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Thread: Ukraine: Russo-Ukr War (June-December 2015)

  1. #1541
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    Tracks show how Russian occupied Dolomite Plant in Horlivka-Holma is used as mobile-artillery fire base pic.twitter.com/bviAfv8hZq

    Wow! This panoramic photo clearly shows how #MH17 wheather patterns matches w contrail photo.
    http://mh17.webtalk.ru/viewtopic.php?id=259&p=30#p27109 … pic.twitter.com/StSubnznBW

    Separatists using heavy artillery against Starognativka.
    Is this the "August provocation" Muscovites are discussing?
    pic.twitter.com/HpiVIinVlr

  2. #1542
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    Here we go again in what the US DoS stated they are "deeply troubled"--maybe they should spend a night with the UAF and then the term "deeply troubled" might not be used......

    Today, situation continues to deteriorate in Donbas. Militants are firing from heavy artillery - ATO press center

    https://m.facebook.com/story.php?sto...38&__tn__=%2As

    During the morning militants again bombarded positions near Starohnativka with 152-mm artillery - ATO press Center

    16:22 [#Stepne] @Darren_Aro It has started to boom in #Dokuchaevsk direction [outgoing from D]

    Donetsk
    19:48 @Ukr_Che They pull it to #Telmanove
    @relictDon [Tactical sign is 9 on photo] https://twitter.com/loogunda/status/631145516051599360

    19:58 #Donetsk @Don_Riccio By sound, they moved towards the center https://twitter.com/loogunda/status/631148309411987460

    19:45 #Donetsk @Don_Riccio Along Vuhlehirska St towards Petrovka circle a tank moved and something else tracked but smaller

    Explodes the myth put forth by #Russia of NATO 'encirclement' & 'aggression' prior to invasion of peaceful Ukraine. https://twitter.com/NATOSource/statu...25896825556993

    19:55 #Starohnativka @Staroignatievca "Ceased. Projectiles in the kitchen gardens [curtilages] on the hill"

    Intense shelling just started in Starohnativka again, smoke rising in the outskirts http://liveuamap.com/en/2015/11-augu...-starohnativka

    19:42 #Starohnativka @Staroignatievca Village outskirts are covered with smoke

    20:05 #Donetsk @idinmor Explosions in the airport direction

    12:20 #Avdeevka @Donetskyi Till noon it has been relatively quiet here

    19:30 #Krasnohorivka @hyeva_maryinka [vk] They are starting provocate one another with assault rifle Bursts

    Russian Spetsnaz attacks failed again to find a break through point in the UAF defenses.

    In addition, around 1pm two sabotage and recon groups tried to break through UKR stronghold. Attack was repelled - ATO press Center

    20:07 @Darren_Aro Recent days on #Slavne-#Berezove frontline can be described as tense. Days and nights. Every half hour something happens.

    20:10 #Dokuchaevsk @Pink_Shark___ 2 RUS hardware items. Towards #Yasniy?
    20:15 Tanks or BMP
    @Shrik_E Sounds like BMP

    Maybe the DoS and the US NSC should ask themsleves--is the above just typical normal every day examples of "deeply troubling"???

    Could they have not found a better description for "war"???
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 08-11-2015 at 05:36 PM.

  3. #1543
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    While controlling 2% of the Rus- occupied Ukr border, the @OSCE observed 1000s of military crossings!
    July 29 report
    : pic.twitter.com/LPCErPEuhu

  4. #1544
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    Counter-UAV drills in #Ukraine pic.twitter.com/R0BU7cW2PX

    It means this video is part of the attack on Lugansk Airport in 2014! https://twitter.com/AlexandruPlesca/...23478826123264

    @DajeyPetros It seems video is unreleased dated 29.08.2014. Sat images showing BTR's:
    http://lostarmour.info/armour/item.php?id=1031
    http://lostarmour.info/armour/item.php?id=946

    T-90a, somewhere on the road Lugansk, Krasnodon, 2014.
    pic.twitter.com/oGAk7yBPti
    via @ravelin_by @Glaz_CBYwnuka


    @JulianRoepcke BTR formerly belonged 23 Motorized Brigade pic.twitter.com/GFbcMrBc

  5. #1545
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    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
    Here we go again in what the US DoS stated they are "deeply troubled"--maybe they should spend a night with the UAF and then the term "deeply troubled" might not be used......

