Flight KGL9268: shot down over Sinai?

[OUTLAW 09]

My guess is they are not flying over the Sinai for illogical reasons, the seats just can't be sold, and they have to show due diligence on being "careful".

No matter the final determination of the cause, this is going to tank tourism even further and hurt Sisi. Cairo bookings are already in the crapper and the bombing of the Mexican convoy in the desert was bad but somewhat manageable through PR spin.

The Egyptians, Airbus, Russians, and EU onlookers are all going to press for a conclusive determination of the cause and a very public release of the results.

If it turns out an engine took a dump or the airframe split, Sisi will demand that the word gets out in order to deflect any concerns of insurgent action in his country. He'll play the Russians to ensure they release those details if that's how it shakes out. Russia can point a finger at Airbus and blame the OEM.

If it turns out to be terrorism, Airbus will be all over that to prove its aircraft was airworthy.

The Russian government has little to lose, no matter how this plays out, so it's pretty even odds that the cause will be released, if it can be conclusively determined.

The really interesting piece of info is that the trail sectuion broke cleanly from the aircraft---the same place had when it was flown by another airline a recent "tailstrike" on landing that was completely repaired--the photo of the tail section shows a truly clean break all around that repair--almost a perfect separation.

A German air investigator is speculating either the repair failed or a bomb in the rear luggage section would have caused the tail section to cleanly separate as well as that was the weakest point in the airframe. He went on to state that this area is normally one of the strongest points in the Airbus construction. He is pointing to a potential repair failure as the tail section was almost intact but would not rule out a bomb.

Russia media #TASS:
Technical "inspection of the aircraft did not take place b4 its flight"
https://archive.is/BjjVH pic.twitter.com/Ran2rmwEYN