, he may act in ways now that he would not have before Obama gave his interview to the New York Times.
Wrap up of MH17 for today:
Must read: key MH17 witness arrested by Russian Security Service on the day Investigators called for witnesseshttp://lugansk-news.com/oleg-bugrov-...ecret-service/ …
July 17: Russian GRU officer Strelkov didn't hesitate to edit his post after learning not AN-26 but #MH17 was downed! pic.twitter.com/UnLW3kaWRg
Deleted DNR tweet confirming Russian rebels indeed have a BUK-M1 #Ukraine #Russia #Russianinvasion pic.twitter.com/prJ2AMDV13
Another "DNR" witness "heard the other plane move in the direction of Debaltsevo" WTF, is this the most idiotic fake country on earth?
DNR" witness: "I looked up and saw a grey plane, resembling a military destroyer" << what, you DIDN'T take down the license plate number??
Never seen #MH17 aftermath vid: #Russia DNR gunmen phone call suggests pilot of downed plane was ALIVE after crash: pic.twitter.com/8e6pR6e8vA
BREAKING--if true and this is the first mention in social media and not confirmed by any other means---THEN Russia forces are about to cross the demarcation line in a formal Russian offensive.
Urgent talks on #Ukraine in Normandy format is scheduled for Friday evening http://liveuamap.com/en/2015/17-july...t-is-scheduled …
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