    Today, situation continues to deteriorate in Donbas. Militants are firing from heavy artillery - ATO press center

    https://m.facebook.com/story.php?sto...38&__tn__=%2As

    During the morning militants again bombarded positions near Starohnativka with 152-mm artillery - ATO press Center

    16:22 [#Stepne] @Darren_Aro It has started to boom in #Dokuchaevsk direction [outgoing from D]

    Donetsk
    19:48 @Ukr_Che They pull it to #Telmanove
    @relictDon [Tactical sign is 9 on photo] https://twitter.com/loogunda/status/631145516051599360

    19:58 #Donetsk @Don_Riccio By sound, they moved towards the center https://twitter.com/loogunda/status/631148309411987460

    19:45 #Donetsk @Don_Riccio Along Vuhlehirska St towards Petrovka circle a tank moved and something else tracked but smaller

    Explodes the myth put forth by #Russia of NATO 'encirclement' & 'aggression' prior to invasion of peaceful Ukraine. https://twitter.com/NATOSource/statu...25896825556993

    19:55 #Starohnativka @Staroignatievca "Ceased. Projectiles in the kitchen gardens [curtilages] on the hill"

    Intense shelling just started in Starohnativka again, smoke rising in the outskirts http://liveuamap.com/en/2015/11-augu...-starohnativka

    19:42 #Starohnativka @Staroignatievca Village outskirts are covered with smoke

    20:05 #Donetsk @idinmor Explosions in the airport direction

    12:20 #Avdeevka @Donetskyi Till noon it has been relatively quiet here

    19:30 #Krasnohorivka @hyeva_maryinka [vk] They are starting provocate one another with assault rifle Bursts

    Russian Spetsnaz attacks failed again to find a break through point in the UAF defenses.

    In addition, around 1pm two sabotage and recon groups tried to break through UKR stronghold. Attack was repelled - ATO press Center

    20:07 @Darren_Aro Recent days on #Slavne-#Berezove frontline can be described as tense. Days and nights. Every half hour something happens.

    20:10 #Dokuchaevsk @Pink_Shark___ 2 RUS hardware items. Towards #Yasniy?
    20:15 Tanks or BMP
    @Shrik_E Sounds like BMP

    Maybe the DoS and the US NSC should ask themsleves--is the above just typical normal every day examples of "deeply troubling"???

    Could they have not found a better description for "war"???
    Avdiivka now under heavy #Russia|n artillery fire
    source:
    https://twitter.com/bamr69/status/631152374673973248

    20:30 #Krasnohorivka @hyeva_maryinka [vk] ceased

    20:34 #Donetsk @UkraineSuper1 "Regular outgoing, from #Mineralne-bypass? Heavy"

    20:33 #Avdiivka @owl_ok [vk] In Melmitsa area a gas pipe is on fire

    #Avdiivka is under heavy russian shelling right now, loud explosions.

    20:24 #Avdiivka @owl_ok According to [internet] call-over, checkpoint area under fire

    20:17 #Avdiivka @bamr69 [under shelling w/something very heavy]

    20:28 #Makiivka @VasyaMakeevskiy Volleys in the west, #Mineralne-#Yasynuvata

    20:35 #Donetsk @Buzzing_Rook Calm in Donetsk too. Either #Makiivka or #Yasynuvata shells at you

    Obama, Kerry and the entire US NSC as well as Hollande and Merkel should really pay attention to this below?--in the face of massvie Russian shellings and ground attacks the Ukraine is still trying it's best to hold to the Minsk 2 Agreement.

    Does not the DoS think the Ukraine deserves a little better verbal spport other than "we are deeply troubled"--come on that is even lame in American English


    20:32 #Avdiivka @bamr69 Ongoing incoming, a house on fire. UKR don't reply

    No Ukr return fire so far!



    20:45 #Luhansk East @ukrainebang RUS UAV flew towards #Stanytsia_Luhanska...

    20:39 #Avdiivka @avdey777ka [vk] Hollow outgoing from #Yasynuvata, heard in Levanesvkogo St

    20:23 #Avdiivka @JuZolyshkaLia First landing was around 20:12. Already 4 of them for now

    20:39 #Avdiivka @bamr69 Wrong, again at town old part . Sadovy, Nechaeva

    20:30 #Maryinka @hyeva_maryinka [vk] In Maryinka it had boomed 2 times in Sovkhos direction

    20:30 #Maryinka @hyeva_maryinka [vk] Almost all the time noisy in #Krasnohorivka direction - shooting or booms.
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 08-11-2015 at 05:54 PM.

  6. #1546
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    In the #Donetsk region #SBU conducted a special operation to eliminate illegal coal mining on an industrial scale.

    https://youtu.be/tzX_8TYL9A0

  7. #1547
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    And more DoS "deeply troubling events".......at least they are in DC and not tonight in the trenches and bunkers of the UAL......

    20:49 #Dzerzhynsk @blessmaster It's getting noisy bit by bit

    20:44 #Avdiivka @VadyXaXa After 4-5 impacts it has ceased

    Intense shelling just started in Starohnativka again, smoke rising in the outskirts http://liveuamap.com/en/2015/11-augu...-starohnativka

    20:56 #Dzrzhynsk @blessmaster I suppose that was saying welcome to UAV https://twitter.com/loogunda/status/631160788837904384

    20:55 #Avdiivka @GirkinGirkin Ongoing landings. "Direct hit at gas booth..."

    Yesterday the Russian military "claimed" the UAL had shelled civilians in a Russian held town --seems the shells hit fields thus proving fired by Russians not UAL as their propaganda declared to the world......

    Aug10 #Telmanove @GirkinGirkin New photos: landings were in the farm area, not in settlement pic.twitter.com/b04Co0wmlb

    During this morning, militants Attacked positions near Donetsk airport with mortars and small arms - Carpathian Sich
    https://m.facebook.com/story.php?sto...46&__tn__=%2As

    Also today, positions in Pisky came under fire from heavy machine guns, small arms and snipers - Carpathian Sich

    Makeevka 21:25
    Ruscist artillery working from #Lisniy-Batman https://twitter.com/VasyaMakeevskiy/...70421983940608

    Avdiivka 21:27
    The second series, again incoming https://twitter.com/bamr69/status/631169989295349761

    21:27 #Avdiivka @bamr69 We have the second series, again incoming have started over

    20:55 #Avdiivka @Donetskyi Damn loud! Minsk accords [are landing] somewhere in Old market area, by sound [incoming]

    Krasnohorivka @hyeva_maryinka [vk]
    20:40 [Borysivka/Stalino road direction: assault rifle & heavy MG bursts, sporadic GL]
    20:55 heavy shots
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 08-11-2015 at 06:51 PM.

  8. #1548
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    4 Ukr photographers narrate one of most tragic episodes of the war in E #Ukraine - #Ilovaysk

    http://empr.media/events/photo-exhib...-opens-in-kyiv

    pic.twitter.com/7htbOF8m3p

    Photo exhibition showing one of the most tragic episodes in the current war in eastern Ukraine – the battle of Ilovaysk has opened in Kyiv. Ukrainian troops successfully conducted combat actions and entered Ilovaysk on 18 August 2014. They managed to take control over the major part of the town. On 23-24 August regular Russian troops entered Ukraine to reinforce militant forces. Then Ukrainian military command is also named accountable for the tragedy. On 28 August Ukrainian forces found themselves surrounded in a pocket by militant groups and Russian regular forces. Combined Russian-militant forces put forward an ultimatum: Ukrainian troops need to lay down arms and leave their equipment, they will be then let out of encirclement. On 30 August Ukrainian forces started moving out of the pocket in organized columns and were deliberately fired upon by the adversary. Hundreds were killed, wounded or taken captive. Until now no uniform numbers on Ukrainian losses in the battle of Ilovaysk are available. In April Chief Military Prosecutor Anatoliy Matios said 458 Ukrainian servicemen were killed and 478 wounded in Ilovaysk pocket. Earlier this month the Prosecutor said 366 Ukrainian servicemen were killed and 429 wounded. Donbas battalion commander Semen Semenchenko estimated Ukrainian losses in the battle as exceeding one thousand troops.

    This key loss is what drives the current UAL and the volunteer BNs when they are fighting against the Russian Army and her mercenaries--it is understood that every time they engage Russian forces they are paying them back for that defeat--one of the best motivators for combat next to fighting to defend your own country and civil society.

    This is the key for their current successes in limiting Russian advances--ask Spetsnaz as they have been taking a beating from the UAL.

    Regardless of what Obama and his NSC think--this battle marks the Russian Army invasion of the eastern Ukraine and it was an invasion not an "incursion".
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 08-11-2015 at 06:06 PM.

  9. #1549
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    No wonder Merkel and her FM have been so silent lately--back to business as usual even with sanctions in place----

    What war? #Germany approves €118m in arms sales to #Russia. Signed Aug 3, 2015.
    http://www.spiegel.de/media/media-37306.pdf
    pic.twitter.com/zsjAzXIZt8

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    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
    Counter-UAV drills in #Ukraine pic.twitter.com/R0BU7cW2PX

    It means this video is part of the attack on Lugansk Airport in 2014! https://twitter.com/AlexandruPlesca/...23478826123264

    @DajeyPetros It seems video is unreleased dated 29.08.2014. Sat images showing BTR's:
    http://lostarmour.info/armour/item.php?id=1031
    http://lostarmour.info/armour/item.php?id=946

    T-90a, somewhere on the road Lugansk, Krasnodon, 2014.
    pic.twitter.com/oGAk7yBPti
    via @ravelin_by @Glaz_CBYwnuka

    @JulianRoepcke BTR formerly belonged 23 Motorized Brigade pic.twitter.com/GFbcMrBc

    Back during the 2014 Russian invasion the 23rd was identified inside the Ukraine and Russia adamently denied it...well it seems it was in fact there....social media open source analysis called it correctly then and now

    Turns out attack on #ATO positions relates to Samara's 23rd Brigade:
    https://www.facebook.com/anton.pavlu...07559295840032
    pic.twitter.com/tEYr6qDRnd
    https://twitter.com/golub/status/631127797830950912

  11. #1551
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    Kremlin (GRU/SVR) repeats the mantra: "Kyiv prepares breakthrough in Donetsk" and DPR/LPR social media spreads the lie like wildfire.

    11 August. Is this the final countdown? @mfa_russia position (lies and propaganda) blaming Ukraine https://vk.com/dnrarmy?w=wall-51146063_4901

    REN TV worked with Russian GRU to make up story: Kyiv concentrates forces on border with DPR for a massive offensive! http://ren.tv/novosti/2015-08-11/raz...oryv-na-doneck
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 08-11-2015 at 06:19 PM.

  12. #1552
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    Stories of Russian troops deserting army over Ukraine conflict contradict Kremlin's assertions

    http://aje.io/aheb pic.twitter.com/V5fm1oWwBw

    Callsign "Hanzhos" from Russian fascist volunteer unit "Vikings" #Cargo200 (incinerated while radioing UA movements) pic.twitter.com/3yvDr8L42W

    Source (or should that be 'sauce'?) https://vk.com/id205292010?w=wall205292010_2639%2Fall

    From yesterdays fighting.......where the Ukrainianian volunteer BN Right Sector drove back a Russian attacking force of tanks and 200 infantry....

    "Nord" from Russian fascist volunteer unit "Vikings" #Cargo200 (insides turned to jelly by blast) #Bila_Kamyanka pic.twitter.com/x7jYnVphfG
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 08-11-2015 at 06:28 PM.

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    On why #Russia is moving South Ossetia's de facto border deeper into #Georgia

    http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-33675488 … pic.twitter.com/1RdOjhhtOF

  14. #1554
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    http://www.unian.info/economics/1110...of-europe.html

    Explained: How to turn Ukraine into the breadbasket of Europe

    11.08.2015 | 21:30

    As the EU standards imply more responsibilities of the farmers, Ukrainian regulatory agencies' job is to check quality and standards instead of meddling with the production, which spawns corruption, the Atlantic Council reports.

    Taras Kachka, former acting President of the American Chamber of Commerce in Ukraine, expressed optimism back in 2014 over the prospects for Ukrainian agriculture after the implementation of the Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area (DCFTA) between Ukraine and the European Union, noting that despite tremendous differences in production standards, Ukrainian legislation is catching up to the EU, reads the article on the Atlantic Council website, penned by Oksana Khomei, graduate of Warsaw's College of Europe.

    Kachka says Ukraine already exports a wide range of agricultural products to many countries. DCFTA would help Ukraine by boosting competitiveness nationally and abroad; the adoption of EU standards will also help, due to gradual globalization of production standards.

    Ukraine has more than 40 million hectares of land available for crops; at least half this land boasts very high soil quality. In 2013, agriculture ranked third in economic importance after services (60.5 percent) and manufacturing (29.6 percent), accounting for more than 10 percent of GDP. In 2016, the Economist Intelligence Unit estimates that agriculture's share of total GDP will rise by 3.3 percent, while manufacturing's share will fall by 7 percent.

    Yet Ukrainian agriculture is constrained by a number of factors including limited land availability; old infrastructure; insufficient financing; ineffective government development policies; questionable production quality; complicated customs regulations and weak control systems.

    Under the DCFTA between Ukraine and the EU, Ukrainian farmers will save €330 million in duties on farm exports to the EU, and €53 million in duties on processed foods. Observers expect the opening of the EU market to Ukrainian agriculture will lead to more investments, increased modernization, and better working conditions.

    For example, the DCFTA envisions duty-free deliveries of 1.6 million tons of grains to the EU during the first year of the accord's implementation, gradually increasing to two million tons by the fifth year; likewise, poultry exports will rise from 16,000 to 20,000 tons over the same period.

    Most of the increase in Ukraine's exports to the EU in 2014 were agricultural products like grains, corn, and edible oils. Transnational corporations export particularly large quantities and meet global production standards. Yet they ship mostly raw products. Only after Ukraine implements EU production standards will the export of canned food and other processed goods be a reality. For now, Ukrainian agribusiness hopes mainly to export more dairy products like milk and eggs, as well as beef and pork. Tsymbal suggested that within two or three years, Ukraine will be able to dramatically increase the export of agricultural products to the 28-member EU market.

    Currently, Ukraine's Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food—with EU funding—is working on a project titled "Comprehensive Strategy for the Development of Agriculture and Rural Lands for 2015-20." The project seeks to boost the competitiveness of Ukrainian agriculture while sustaining ongoing development in rural areas through the adoption of European and international standards.

    With these steps, Ukraine is poised to become the breadbasket of Europe once again.

  15. #1555
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    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
    http://www.unian.info/economics/1110...of-europe.html

    Explained: How to turn Ukraine into the breadbasket of Europe

    11.08.2015 | 21:30
    It should be noted that social media reported recently that the Russian military had stolen over 150 semi trailor truck loads of Ukrainian grain harvested in eastern Ukraine and the entire harvest had been controlled by Russian "farm specialists".

  16. #1556
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    BreakingFootage
    Russian offensive in #Luhansk oblast goes terribly wrong.
    2 BTR-80 lost.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0N0rplcH32g

    at 3:40 Ukr tank on the left appears. They shoot ATG at it. Black smoke from it, but it fires back. APC driver KIA (one/both?)

    holy crap, their communication and discipline are no better than those of schoolchildren

    awesome footage! They act like a bunch of chicken, doesn't look very pro..

    man... they are really stupid, by the way, I confirm Russian Accent


    This is Why #Russia's T-80 Tank Is a Total Disaster http://www.nationalinterest.org/blog...disaster-13550 … pic.twitter.com/zKPjKWHQhh
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 08-11-2015 at 06:51 PM.

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    After two heavy and long days of shelling and ground attack reports--Need some light humor.

    It's been a bad day for one tank crew - Just overheard a turret-wallah complain that a tomcat pissed over the cupola. Cats will be cats!

    We'll get him neutered at the vets - the tomcat that is, not the tank commander

  18. #1558
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    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
    And more DoS "deeply troubling events".......at least they are in DC and not tonight in the trenches and bunkers of the UAL......

    20:49 #Dzerzhynsk @blessmaster It's getting noisy bit by bit

    20:44 #Avdiivka @VadyXaXa After 4-5 impacts it has ceased

    Intense shelling just started in Starohnativka again, smoke rising in the outskirts http://liveuamap.com/en/2015/11-augu...-starohnativka

    20:56 #Dzrzhynsk @blessmaster I suppose that was saying welcome to UAV https://twitter.com/loogunda/status/631160788837904384

    20:55 #Avdiivka @GirkinGirkin Ongoing landings. "Direct hit at gas booth..."

    Yesterday the Russian military "claimed" the UAL had shelled civilians in a Russian held town --seems the shells hit fields thus proving fired by Russians not UAL as their propaganda declared to the world......

    Aug10 #Telmanove @GirkinGirkin New photos: landings were in the farm area, not in settlement pic.twitter.com/b04Co0wmlb

    During this morning, militants Attacked positions near Donetsk airport with mortars and small arms - Carpathian Sich
    https://m.facebook.com/story.php?sto...46&__tn__=%2As

    Also today, positions in Pisky came under fire from heavy machine guns, small arms and snipers - Carpathian Sich

    Makeevka 21:25
    Ruscist artillery working from #Lisniy-Batman https://twitter.com/VasyaMakeevskiy/...70421983940608

    Avdiivka 21:27
    The second series, again incoming https://twitter.com/bamr69/status/631169989295349761

    21:27 #Avdiivka @bamr69 We have the second series, again incoming have started over

    20:55 #Avdiivka @Donetskyi Damn loud! Minsk accords [are landing] somewhere in Old market area, by sound [incoming]

    Krasnohorivka @hyeva_maryinka [vk]
    20:40 [Borysivka/Stalino road direction: assault rifle & heavy MG bursts, sporadic GL]
    20:55 heavy shots
    shelling comes from #Yasynuvata i read. Business as usual.

    21:57 #Komsomolske @hubeshevo Tanks roar has been heard. Direction unclear, but it sounded long, maybe moved towards #Telmanove

    Looks like another large ground attack is building this evening just based on heavy equipment movements being reported.

    22:05 #Novozaryivka,#Starobesheve raion @Ukr_Che Heavy hardware roar is heard
    22:08 A column moves through the village, [no info where]


    Between 21:00-21:30 from Novokaterinovka to #Komsomolske went two columns with about 6-7 tanks. https://twitter.com/Legion1770/statu...72853501665281

    20:58 #Novotoshkivka @lugansk_co_ua Cricket kingdom all around [=quiet]

    Mariupol
    AA-guns shooting towards UAV https://twitter.com/iMariupol/status/631183847623946244

    22:24 #Donetsk Kalinovka @14720Maro and again pats are heard from the south, I can hear but not see them

    Horlivka 22:18
    Shooting (possibly at UAVs) https://twitter.com/sau152mm/status/631182977012244481

    22:31 #Horlivka @sau152mm MLRS?
    22:32 #Dzerzhynsk @hdzerz Oh, I didn't mishear
    22:32 #Horlivka @DobryShubin Yes
    @CosmopolitUa I didn't hear

    22:31 #Dzerzhynsk @hdzerz Grad? Or misheard?
    22:32 #Horlivka @DobryShubin I'vealso heard volley, not full load

    22:33 #Dzerzhynsk @blessmaster Not misheard, sounded strange
    @DobryShubin Volley, but also din
    #Horlivka @ahab7822 incoming fr/east?

    The tank column was moving on route Novokaterynivka-Komsomolske-Novozarivka. Might be in Sontseve soon, and then to E (Novolaspa)?
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 08-11-2015 at 07:41 PM.

  19. #1559
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    Appears that the Russian FM is not so familiar with the ability of the General Assembly in stripping the veto power if that UNSC nation has been declared an aggressor nation--they urgently need to reread the UN Charter--takes a simple majority.

    Russia has been alrerady declared an aggressor state by both the OSCE and PACE.

    MFA Russia
    ‏@mfa_russia #Lavrov: Ideas of scrapping or limiting the #UNSC veto power have been voiced before. We think they have no future

  20. #1560
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    Really good article as it might explain the Ukrainian ability to hold their on right now--they have a total 64K under arms and yet the Russians have 34K inside the ukraine and an estimated 55-85K on the borders and yet they are going no where fast on the ground.

    http://warontherocks.com/2015/08/ukr...of-exhaustion/

    Ukraine and the Art of Exhaustion


    Long-Form | August 11, 2015 | Lawrence Freedman

    Russia’s war against Ukraine is now well into its second year. The contested area in East Ukraine is still marked by regular exchanges of fire and equally regular losses of life. At the end of June, the United Nations reported that 6,500 people had perished in the past year of the conflict, along with 16,000 wounded and that 5 million were in need of aid. There have been regular warnings of new Russian offensives, but these have yet to materialize, and for all the effort put in by both sides, the basic contours of the conflict have barely changed since last September. It is not evident that either side has a strategy for bringing the conflict to a conclusion. The situation can be described as one in which they are both seeking the exhaustion of the other. Exhaustion here does not so much describe a physical state of being unable to continue with the struggle, but more of a mental state – a sense of weariness and futility that leads to a readiness to accept a political compromise that would previously have been rejected. Exhaustion can be the result not only of frustration with a military position, but also of economic pressure and political discontent.

    It is not unusual for conflicts to settle down to probes and pushes after an initial period marked by bigger movements and exchanges of territory, reaching a point where both sides are tired without either being ready to concede. In such situations, there may well be temptations to attempt occasional offensives intended to achieve breakthroughs or at least cause attrition. There may also be, as in this case, attempts by third parties to mediate cease-fires and peace treaties. A conflict that has reached the state of a “mutually hurting stalemate” is often seen to be one ripe for a negotiated settlement. Yet this does not mean that such efforts will succeed: they can instead provide breathing space, a chance to regain energy, and so in the end prolong the struggle.

    It is not unusual for conflicts to settle down to probes and pushes after an initial period marked by bigger movements and exchanges of territory, reaching a point where both sides are tired without either being ready to concede. In such situations, there may well be temptations to attempt occasional offensives intended to achieve breakthroughs or at least cause attrition. There may also be, as in this case, attempts by third parties to mediate cease-fires and peace treaties. A conflict that has reached the state of a “mutually hurting stalemate” is often seen to be one ripe for a negotiated settlement. Yet this does not mean that such efforts will succeed: they can instead provide breathing space, a chance to regain energy, and so in the end prolong the struggle.

    Continued........

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